环境因素对PBO纤维老化的影响和储存寿命预测

研究了紫外光、湿度和温度等环境条件对聚对亚苯基苯并二噁唑(PBO)纤维老化的影响,并对PBO纤维在常规环境下的储存和使用寿命预测进行了初步分析。结果表明:在PBO纤维的老化过程中,紫外光照射造成纤维表皮的强烈破坏,使其强度大幅降低;水分子向纤维内部渗透,使其加速老化和强度降低;温度的升高促进水分子向纤维内部渗透和活动。在避光和避水条件下,PBO纤维具有相当高的耐热氧老化性能。     

Interior failure mechanism and life prediction of surface‐treated 17Cr‐Ni steel under high and very high cycle fatigue

The understanding of very high cycle fatigue (VHCF) mechanisms is critical to the development of life prediction approach. For this purpose, high cycle fatigue (HCF) and VHCF properties of a surface‐treated 17Cr‐Ni steel were investigated under axial loading with stress ratio of 0. This steel exhibits the constantly decreasing S‐N characteristics associated with the inclusion‐fisheye induced failure under the HCF and the inclusion‐FGA (fine granular area)‐fisheye induced failure under the VHCF. The cyclic pressing plays an important role in the FGA formation process, but the FGA still can be observed for the stress ratio of zero due to the slight crack closure effect. Two life modelling approaches associated with related failure mechanisms in the HCF and VHCF regimes are proposed based on the agreement between experimental and predicted results.     

基于Elman网络的黄河源区枯期径流预报

采用反馈Elman网络,对黄河唐乃亥水文站及上游玛曲站近45年(1959～2003年)年降雨及径流流量进行分析,建立了基于反馈神经网络的黄河源区枯季径流预报模型.利用Matlab7 神经网络工具箱对黄河源区唐乃亥水文站枯季径流量进行了预报.结果表明所建立的ANN(7,7,15,7)模型预报结果精度高,容错能力强,是枯季径流预报的有效手段.     

基于突变理论的滑坡时间预测模型

考虑滑而介质的流变特性结合滑坡监测资料,运用尖点突变模型中状态变量的突变来反映滑体的突滑,建它了一个滑坡时间预测模型.基于突变理论,分析了单滑面滑坡的失稳机制,分析结果表明:滑体突滑失稳的必要条件仅取决于滑动面剪切段介质和蠕滑段介质的刚度比.根据尖点突变理论的分叉集方程,得到了滑坡突变时间的计算公式,为滑坡预报提供了初...     

基于改进果蝇算法与最小二乘支持向量机的轧制力预测算法研究

铝合金板材精轧过程中,轧制力是影响板材质量的重要因素。为了满足轧制现场的轧制力预报精度要求,采用改进果蝇算法(FOA)与最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM)相结合进行轧制力预测。改进了果蝇算法的味道浓度判定函数和步长设定方法,采用了分组并行搜索的策略,进而提出一种基于改进FOA-LSSVM的轧制力智能预报方法。将该方法用于铝热连轧现场数据的仿真实验,结果表明样本预测误差在10%以内,其中84%的样本误差在5%以内,精度优于传统模型。     

动力学模型预测三文鱼在不同温度的货架期

目的设计5组不同温度的贮藏实验,探究三文鱼在不同贮藏温度下品质与货架期间的关系。方法分析三文鱼感官品质、色差(L值、a值)、p H值、菌落总数(TVC)、K值、挥发性盐基氮(TVB-N)以及硫代巴比妥酸值(TBA)等指标在贮藏期间的变化,建立菌落总数、K值、TVB-N、TBA品质指标对应关于时间和温度的一级动力学模型。结果得到的货架期模型活化能和指前因子分别为77.22,57.39,62.07,56.41 k J/mol;2.72×10~(13),1.06×10~(10),6.63×10~(10),1.09×10~(10)。选用10℃指标作为验证性实验,预测值和实际值的相对误差均在5%以内。结论表明该实验得出的货架期方程能够较为准确地预测贮藏温度为0~20℃的三文鱼货架期。     

A Prediction Region‐based Approach to Model Uncertainty for Multi‐response Optimization

Multi‐response optimization methods rely on empirical process models based on the estimates of model parameters that relate response variables to a set of design variables. However, in determining the optimal conditions for the design variables, model uncertainty is typically neglected, resulting in an unstable optimal solution. This paper proposes a new optimization strategy that takes model uncertainty into account via the prediction region for multiple responses. To avoid obtaining an overly conservative design, the location and dispersion performances are constructed based on the best‐case strategy and the worst‐case strategy of expected loss. We reveal that the traditional loss function and the minimax/maximin strategy are both special cases of the proposed approach. An example is illustrated to present the procedure and the effectiveness of the proposed loss function. The results show that the proposed approach can give reasonable results when both the location and dispersion performances are important issues. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于相似日的节假日燃气短期负荷预测

分析了燃气负荷的形状相似、趋势相似和特征相似,根据节假日燃气负荷的特点,提出基于相似日的节假日负荷预测方法。以前趋势相似性和日特征相似性为原则,在燃气负荷历史数据库中选择若干相似日,以相似日作为样本采用神经网络方法进行预测。实例证明该方法具有良好的预测精度。     

Forecasting with unequally spaced data by a functional principal component approach

The Principal Component Regression model of multiple responses is extended to forccast a continuous-time stochastic process. Orthogonal projection on a subspace of trigonometric functions is applied in order to estimate the principal components using discrete-time observations from a sample of regular curves. The forecasts provided by this approach are compared with classical principal component regression on simulated data.     

统计能量分析预测飞机壁板隔声量及舱室内声场分布

飞机舱室内噪声的预测对改进飞机性能具有重要意义，并为实际飞机设计和噪声控制措施提供理论依据。文章建立了飞机壁板隔声的统计能量分析模型，研究了外部声场激励和振动激励通过飞机壁板的隔声量，预测了飞机舱室内的声场分布。在此基础上运用面向对象及可视化技术，开发出相应的专用软件，该软件界面友好，用户可根据需要选定结构参数，材料性能，更改外部激励，并对预测结果进行可视化处理。运用该软件对舱内噪声进行预测，可以缩短飞机设计周期，减小对已有结构进行噪声控制的困难，提高经济效益。文中通过对某型飞机的舱室内噪声进行预测，验证了统计能量法预测飞机壁板隔声量的可靠性和该软件的实用性。