Uncertainty Matters: Computer Models at the Science–Policy Interface

The use of computer models offers a general and flexible framework that can help to deal with some of the complexities and difficulties associated with the development of water management plans as prescribed by the Water Framework Directive. However, despite the advantages modelling presents, the integration of information derived from models into policy is far away from being trivial or the norm. Part of the difficulties of this integration is rooted in the lack of confidence policy makers have on the incorporation of modelling information into policy formulation. In this paper we examine the reasons for this apparent lack of confidence and explore how some tools, presently in use, address this problem. We conclude that public confidence in models is highly dependent on the way uncertainties are addressed and suggest possible directions of action to improve the current situation. Four real case studies illustrate how computer models have been used in The Netherlands for carrying out management plans at regional and national scale. We suggest that the solution to integrate modelling information into policy formulation lies on both the modelling and the policy-making communities.     

Ultrasonic nondestructive evaluation of fibre-reinforced composite materials — a review

A framework is presented for examining the effectiveness of limiting and modelling arguments used in the analysis of fluid flows. It consists of examining the consequences of the arguments on the flow problem as a whole and breaking down the limiting/modelling process into a sequence of steps and associated sequence of flow problems, termed here as ‘lidels’. The notion of validity of lidels is given. Several examples are given to explain the present approach. Invited general lecture at 3rd ACFM, Tokyo, September 1986     

多工况多级离心压缩机总体优化命题的建模与数值方法

介绍了多工况 点的压缩机最优模拟设计点的特点及相应的优化建模，包括目标函数的建立、约束条件的确立和计算方法，使满足该模拟设计点要求的压缩机在逼近优目标函数最大值的同时，兼顾各真实工况运行点都在较好效率下工作，并列出了基于模型级数据库的优化设计实例。     

Mathematical modelling of a reverse flow reactor with catalytic surface dynamics

This paper studies a system of partial differential equations modelling the behaviour of a reverse flow reactor. For the parameters appropriate for the oxidation of ammonia on a Pt/Al₂O₃ catalyst in a typical laboratory set-up, the reactor may be split into regions where approximate formulas that determine its behaviour are deduced. Numerical calculations are presented and can be used to compare with the analytical formulas. The physical insight gained from the asymptotic analysis suggests a new switching strategy which is the subject of numerical experiments. The switching strategy is found to be efficient at minimising the ammonia exiting the reactor after reversal.     

Semantic Transparency,Brain Monitoring and Evaluation of Hybrid Cognitive Architectures

In constructing hybrid systems, there is a need for a principled basis to determine the relative roles or functions of artificial neural network and symbolic approaches. The primary objective of the work to be reported is the construction of a conceptual and methodological framework that permits an iterative sequence in which a hybrid model predicts the basis of cognitive performance and an objective analysis of performance provides empirical data, evaluating (and thus constraining) the structure and processes of the model. In seeking a linkage between a hybrid model of cognition and human performance the concept of “semantic transparency” has been adopted, since it can be used in analyzing and describing both the chracteristics of a model of cognition and the processes underlying human performance. An overview of a specific, ”strong” hybrid architecture is presented. The characteristics of the virtual machines which compose it and the nature of their interaction are illustrated. An approach to the questions of evaluation is described based on empirical data obtained by brain monitoring of subjects during cognitive performance.     

Finite element micromechanical modelling of unidirectional fibre-reinforced metal-matrix composites

Typical finite element formulations and models for unidirectional composite materials are reviewed. The application of micromechanical finite element analysis to the modelling of unidirectional fibre-reinforced metal-matrix composites is demonstrated by presenting some studies from recent publications. It is shown that while analytical models offer a simple tool for obtaining the overall response of composites, finite element analysis provides more accurate and detailed characterisation of composite properties for complicated geometries and constituent property variations. Various effects that influence the stress/strain response and fibre/matrix deformation of composites are studied through modelling. These effects include the fibre coating and reaction layer, fibre shape and distribution, metallurgical and environmental factors, stress distributions and damage. It is demonstrated that the properties and constituent phase interaction of metal-matrix composites are best modelled by finite element analysis. It is emphasized that in order to obtain good predictions, the models must be coupled with first-hand characterisations of the constituent phases and their interactions, including the thermal history of the specimens.     

用VBA编程生成螺纹三维实体模型

阐述了在AutoCAD中用VBA编写的，造型螺纹三维实体模型的程序的理论依据和算法。介绍了该程序的使用方法，列出了程序框图和重要部分的程序清单。     

Investigation of Scale Formation in Heat Exchangers of Phosphoric Acid Evaporator Plants

The primary problem in concentrating phosphoric acid is due to fouling on the tube‐side of the heat exchangers of the evaporator units. Scaling on the heat transfer surfaces occurs because of high supersaturation of phosphoric acid liquor with respect to calcium sulphate. A review of the existing literature reveals that no information is available on heat transfer and on crystallization fouling of industrial phosphoric acid solutions. In this investigation, the solubility of different calcium sulphate types in phosphoric acid solution was studied and its dependency on acid concentration and temperature was investigated. A large number of fouling experiments were carried out in a side‐stream of a phosphoric acid plant at different flow velocities, surface temperatures and concentrations to determine the mechanisms, which control the deposition process. After identifying the effects of operational parameters on the deposition process, a model was developed for prediction of fouling resistances. The reaction of calcium sulphate crystallization followed a second order rate with respect to the supersaturation. The activation energy evaluated for the surface reaction of the deposit formation was found to be 57 kJ/mol. The predicted fouling resistances were compared with the experimental data. Quantitative and qualitative agreement between measured and predicted fouling rates is good.     

Biosorption of Phenol onto Posidonia oceanica (L.) Seagrass in Batch System: Equilibrium and Kinetic Modelling

In this research, the biosorption of phenol using the fibres of a Mediterranean seagrass Posidonia oceanica (L.) was studied. Batch experimental procedures were made to investigate the ability of this novel marine biomass to remove phenol from aqueous phase. The influences of pH and contact time at different initial concentrations were evaluated. The results showed that biosorption capacity was enhanced using solution pH equal to 5.2. The modelling results showed that pseudo‐second‐order and Redlich‐Peterson models were found to be the most suitable to satisfactory describe the kinetic and equilibrium adsorption data, respectively.