基于行为经济的预期回报与创业决策关联分析

预期回报对决策具有决定性的影响。基于行为经济模型,认为创业决策依赖于预期回报和欲望水平之间的相互作用,并通过计量分析验证了预期回报对创业决策的影响。     

An expert decision support system for network routing: a case study

The paper presents a case study of the development of an expert decision support system which uses simple heuristic methods for fast determination of routes for simultaneous signals in a transmission network of limited capacity. It illustrates how heuristic solutions can be embodied in a model-based DSS and how the standard decision support literature, although intuitively appealing, provides little practical assistance in system construction or classification     

现场地质预测与决策技术

油气的生成、运移、分布、成藏、保存具有规律性，技术人员可以依据其规律性对地下地质情况进行推理、预测和决策。钻井过程的现场地质预测技术方法主要是外推法、因果法和直观法三大类。外推法是常用的预测方法，包含了岩性、沉积旋回、标志层、标准层、重矿物等岩石地层学对比方法和生物地层学方法及地球物理方法。现场地质预测与决策是通过确定预测目标、收集相关资料、进行对比分析、形成地质预测结果、拟定地质决策方案、方案优选、方案实施等环节来完成。该技术是现场地质监督的核心技术，在实践中取得显著成效。     

Using the analytic network process (ANP) in a SWOT analysis - A case study for a textile firm

Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis does not provide an analytical means to determine the importance of the identified factors or the ability to assess decision alternatives according to these factors. Although the analysis successfully pinpoints the factors, individual factors are usually described briefly and very generally. For this reason, SWOT analysis possesses deficiencies in the measurement and evaluation steps. Although the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) technique removes these deficiencies, it does not allow for measurement of the possible dependencies among the factors. The AHP method assumes that the factors presented in the hierarchical structure are independent; however, this assumption may be inappropriate in light of certain internal and external environmental effects. Therefore, it is necessary to employ a form of SWOT analysis that measures and takes into account the possible dependency among the factors. This paper demonstrates a process for quantitative SWOT analysis that can be performed even when there is dependence among strategic factors. The proposed algorithm uses the analytic network process (ANP), which allows measurement of the dependency among the strategic factors, as well as AHP, which is based on the independence between the factors. Dependency among the SWOT factors is observed to effect the strategic and sub-factor weights, as well as to change the strategy priorities.     

A priori ordering protocols to support consensus-building in multiple stakeholder contexts

In a complex social, political, economic, technological, and/or environmental context, corporate, military, government, and other organizations are often faced with collective decision-making situations. The rationale for group decision exercises is that the judgment of many will usually prove superior to the judgment of one. However, it has been shown that collective decision exercises are often highly dependent on matters of perspective, values and opinion, all of which - being essentially subjective in nature - are beyond the reach of existing formal decision technology. Furthermore, it can be expected that many collective decision exercises - particularly those of strategic import - will not lend themselves to the quantitative analysis instruments that have long dominated the management and decision science repertoire. This does not, however, mean that they must remain entirely and forever outside the bounds of scientific rationality. The ordering protocols which are currently available do not have enough technical mechanics to be relied upon to bring us to any satisfying resolution of a priori disputation. Hence, we propose an a priori ordering reference model that might support consensus-building in a multiple stakeholders context. In order to detect whether the subjective arguments are products of proper reasons or merely instances of raw rhetoric and to suggest how any logical or syntactical flaws might best be repaired, we propose logical ordering facilities and protocols for integrating procedural and instrumental provisions for a group-decision process with two lines of technical innovation: the superimpositional ordering function and the logical ordering support facilities.     

An actor-critic algorithm for constrained Markov decision processes

An actor-critic type reinforcement learning algorithm is proposed and analyzed for constrained controlled Markov decision processes. The analysis uses multiscale stochastic approximation theory and the envelope theorem' of mathematical economics.     

基于虚拟样机的智能诊断系统知识组织与表达

基于虚拟样机的智能诊断系统由协同支撑平台、模型库、样机引擎和虚拟环境组成.按系统-分系统-部件的次序进行故障诊断.诊断知识分为结构、故障处理、故障机理等10类.故障知识分经验、因果和定律三种类型.其知识表示把抢修对象的原理、维护、故障机理和维修等知识,以集合框架形式分类封装于诊断辅助系统知识库.试验证明该系统能准确表达诊断知识.     

A method for the efficient prioritization of infrastructure renewal projects

The infrastructure renewal program at MIT consists of a large number of projects with an estimated budget that could approach $1 billion. Infrastructure renewal at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) is the process of evaluating and investing in the maintenance of facility systems and basic structure to preserve existing campus buildings. The selection and prioritization of projects must be addressed with a systematic method for the optimal allocation of funds and other resources. This paper presents a case study of a prioritization method utilizing multi-attribute utility theory. This method was developed at MIT's Department of Nuclear Engineering and was deployed by the Department of Facilities after appropriate modifications were implemented to address the idiosyncrasies of infrastructure renewal projects and the competing criteria and constraints that influence the judgment of the decision-makers. Such criteria include minimization of risk, optimization of economic impact, and coordination with academic policies, programs, and operations of the Institute. A brief overview of the method is presented, as well as the results of its application to the prioritization of infrastructure renewal projects. Results of workshops held at MIT with the participation of stakeholders demonstrate the feasibility of the prioritization method and the usefulness of this approach.     

一种基于时间分层决策矩阵的综合评价算法

综合评价系统用四元总体（A，Z，X^(k)，D）表示，其中决策矩阵X^(k)是具有对象维i,指标维j,时间维k的三维矩阵，将三维矩阵X（k)按时间划分形成m个二维矩阵，每个二维矩阵分别代表每个年度n个评价对象对应于p个指标的属性集，讨论了按时间分层决策矩阵的多指标综合评价问题，描述了按时间分层的决策矩阵的求解算法，并采用Visual Foxpro数据库语言编程实现。     

Adaptive flexibility and maladaptive routines in selecting fast and frugal decision strategies.

Decision routines unburden the cognitive capacity of the decision maker. In changing environments, however, routines may become maladaptive. In 2 experiments with a hypothetical stock market game (n = 241), the authors tested whether decision routines tend to persist at the level of decision strategies rather than at the level of options in strategy selection. The payoff structure of the task was changed after 80 decision trials, rendering a new strategy optimal with respect to expected payoff. Whereas most participants detected the appropriate strategy at the beginning of the task, they tended to retain it even when it was no longer optimal. A hint about a possible change had only a small influence on this maladaptive routine; a monetary incentive had none. Switching to a similar but not identical task relaxed the routine, but not much. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)