最小通路法在通信保密装备可靠性建模中的应用

针对通信保密装备可靠性建模难度大的问题,提出了一种新的适用于复杂系统的可靠性建模方法一最小通路法。通过在系统拓扑结构图上搜索出所有能够使系统正常工作的最小通路,建立系统的可靠性模型。该方法基于广义的网络拓扑结构,因此网络的源节点和目标节点不必局限于严格的定义,可以随意指定,具有很大的灵活性。实例证明,该方法可行有效。     

构件软件的可靠性估算模型

把基于构件的软件看作是一个Markov过程,为弥补以往忽视连接件作用的情况,针对过程中不同状态类型,构建出基于不同状态的构件和连接件使用频率计算模型。在此基础上,提出了整个基于构件的软件可靠性计算方法,并将其实例化。与传统的方法相比,该方法不仅提供了一种更精确分析软件可靠性的方法,而且拓宽了模型的应用范围。     

考虑电-氢-热多能互补的微网多目标优化配置研究

氢储能具有储能容量大、储存时间长、清洁无污染、实现多种能源网络互联互补和协同优化等诸多优点,有望成为推动分布式能源发展和提升终端能源利用效率的重要支撑技术。为了提高独立型微网供电可靠性及可再生能源利用率,本文建立了考虑电-氢-热多能互补的独立微网多目标优化配置模型,并基于模拟退火的粒子群算法对目标问题进行求解。最后,通过东北某地独立微网优化配置算例,基于MATLAB平台验证了所提多能互补配置方案较传统电储能配置方案负荷失电率降低了3.18%,可再生能源利用率提高了8.37%,所提配置方案可有效促进可再生能源消纳,保证独立微网的供电可靠性。     

机械结构相似度评价及可靠性预计研究

在用传统的相似产品法进行可靠性预计时,所选取的相似产品与评价对象之间差异较大,会造成预计结果的偏差较大。为解决这一问题,提出了一种基于"功能—运动—动作"结构化分解的可靠性预计新方法。通过明确产品的各大运动功能建立功能层,分析完成各功能的机械部件运动建立运动层,确定实现各机械部件运动的元动作运动单元建立元动作层,建立了可靠性预计的"功能—运动—元动作运动单元"层次模型。引入区间层次分析法,确定了"功能—运动—元动作运动单元"层次模型中各子代运动单元对父代运动单元的可靠性影响权重,并构建了由子代运动单元预计父代运动单元可靠性的数学模型。确定影响评价机械结构相似度的因素,构建了区间数综合评判云模型并选取与元动作运动单元相似的参考结构,以区间数综合评价云模型得出的相似度值修正参考结构的可靠性数据来预计元动作运动单元的可靠性。将元动作运动单元的可靠性预计值代入数学模型,层层预计父代运动单元的可靠性,从而得出整个产品的可靠性水平。最后以数控转台为例进行了分析,得出了可靠性预计值,并将该方法与传统方法进行了比较。结果表明,新的可靠性预计方法具有较好的可行性和较高的准确性。     

基于CNKI源的人因可靠性文献计量学分析

为了客观反映与评价国内人因可靠性研究现状与发展趋势,采用文献计量学分析方法,并以CNKI数据库为数据源,对2006-2016国内人因可靠性领域文献进行分析与评价。采用年份、学科、载文期刊、研究机构、基金资助、文献传播与扩散、关键词等进行分析评述。结果表明:近十年国内该领域文献总体数量呈增加趋势;该学科发展呈现出多学科相互交叉的特点;根据布拉德福文献离散定律,确定期刊分布的核心区域;利用Citespace软件对关键词进行分析,得出人因可靠性分析方法是当前的研究热点。     

Multilevel assessment method for reliable design of composite structures

This work aims at demonstrating the interest of a new methodology for the design and optimization of composite materials and structures. Coupling reliability methods and homogenization techniques allow the consideration of probabilistic design variables at different scales. The main advantage of such an original micromechanics-based approach is to extend the scope of solutions for engineering composite materials to reach or to respect a given reliability level. This approach is illustrated on a civil engineering case including reinforced fiber composites. Modifications of microstructural components properties, manufacturing process, and geometry are investigated to provide new alternatives for design and guidelines for quality control.     

Fitting fatigue data with a bi‐conditional model

The formulation of a probability‐stress‐life (P‐S‐N) curve is a necessary step beyond the basic S‐N relation when dealing with reliability. This paper presents a model, relevant to materials that exhibits a fatigue limit, which considers the number of cycles to failure and the occurrence of the failure itself as statistically independent events, described with different distributions and/or different degree of scatter. Combining these two as a parallel system leads to the proposed model. In the case where the S‐N relation is a Basquin's law, the formulations of the probability density function, cumulative distribution function, quantiles, parameter and quantile confidence interval are presented in a procedure that allows practically any testing strategy. The result is a flexible model combined with the tools that deliver a wide range of information needed in the design phase. Finally, an extension to include static strength and applicability to fatigue crack growth and defects‐based fatigue approach are presented.     

Improved method of estimating the product quality after multiple inspections

A complex product is often inspected more than once in a sequential manner to ensure the product’s quality. Based on the number of defects discovered during each round of inspection process, we can estimate the number of defects still remaining in the product. For each defect, the probability that the defect will be detected during each inspection cycle is usually assumed to be a known ‘constant’. However, in many practical situations, some defects are easily detected, while others are much more difficult to identify. In this paper, we propose a ‘beta-geometric’ inspection model in which the heterogeneity in detection probability is described by a beta distribution. In a numerical study, we show that our more realistic inspection model clearly outperforms traditional estimation methods that are based on the assumption of a constant detection probability.     

Formulation to obtain the most reliable aggregate mix with quantity and other constraints

The aggregate batch mixing problem determines the proportion (or relative masses) in which aggregate batches with different gradations are to be blended so as to achieve a target mix with a given gradation. As shown in previous studies, the gradation of a batch is not homogeneous and should be considered stochastic. Also, when batches are blended in the field there are random variations in the masses or proportions of individual batches in the mix. Assuming batch gradation and blend masses as stochastic implies that the notion of a mix (blend) satisfying the gradation of a target mix becomes stochastic. In such a framework, every mix has a reliability with which it satisfies the definition of the target mix. In addition, a mix is also required to satisfy various restrictions. This article presents an optimization formulation to determine the most reliable mix while satisfying restrictions on available quantity, budget, etc.     

Formal Specification and Quantitative Analysis of a Constellation of Navigation Satellites

Navigation satellites are a core component of navigation satellite‐based systems such as Global Positioning System, Global Navigation Satellite System and Galileo, which provide location and timing information for a variety of uses. Such satellites are designed for operating on orbit to perform tasks and have lifetimes of 10 years or more. Reliability, availability and maintainability analysis of systems has been indispensable in the design phase of satellites in order to achieve minimum failures or to increase mean time between failures and thus to plan maintenance strategies, optimise reliability and maximise availability. In this paper, we present formal models of both a single satellite and a navigation satellite constellation and logical specification of their reliability, availability and maintainability properties, respectively. The probabilistic model checker PRISM has been used to perform automated analysis of these quantitative properties. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.