基于干旱过程模拟的旱情综合评估方法应用研究

在对国内外干旱评估方法研究进行综述的基础上,指出干旱起因是降水偏少,但发展成灾,则有一个缓慢渐进过程,它不仅取决于降水、气温等气象条件,还与地形、土壤、作物等因素密切相关。考虑到旱灾的成因是多条件的,旱灾的影响和体现也是多方面的,只有结合干旱发展的各阶段,才能全面地认识和评估旱情。利用基于分布式水文模拟的干旱模型,在完整模拟干旱发生发展和结束过程的基础上,整合多种旱情指标,提出能反映干旱发展过程主要特征的旱情综合评估方法体系,并以长江上游川渝地区2006年严重干旱事件为例,开展了应用示例研究。     

我国旱情旱灾情势变化及分布特征

在对1949—2008年县区以上的旱情旱灾数据和资料进行统计和分析的基础上,对我国近60年来旱情旱灾情现状及变化情势从特大干旱、农村饮水、农业干旱、城市缺水、生态环境和旱灾损失等不同的角度,对干旱灾害发生频率、影响程度、发生范围等几个方面进行了讨论。得出了干旱灾害在发生频次、严重程度和发生范围方面都呈现增加的态势,干旱不仅对农业,而且对工业生产以及江河、湖泊、湿地等生态环境造成严重影响,干旱灾害的影响已经波及经济社会发展的诸多领域,未来发生特大干旱的概率增加的结论。     

Statistical characterization of acceleration levels of random vibrations during transport

Random vibration tests are an efficient way to simulate the mechanical vibratory effects caused by transportation. The usual method is only concerned with the frequency distribution pattern of the signal using the average power spectral density. This work offers an additional method based on detailed analysis of instantaneous acceleration levels of a real road transport, which enables modelling of the statistical distribution of these levels. Continuous recording of acceleration signal all along the journey permits confirmation that this statistical distribution is not a Gaussian distribution but a modified Gaussian distribution, for which parameters are estimated and discussed. Therefore, it is possible to evaluate the transport severity by working out the appearance probability of acceleration levels greater than a fixed threshold and also the statistical moments, i.e. second order moment which gives the root mean square value together with fourth order moment (kurtosis) which evaluates the difference between the experimental distribution and the Gaussian distribution. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A model of seam pucker and its applications Part I: theoretical

Abstract

This article considers a simple model of the lock stitch (301) seam, and uses it to derive a measure of the severity of puckering in the seam. The numerical value of the measure depends on the bending properties of the fabrics and thread in the seam, together with the tensions in the threads. How the latter may be estimated is discussed.     

Violence classifications and their impact on observed relationships with key factors in young offenders.

The understanding of violent criminal behavior is hindered by definitional problems in both the legal and research communities. Different definitions of violent criminal behavior and different classifications of the severity of violence are fundamental problems that need to be resolved in order to develop better conceptual models of the precursors to criminal violence that can inform management and treatment of violent young offenders. This study evaluated 6 classifications of violent juvenile offenses derived from the legal system and published research. The authors compare frequencies from different classifications and examine the influence of classifications on observed associations with expected predictor variables. Differences in frequencies and perceived associations between classifications highlight the need to adopt a consistent method of coding violent offenses for research purposes in order to obtain valid results that are capable of informing policy, the judiciary, and the development of effective interventions. The final classification system offers a method of systematic coding based on the type, frequency, and outcome of the violent behavior that distinguishes between levels of violence severity. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Gender and posttraumatic stress: Sexual violence as an explanation for women's increased risk.

Women are approximately twice as likely as men to develop posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), but the cause of this disparity remains unclear. This study evaluated 2 alternative explanations of gender differences in PTSD, one pointing to an intrinsic vulnerability in women and the other emphasizing sexual violence across the life span. To test these competing theories, the authors analyzed National Violence Against Women Survey data from 591 victims of partner aggression. Results suggested that gender, when considered alone, has a small but significant effect on PTSD symptom severity. However, once models factor in sexual victimization history, the latter replaces gender as a key determinant of PTSD symptoms. These findings argue against theories of "feminine vulnerability," instead linking PTSD risk to sexually violent situations. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Factors associated with the likelihood of injury resulting from collisions between four-wheel drive vehicles and passenger cars

The specific effects of vehicular type on the likelihood of an injury occurring are relatively unexplored. This study sought to assess the relative risk of injury to occupants of four-wheel drive vehicles and their counterparts in passenger cars.Data for 1143 occupants from all of the 454 crashes in Oklahoma, in 1995 that involved a four-wheel drive vehicle were used. Multiple logistic regression analysis determined the association between potential predictive factors and vehicular injury. Odds ratios revealed occupancy in a passenger car to be a major predictor of the likelihood of injury. Other factors include the driver being female, driving too fast, travel on curved or level roadways, and being hit laterally or from the rear.     

Coping style use predicts posttraumatic stress and complicated grief symptom severity among college students reporting a traumatic loss.

Problem-focused coping, and active and avoidant emotional coping were examined as correlates of grief and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) severity among 123 college students reporting the unexpected death of an immediate family member, romantic partner, or very close friend. The authors administered to participants, via the Internet, 5 survey instruments that measured demographic characteristics, traumatic event exposure (Stressful Life Events Screening Questionnaire; L. Goodman, C. Corcoran, K. Turner, N. Yuan, & B. L. Green, 1998), complicated grief (CG) severity (Inventory of Complicated Grief--Revised--Short Form; A. E. Latham & H. G. Prigerson, 2004; H. G. Prigerson & S. C. Jacobs, 2001), PTSD severity (PTSD Checklist; F. W. Weathers, B. T. Litz, D. S. Herman, J. A. Huska, & T. M. Keane, 1993), and coping style use (Brief COPE; C. S. Carver, 1997). Results demonstrated that CG and PTSD severity were both significantly positively correlated with problem-focused, and active and avoidant emotional coping styles. The authors used path analysis to control for time since the loss and trauma frequency and found that only avoidant emotional coping remained significant in predicting CG and PTSD severity. Results are discussed in terms of their clinical implications for treating individuals with traumatic losses. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Fuzzy Reliability Assessment of Distribution System with Wind Farms and Plug-in Electric Vehicles

Abstract

The equipment failures are highly uncertain in nature and simple average failure rate will not reflect this uncertainty. The uncertainty level further increases in reliability evaluation due to the integration of wind farm (WF) because of the intermittent nature of wind speed and random charging patterns of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). In this work, the uncertain variables in the distribution system (failure rate, repair time, WF output, PEVs charging and system load factor) are represented as fuzzy numbers to handle the uncertainty. The available uncertain data are used to find the probability distribution function (PDF) of that parameter and is converted into fuzzy membership function using transformation techniques. Failure rate of equipment is converted into failure probability using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. Sampling method is applied to create the PDF of a variable which has average value. Fuzzy severity index (FSI) is proposed to find the importance of an equipment on reliability and is evaluated by measuring the fuzzy distance between the fuzzy reliability indices. The proposed assessment method is validated on modified RBTS bus 2 by comparing with analytical and MCS methods. The proposed method has been tested with integration of WFs and PEVs.     

Prediction parameters of dimensioning of insulators under non-uniform contaminated conditions by multiple regression analysis

Surface tracking on solid insulators is one of the most severe breakdown mechanisms. Accurate assessment of real insulation conditions can be achieved by using the statistical techniques that assist the measurement and monitoring of contamination severity, flashover voltage and leakage current.To address the uncertainties that surround the exact physical mechanisms underlying the mathematical models, it has been shown that it is possible to include in the assessment of insulator performance contamination accumulation that is predicted by using a short historical of chemical components and atmospheric conditions. The results from this work are useful to predict the contamination severity, flashover voltage as a function of contamination severity, leakage current as a function of applied voltage, arc length and contamination severity, and especially to predict the flashover current.