Estimation of Drought Severity on Independent and Dependent Hydrologic Series

The drought severity is the most important parameter for the design of water storage systems in order to alleviate the water shortages during drought periods. The largest drought severity, i.e. severity of a worst drought at a desired truncation level and for the desired return period can be estimated using the truncated normal distribution of the deficits in individual drought years, Poisson distribution of the number of drought spells over a period of T years and geometric distribution of drought duration. The analysis can be done for random or Markovian structure of drought variable (annual rainfall or runoff sequences) distributed normally or lognormally. The study indicated that the severity at a high truncation level is larger than that at a low truncation level over any desired return period T. Severity is also larger in the case of autocorrelated drought variable. A frequency formula for the largest drought severity can be formulated analogous to the flood frequency formula commonly found in the hydrologic texts.     

基于多小波包样本熵的轴承损伤程度识别方法

为了自动辨识不同尺度下的轴承故障,建立了一种基于多小波包系数样本熵和BP神经网络的模式判别方法。针对5种尺度下的轴承外圈故障信号,分别采用GHM多小波包完成三层分解。为了充分利用多小波包的分析优势,将分解后的16个频段信号分别求系数样本熵,并将其作为神经网络的输入向量。通过三层BP神经网络的训练、学习,并与dB10小波包神经网络做了对比研究。结果表明,多小波包样本熵可以区别不同损伤程度的故障信号,且多小波包样本熵与神经网络结合,其辨识精度更高,分类效果明显优于传统单小波,便于轴承损伤程度的自动识别。     

Bias caused by self-reporting distraction and its impact on crash estimates

Over the last decade, driver distractions, such as cell phone use and texting, have become a significant contributor to roadway crashes. Some states now have legislation that severely restricts or bans driver activities deemed distracting. However, many policies and engineered countermeasures are based on self-reported crash data. This raises the issue of potential bias and when not controlled for in analysis supporting policy decisions, can lead to poor allocation of public resources. This study explores the impact of self-reporting driver distraction on the likelihood estimates of the injury severity category of vehicle crashes. Using a two-step correction technique, the presence of bias is tested, when present corrected, and its impact is interpreted. The findings show that self-reporting bias is present in the national database, a database often used to help evaluate policy and engineering options, self-reporting bias understates the true effect of driver distraction on injury severity, and it is not uniform across injury categories. As a result, the forecast of potential savings of countermeasure policies or in-vehicle devices will be distorted leading to inefficient allocation of public resources.     

关于污秽条件下交流绝缘子选取中的修正因数

根据西安电瓷研究所自然污秽试验站和污秽实验室的试验结果导出了污秽条件下交流绝缘子选取中的修正因数。该修正因数考虑了条件下污秽度测量值与人工污秽试验中的污秽度测量值间的差别,考虑了绝缘子外形上的差别。该修正因数只适用于当地条件,它代表了一特有的污秽性质、污秽沿绝缘子表面分布以及污秽现场特有的气候条件(如潮湿条件)的修正。     

The Prevention, Identification, and Cognitive Determinants of Math Difficulty.

This study examined the efficacy of preventive 1st-grade tutoring in mathematics, estimated the prevalence and severity of mathematics disability, and explored pretreatment cognitive characteristics associated with mathematics development. Participants were 564 first graders, 127 of whom were designated at risk (AR) for mathematics difficulty and randomly assigned to tutoring or control conditions. Before treatment, all participants were assessed on cognitive and academic measures. Tutoring occurred 3 times weekly for 16 weeks; treatment fidelity was documented; and math outcomes were assessed. Tutoring efficacy was supported on computation and concepts/applications, but not on fact fluency. Tutoring decreased the prevalence of math disability, with prevalence and severity varying as a function of identification method and math domain. Attention accounted for unique variance in predicting each aspect of end-of-year math performance. Other predictors, depending on the aspect of math performance, were nonverbal problem solving, working memory, and phonological processing. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Effects of daily events on mood states in major depressive disorder.

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is characterized by high negative affect (NA) and low positive affect (PA), but little is known about emotional reactivity in daily life. The authors used experience sampling methodology to investigate changes in NA and PA following minor daily events in MDD compared with healthy participants. Contrary to expectation, MDD participants did not report more frequent negative events, although they did report fewer positive events. Multilevel regression showed that both NA and PA responses to negative events were blunted in the MDD group, whereas responses to positive events were enhanced. NA responses to negative events persisted longer in MDD participants. Depressed participants with a positive family history or longer current episodes showed relatively greater NA responses to negative events. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Buffering effect of religiosity for adolescent substance use.

This research examined the hypothesis that religiosity buffers the impact of life stress on adolescent substance use. Data were from a sample of 1,182 participants surveyed on 4 occasions between 7th grade (mean age = 12.4 years) and 10th grade. Religiosity was indexed by Jessor's Value on Religion Scale (R. Jessor & S. L. Jessor, 1977). Zero-order correlations showed religiosity inversely related to alcohol, tobacco, and marijuana use. Significant Life Events×Religiosity buffer interactions were found in cross-sectional analyses for tobacco, alcohol, and marijuana use. A latent growth analysis showed that religiosity reduced the impact of life stress on initial level of substance use and on rate of growth in substance use over time. Implications for further research on religiosity and substance use are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Learning Facts From Fiction: Effects of Healthy Aging and Early-Stage Dementia of the Alzheimer Type.

Healthy younger and older adults and individuals with very mild or mild dementia of the Alzheimer type (DAT) listened to and read fictional stories containing correct and incorrect facts about the world. Of interest was their use of this story information to answer questions on a later test of general world knowledge. Prior exposure to relatively well-known facts boosted all subjects' ability to correctly answer general knowledge questions. Reading incorrect facts in the stories led to misinformation effects in healthy older adults (although these effects were smaller than those observed in younger adults). DAT individuals showed reduced effects of story exposure; effects were greatest in a situation that reminded DAT individuals that the stories might provide the answers to the questions. Benefits of story reading depended on activation of the semantic network, whereas costs of story reading were more dependent on episodic memory processes. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Analyzing fault and severity in pedestrian–motor vehicle accidents in China

The number of pedestrian–motor vehicle accidents and pedestrian deaths in China surged in recent years. However, a large scale empirical research on pedestrian traffic crashes in China is lacking. In this study, we identify significant risk factors associated with fault and severity in pedestrian–motor vehicle accidents. Risk factors in several different dimensions, including pedestrian, driver, vehicle, road and environmental factors, are considered. We analyze 6967 pedestrian traffic accident reports for the period 2006–2010 in Guangdong Province, China. These data, obtained from the Guangdong Provincial Security Department, are extracted from the Traffic Management Sector-Specific Incident Case Data Report. Pedestrian traffic crashes have a unique inevitability and particular high risk, due to pedestrians’ fragility, slow movement and lack of lighting equipment. The empirical analysis of the present study has the following policy implications. First, traffic crashes in which pedestrians are at fault are more likely to cause serious injuries or death, suggesting that relevant agencies should pay attention to measures that prevent pedestrians from violating traffic rules. Second, both the attention to elderly pedestrians, male and experienced drivers, the penalty to drunk driving, speeding, driving without a driver's license and other violation behaviors should be strengthened. Third, vehicle safety inspections and safety training sessions for truck drivers should be reinforced. Fourth, improving the road conditions and road lighting at night are important measures in reducing the probability of accident casualties. Fifth, specific road safety campaigns in rural areas, and education programs especially for young children and teens should be developed and promoted. Moreover, we reveal a country-specific factor, hukou, which has significant effect on the severity in pedestrian accidents due to the discrepancy in the level of social insurance/security, suggesting that equal social security level among urban and rural people should be set up. In addition, establishing a comprehensive liability distribution system for non-urban areas and roadways will be conducive to both pedestrians’ and drivers’ voluntary compliance with traffic rules.