Microstructure, property and processing relation in gradient porous cathode of solid oxide fuel cells using statistical continuum mechanics

This paper investigates the relation between microstructure, macroscopic transport properties, and fabrication processing for a gradient porous cathode of solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs). Functionally graded porous cathode with smooth variations in pore size is composed of lanthanum strontium manganite (LSM) fabricated on yttria stabilized zirconia (YSZ) electrolyte substrate using a multi-step spray pyrolysis (SP) technique at various deposition conditions. Two-dimensional (2D) serial-sections of the gradient porous microstructure obtained by FIB-SEM are fully characterized using statistical correlation functions. Results of statistical analysis of the microstructures revealed that the SP processing technique is capable of generating statistically identical and homogeneous microstructures with smooth gradient in pore size resulting from changing the processing parameters. Strong contrast statistical approach is also used to predict the in-plane temperature dependent effective electrical conductivity of the gradient porous cathode and the results are compared to the experimental data.     

Estimation of wind energy potential using different probability density functions

In addition to the probability density function (pdf) derived with maximum entropy principle (MEP), several kinds of mixture probability functions have already been applied to estimate wind energy potential in scientific literature, such as the bimodal Weibull function (WW) and truncated Normal Weibull function (NW). In this paper, two other mixture functions are proposed for the first time to wind energy field, i.e. the mixture Gamma–Weibull function (GW) and mixture truncated normal function (NN). These five functions will be reviewed and compared together with conventional Weibull function. Wind speed data measured from 2006 to 2008 at three wind farms experiencing different climatic environments in Taiwan are selected as sample data to test their performance. Judgment criteria include four kinds of statistical errors, i.e. the max error in Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, root mean square error, Chi-square error and relative error of wind potential energy. The results show that all the mixture functions and the maximum entropy function describe wind characterizations better than the conventional Weibull function if wind regime presents two humps on it, irrespective of wind speed and power density. For wind speed distributions, the proposed GW pdf describes best according to the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test followed by the NW and WW pdfs, while the NN pdf performs worst. As for wind power density, the MEP and GW pdfs perform best followed by the WW and NW pdfs. The GW pdf could be a useful alternative to the conventional Weibull function in estimating wind energy potential.     

Wind characterization analysis incorporating genetic algorithm: A case study in Taiwan Strait

In this paper, the genetic algorithm (GA) is originally applied to compute the Weibull parameters for wind characterization analysis, in which an objective function required in GA for searching optimization solution has been first defined as well. Wind data analyzed are observed at a wind farm in the Taiwan Strait from 2006 to 2008. To accurately describe wind speed distribution three kinds of probability density functions are compared, i.e. the Weibull, logistic and lognormal functions. Statistical parameters including the max error in the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, root mean square error, Chi-square error and relative error of wind power density are considered as judgment criterions. The results show that GA is a useful method, there is about 33% time saving when compared with conventional iteration method. Weibull function describes best the wind distribution, regardless of time periods. Accordingly, wind power density, availability factor and electrical energy output from an ideal turbine are assessed using the Weibull parameters; utilization rate of wind energy for the currently used turbine is discussed. Further the wind energy compensates very well with solar energy; when solar radiation is down in winter and spring, the wind power becomes greater; energy ratios for each month are calculated lastly.     

重大能源工程事故定量风险评价思路与方法研究——以三高气田钻完井重大事故为例

风险评价研究以分析三高气田(高压、高产、高含硫)钻完井事故的机理及原因,建立钻完井事故的事故树概率模型及概率计算,通过基于钻完井事故后果的环境风洞物理模拟实验和三维数值模拟定量确定空间硫化氢浓度值。在此基础上进行事故的个人风险及社会风险评价,这种风险定量评价方法将对国内外同类油气田的安全开发有一定的指导意义。     

Downscaling of the flood discharge in a probabilistic framework

Many modeled and observed data are in coarse resolution, which are required to be downscaled. This study develops a probabilistic method to downscale 3-hourly runoff to hourly resolution. Hourly data recorded at the Poldokhtar Stream gauge (Karkheh River basin, Iran) during flood events (2009–2019) are divided into two groups including calibration and validation. Statistical tests including Chi-Square and Kolmogorov–Smirnov test indicate that the Burr distribution is proper distribution functions for rising and falling limbs of the floods’ hydrograph in calibration (2009–2013). A conditional ascending/descending random sampling from the constructed distributions on rising/falling limb is applied to produce hourly runoff. The hourly-downscaled runoff is rescaled based on observation to adjust mean three-hourly data. To evaluate the efficiency of the developed method, statistical measures including root mean square error, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, and correlation are used to assess the performance of the downscaling method not only in calibration but also in validation (2014–2019). Results show that the hourly downscaled runoff is in close agreement with observations in both calibration and validation periods. In addition, cumulative distribution functions of the downscaled runoff closely follow the observed ones in rising and falling limb in two periods. Although the performance of many statistical downscaling methods decreases in extreme values, the developed model performs well at different quantiles (less and more frequent values). This developed method that can properly downscale other hydroclimatological variables at any time and location is useful to provide high-resolution inputs to drive other models. Furthermore, high-resolution data are required for valid and reliable analysis, risk assessment, and management plans.     

Regional Flood Frequency Analysis in Tunisia: Identification of Regional Distributions

Best-fit distributions of floods in Tunisia are determined based on L-moment diagram and statistical tests. GEV and GLO distributions provided the best fit to seven and three regions of Tunisia respectively. In each homogeneous region, hierarchical approaches and regression models were developed for gauged and ungauged watersheds. The first two parameters of the distributions (GEV and GLO) were estimated from measured data while the third parameter was represented by the regional average value weighted by the record length of all stations in the region. The obtained parameters were correlated to the catchment size. Quantiles obtained by the proposed models were compared with those obtained using local conventional models. Statistical tests showed that the proposed models provided a much better agreement with observed floods than any of the conventional methods generally used in Tunisia.     

VSP转换波成像技术及实例分析

VSP三分量测井记录含有丰富的地震波场信息 ,除纵波外还有转换横波资料。由于横波具有不在液体或气体中传播的特点 ,因此可以联合利用横波和纵波信息进行井旁储层分析。根据PSV波的特征 ,导出了PSV波动校正公式 ,实现了PSV波水平叠加归位。通过数值计算及井旁成像剖面的实例分析 ,表明转换波的VSPCDP方法原理是可靠的 ,这就为井旁构造分析和岩性分析提供了可靠资料。从获得的塔河油田转换横波资料看 ,转换横波对三叠系和石炭系地层反映敏感 ,说明横波技术具有解决塔河油田三叠系和石炭系岩性勘探和油藏描述的潜力和优势     

应用逐步判别法建立气测解释模型

气测录井解释方法与模型多种多样,但其真正意义上的解释符合率却较低。该文介绍了一种新型的气测录井解释方法的建立过程,即根据贝叶斯准则,用逐步判别分析法建立了气测录井解释模型,模型建立过程中选用样本数334个,数据源为气测全烃及色谱组分分析数据,根据归属最大概率判别油层、气层、油水同层、水层和干层。解释模型的显著性水平为0.1,总体回判分辨率92％。     

One-minute global irradiance probability density distributions conditioned to the optical air mass

Knowledge of the temporal variability of the solar irradiance is important to study solar energy systems involving thermal and photovoltaic processes. The differences between hourly and instantaneous values of the clearness index considerably affect the utilizability of photovoltaic systems. In this work, we analyzed the probability density distributions of one-minute values of global irradiance, conditioned to the optical air mass, considering those as an approximation to the instantaneous distributions. The study reveals that the bimodality that characterizes these distributions increases with optical air mass. We propose the use of a functional form based on Boltzmann's statistics in order to describe these distributions. This function can be used for the generation of synthetic radiation data. Expressing the distribution as a sum of two functions provides an appropriate modeling of the bimodality feature that can be associated with the existence of two levels of irradiation corresponding to two extreme atmospheric situations, cloudless and cloudy conditions.     

四川盆地高磨地区龙王庙组储层岩石流体概率识别技术

四川盆地高石梯—磨溪地区下寒武统龙王庙组气藏储层的岩性与流体性质地震识别难度较大,主要原因是不同岩性、不同流体性质地层的岩石物理参数往往存在着较大的重叠空间,由此增加了识别的不确定性与多解性。为破解上述难题,采用岩石流体概率识别技术进行了尝试。该方法首先依据岩石物理参数分析结果建立各种岩性、流体性质的概率分布函数,再根据联合求解来确定储层的岩性及流体性质的概率,以此开展岩性、流体性质识别。应用结果表明:较之于一般的叠前反演方法,该方法通过多弹性参数对的联合概率求解,既提高了对储层岩性、流体性质识别的精度,又为提高储层岩性、流体性质识别的可靠程度提供了量化依据,可以为油气藏勘探开发井位部署决策等提供更充足的量化参考指标和依据。