基于动态朴素贝叶斯分类器的明渠水华风险评估模型

水华风险不仅是水利工程规划时需要考虑的环境问题,也是水利设施运营时不能忽视的监测项目。为了提高明渠水化风险等级预测的准确率,针对水华成因的不确定性和发展的时序性,基于动态朴素贝叶斯网络分类器提出一种应用于明渠的水华风险评估模型。模型用水华风险等级结点对应藻叶绿素a(Chla)的浓度,并考虑了9项影响水藻生长的因素。采用主成分分析法,处理专家咨询结果,进行参数的设计。在苏州河道北门桥2011年6月初至9月初观测的53例连续监测数据上,与基于朴素贝叶斯网络分类器的评估模型进行比较实验。混淆矩阵显示对中等风险情况的预测识别率提高了15.625%,单尾配对t检验表明在显著性水平0.05时,两模型预测识别率差异显著。考虑了时序特征的基于动态贝叶斯网络分类器的评估模型对明渠中等水化风险的预测识别率提高显著。     

基于Bayes特征判别的选煤建模与识别

研究了煤块的Harr小波变换和幅度投影分析,在对原始图像进行特征判别分析的基础上,建立了煤块和煤矸石的统计模型,提出了用Bayes判别函数分选煤块和煤矸石的算法,实现了用计算机视觉系统对样本进行了识别检验.并运用神经网络BP算法进行训练识别,检验其正确性,最后通过实验验证了算法有效性.     

Bayesian bivariate generalized Lindley model for survival data with a cure fraction

The cure fraction models have been widely used to analyze survival data in which a proportion of the individuals is not susceptible to the event of interest. In this article, we introduce a bivariate model for survival data with a cure fraction based on the three-parameter generalized Lindley distribution. The joint distribution of the survival times is obtained by using copula functions. We consider three types of copula function models, the Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern (FGM), Clayton and Gumbel–Barnett copulas. The model is implemented under a Bayesian framework, where the parameter estimation is based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. To illustrate the utility of the model, we consider an application to a real data set related to an invasive cervical cancer study.     

A heuristic biomarker selection approach based on professional tennis player ranking strategy

Extracting significant features from high-dimension and small sample size biological data is a challenging problem. Recently, Micha? Draminski proposed the Monte Carlo feature selection (MC) algorithm, which was able to search over large feature spaces and achieved better classification accuracies. However in MC the information of feature rank variations is not utilized and the ranks of features are not dynamically updated. Here, we propose a novel feature selection algorithm which integrates the ideas of the professional tennis players ranking, such as seed players and dynamic ranking, into Monte Carlo simulation. Seed players make the feature selection game more competitive and selective. The strategy of dynamic ranking ensures that it is always the current best players to take part in each competition. The proposed algorithm is tested on 8 biological datasets. Results demonstrate that the proposed method is computationally efficient, stable and has favorable performance in classification.     

Autonomous tactile perception: A combined improved sensing and Bayesian nonparametric approach

In recent years, autonomous robots have increasingly been deployed in unknown environments and required to manipulate or categorize unknown objects. In order to cope with these unfamiliar situations, improvements must be made both in sensing technologies and in the capability to autonomously train perception models. In this paper, we explore this problem in the context of tactile surface identification and categorization. Using a highly-discriminant tactile probe based upon large bandwidth, triple axis accelerometer that is sensitive to surface texture and material properties, we demonstrate that unsupervised learning for surface identification with this tactile probe is feasible. To this end, we derived a Bayesian nonparametric approach based on Pitman–Yor processes to model power-law distributions, an extension of our previous work using Dirichlet processes Dallaire et al. (2011). When tested against a large collection of surfaces and without providing the actual number of surfaces, the tactile probe combined with our proposed approach demonstrated near-perfect recognition in many cases and achieved perfect recognition given the right conditions. We consider that our combined improvements demonstrate the feasibility of effective autonomous tactile perception systems.     

A hybrid algorithm for Bayesian network structure learning with application to multi-label learning

We present a novel hybrid algorithm for Bayesian network structure learning, called H2PC. It first reconstructs the skeleton of a Bayesian network and then performs a Bayesian-scoring greedy hill-climbing search to orient the edges. The algorithm is based on divide-and-conquer constraint-based subroutines to learn the local structure around a target variable. We conduct two series of experimental comparisons of H2PC against Max–Min Hill-Climbing (MMHC), which is currently the most powerful state-of-the-art algorithm for Bayesian network structure learning. First, we use eight well-known Bayesian network benchmarks with various data sizes to assess the quality of the learned structure returned by the algorithms. Our extensive experiments show that H2PC outperforms MMHC in terms of goodness of fit to new data and quality of the network structure with respect to the true dependence structure of the data. Second, we investigate H2PC’s ability to solve the multi-label learning problem. We provide theoretical results to characterize and identify graphically the so-called minimal label powersets that appear as irreducible factors in the joint distribution under the faithfulness condition. The multi-label learning problem is then decomposed into a series of multi-class classification problems, where each multi-class variable encodes a label powerset. H2PC is shown to compare favorably to MMHC in terms of global classification accuracy over ten multi-label data sets covering different application domains. Overall, our experiments support the conclusions that local structural learning with H2PC in the form of local neighborhood induction is a theoretically well-motivated and empirically effective learning framework that is well suited to multi-label learning. The source code (in R) of H2PC as well as all data sets used for the empirical tests are publicly available.     

Nonlinear time series forecasting with Bayesian neural networks

The Bayesian learning provides a natural way to model the nonlinear structure as the artificial neural networks due to their capability to cope with the model complexity. In this paper, an evolutionary Monte Carlo (MC) algorithm is proposed to train the Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) for the time series forecasting. This approach called as Genetic MC is based on Gaussian approximation with recursive hyperparameter. Genetic MC integrates MC simulations with the genetic algorithms and the fuzzy membership functions. In the implementations, Genetic MC is compared with the traditional neural networks and time series techniques in terms of their forecasting performances over the weekly sales of a Finance Magazine.     

一种混合的领域概念分类体系自动构建算法

领域概念分类体系自动构建在人工智能、自然语言处理和信息检索等领域具有重要作用,但现有研究较多关注通用知识,面向特定领域的研究较少,且存在领域概念间关系抽取准确率以及自动构建算法效率较低等问题。为此,提出一种混合的领域概念分类体系自动构建算法,该算法主要包括领域概念间关系抽取模块和分类体系构建模块。领域概念间关系抽取模块设计考虑中文自身的特点,采取句法树和基于规则相结合的方法,以提高抽取领域概念间关系的查准率和查全率;分类体系构建模块设计采取改进的BRT算法,从而在降低算法复杂度的同时,提高领域分类体系构建的查准率。在通信、金融和计算机领域的实验结果均表明,与BRT算法相比,该算法的构建效果较好,查准率最高可达到89.3%。     

Implicit Bayesian Inference Using Option Prices

Abstract. A Bayesian approach to option pricing is presented in which posterior inference about the underlying returns process is conducted implicitly via observed option prices. A range of models allowing for conditional leptokurtosis, skewness and time‐varying volatility in returns are considered, with posterior parameter distributions and model probabilities backed out from the option prices. Models are ranked according to several criteria, including out‐of‐sample predictive and hedging performance. The methodology accommodates heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation in the option pricing errors, as well as regime shifts across contract groups. The method is applied to intraday option price data on the S&P500 stock index for 1995. While the results provide support for models that accommodate leptokurtosis and skewness, no one model dominates when all criteria are considered.     

基于贝叶斯网络的移动支付风险评估模型

随着信息技术和网络的迅猛发展,支付业务、技术及工具不断创新,移动支付的发展在逐渐加快。移动支付给人们生活带来方便和快捷的同时,也存在着较高的潜在风险,容易遭受非法入侵和恶意攻击。就移动支付风险的分析及风险值的计算理论方面开展工作,在贝叶斯网络的基础上,针对移动支付的主要组成主体,提出移动支付风险评估模型,通过使用该模型进行移动支付风险评估不仅可以对目前移动支付的风险进行评估,还可以根据风险评估结果引导风险控制,对比风险控制前后的风险值判断风险控制的效果,通过案例分析,提出的移动支付风险评估模型可以很好地完成移动支付的风险评估要求。