一种带隔离机制的SIS模型研究

以往的病毒传播模型很少考虑隔离时间对病毒传播结果的影响,根据实际情况提出一个与时间有关的带隔离机制的病毒传播模型,并在BA无标度网络上对其进行模拟,分析试验结果,解释时间机制对病毒传播的影响。     

复杂网络中初始节点对传染病传播的影响分析

长期以来,传染病对人类造成持续不断的威胁。研究工作者在传染病传播上投入了大量的精力进行研究,比如:传播模型、传播阂值以及影响传播的因素等方面。主要研究复杂网络中初始染病节点如何影响传染病的传播,对5种初始染病节点选择方法进行了深入分析并在两个大规模无向网络上进行了仿真实验。结果表明,传播速度以及传染病影响规模不仅与初始染病节点的选择有关,而且与网络结构有关。本研究成果对传染病控制可提供有价值的借鉴与参考作用。     

Switched NMPC for epidemiological and social-economic control objectives in SIR-type systems

Several optimal control strategies have recently been developed to minimize the infected peak prevalence or the epidemic final size. Although these two indexes are critical to assess any control policy tending to mitigate an epidemic by means of non-pharmaceutical measures, they are usually considered separately and, in general, no consensus has been reached about how to simultaneously handle them in a simple and realistic way (i.e., accounting for the limitations in the control actions, avoiding new cycles of infections or reboundings, considering side effects, etc.) Here, based on a theoretical dynamical analysis of SIR-type models, a realistic nonlinear model predictive control strategy is proposed. Apart from minimizing the epidemic final size and keeping the infected peak prevalence under an established value, the controller accounts for feedback uncertainty and different actuator constraints, such as a limited number of social distancing policies, which may remain active for a minimal and a maximal time interval. Several simulations considering different SIR-type models illustrate the benefits of the proposal.