基于多级可拓的工程项目群管理协同效果评价

为了科学合理地评估项目群管理协同综合水平，建立包含信息协同、组织协同、资源协同、目标协同和文化协同等5 个维度的项目群协同度评价指标体系，并在物元可拓理论的基础上构建了管理协同效果评价模型。在区间层次分析法确定各指标综合权重的前提下，运用多级可拓法对协同效果进行综合评价，进而确定项目各指标因素协同水平，为企业提高工程项目群管理协同能力和管理效率提供参考。将该评价模型应用到某高速公路项目群建设评价中，从而验证其科学性与合理性。     

Belief rule-based dependence assessment method under interval uncertainty

Human reliability analysis (HRA) is of great significance for probabilistic risk assessment, and the technique for human error rate prediction (THERP) has been widely applied to assess the dependence among HRA. However, uncertainties in analyst's judgment and experts' knowledge, especially interval uncertainty in analyst's judgment, have been ignored by existing methods. To this end, the belief rule-based system is employed to model uncertainties in experts' knowledge in this paper, and the interval belief distribution is used to model interval uncertainty in analyst's judgment. Then, a new belief rule-based dependence assessment method is proposed, and two case studies are used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method could not only model uncertainty using belief rules and interval belief distributions, but also provide a novel and effective way for human reliability analysis.     

A description of interestrus and interservice intervals and associated fertility in 16 United Kingdom dairy herds

Understanding the changes that have occurred in reproductive management and physiology of the dairy cow is necessary to reverse the trend of declining fertility. In this study we analyzed the intervals between estrus events, as detected using tail chalk, in a population of 6,092 dairy cows from 16 herds in the central United Kingdom. Intervals were categorized by absence or presence of an insemination at the first estrus event, being designated interestrus intervals and interservice intervals, respectively. Modal interestrus interval was 21 d, as has been commonly described. Interservice interval was significantly longer than interestrus interval, with a modal value of 22 d. Multivariable analysis identified explanatory variables for intervals between estrus events, with random effects modeling accounting for clustering within herds and within individual cows. Intraclass correlation coefficients indicated that herd identity has a negligible effect, whereas animal identity accounts for 9% of interval variation. Parity, days in milk, insemination at the first estrus of the interval, and interval number within lactation all affected the interval. Logistic regression modeling indicated that interval length is also associated with the outcome of pregnancy. These findings indicate that intervals following an insemination are both longer than previously described and longer than interestrus intervals with no insemination event. The data also suggest that longer interservice interval length may be more conducive to subsequent conception than shorter intervals. Several factors appear to influence interestrus events and further work is required to investigate the underlying physiological mechanisms of these phenomena.     

吉林油田水平井射孔段长度确定

由动态数据统计方法及水平井井温测试解释得出的结论,分析总结了吉林油田2006年扶余地区23口水平井长、短射孔段改造的优劣弊端;经新木等地区8口井20段的短射孔段现场压裂改造试验,得出了一些规律性认识。提出对今后低渗透油田压裂改造的水平井,在保证最佳射孔方式及射孔有效率的前提下,射孔段尽量采取短射为好,既能确保水平段储层的有效改造,又节约了不必要的资金投入。     

塔中地区速度场建立及变速成图

对塔里木盆地塔中地区构造成图采用了有别于常规方法的时深转换。其主要流程是：①首先利用叠加、偏移速度精确建立三维速度场，将偏移时间域t0图转换到零偏移距时间域内；②利用叠加速度由浅至深逐层进行反演，分别反演出沿该反射层的层速度，计算并绘制出层速度平面图；③最终得到三维速度模型和零偏移距时间模型，并利用2种数据模型作时深转换。将该方法应用于塔中地区低幅度构造、岩性圈闭精细描述和研究，提高了构造成图的精度。     

石棉辊筒的离心铸造及温度控制

本文通过实例介绍了几年来我们生产石棉辊筒的经验,阐述了一些具体技术参数的控制,并根据几件生产实例计算了其内外层结合的温度,最后探讨了几个关键性问题。     

峒室爆破微差设计原则及时间间隔选取研究

本文分析了峒室微差爆破的机理以及选用微差时间间隔的原则。对国内外近十个微差时间间隔选取的经验公式和十几个获得较好爆破效果的微差爆破工程实践所使用的时间间隔进行了数据回归分析，研究表明时间间隔选取主要应根据土岩性质，而不能机械地采用某一经验公式确定。     

A program to measure time intervals between R wave peaks in real-time mode

Assuming a sampling rate of electrocardiograms of 200/s, the time interval between two successive analog-to-digital conversions is 5 ms. We present a program which recognizes R wave peaks of electrocardiograms and measures R-R time intervals within this critical period. The program is written in assembly language and run on a PDP-12. The cycle time is 1.6 μs and most instructions require one to three cycles for execution in the computer used. Since the whole sequence of this program is executable in about 160 μs, electrocardiograms recorded on a data recorder can be analysed 31 times faster than recording speed. For application of this routine, we present a program for displaying an R-R interval histogram and a joint interval histogram.     

利用不等时距灰色理论预测地基沉降

本文应用不等时距灰色理论，建立了地基沉降预测GM（1，1）模型，并结合实例对模型进行了验证。