基于BP神经网络的我国铁矿资源需求情景分析

在介绍世界铁矿资源概况以及我国铁矿资源供需现状的基础上,对影响我国铁矿资源需求的主要因素进行了深入分析,然后利用BP神经网络建立了铁矿资源需求情景分析模型,并利用2001-2011年相关数据进行了测算,得出2013-2025年我国铁矿资源需求情景。研究结果表明：未来我国铁矿资源进口依存度将达到25%~35%,虽然有所降低,但仍然比较高。     

Gradual-increase extraction of target baskets as preprocess for visualizing simplified scenario maps by KeyGraph

KeyGraph is one of the powerful methods to support mining some knowledge from huge dataset because of its visualization mechanism. It presents the dataset in network diagram with representative events and their relationships. The data analyst reads its relationships, and supposes scenarios from them. This is conceptually very simple process, but it becomes more difficult when the diagram becomes complex. In this paper, to overcome this difficulty, we develop the pre-process to generate simple network KeyGraph and the scenario supposing process which repeats our pre-process, generation of KeyGraph and supposing scenarios.     

Robust discrimination between uncertain management alternatives by iterative reflection on crossover point scenarios: Principles,design and implementations

When comparing environmental management alternatives, there is a need to assess the effect of uncertainty in the underlying model(s) and future conditions on robustness of recommendations. At times, it may be difficult or undesirable to specify the uncertainty in inputs and parameters a priori. An alternative approach instead generates crossover points, describing scenarios where the preferred alternative will change (i.e. alternatives are of equal value), and prompts the analyst to assess their plausibility a posteriori. This paper extends previous work by introducing principles, design and implementation of a new method to analyse crossover points. It reduces the complexity of dealing with many variables by identifying single crossover points of greatest concern, and progressively building understanding through three stages of analysis. We present three implementations using R, Excel and a web interface. They use two examples involving cost-benefit analysis of managed aquifer recharge and the water footprint impact of changing diets.     

Comparing Robust Decision-Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for model-based decision support under deep uncertainty

A variety of model-based approaches for supporting decision-making under deep uncertainty have been suggested, but they are rarely compared and contrasted. In this paper, we compare Robust Decision-Making with Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways. We apply both to a hypothetical case inspired by a river reach in the Rhine Delta of the Netherlands, and compare them with respect to the required tooling, the resulting decision relevant insights, and the resulting plans. The results indicate that the two approaches are complementary. Robust Decision-Making offers insights into conditions under which problems occur, and makes trade-offs transparent. The Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways approach emphasizes dynamic adaptation over time, and thus offers a natural way for handling the vulnerabilities identified through Robust Decision-Making. The application also makes clear that the analytical process of Robust Decision-Making is path-dependent and open ended: an analyst has to make many choices, for which Robust Decision-Making offers no direct guidance.     

太阳风暴剧情生成系统的研究

剧情是太阳风暴应急演练的驱动,控制演练的过程和发展.针对传统演练中手动设置剧情、演练剧情已知,且不能反映太阳风暴动态演化过程等问题,利用二叉树重构法建立太阳风暴剧情推理引擎,根据不同演练需求智能化地生成太阳风暴剧情方案;基于历史事件库,利用分段线性插值等方法,真实表现了难以用物理模型描述的太阳风暴动态演化过程;基于以上两项关键技术,实现了太阳风暴剧情生成系统.实验结果表明,系统生成的太阳风暴剧情,贴近实战,针对性强,可有效提升演练中各部门对突发事件的快速反应和应急处置能力.     

Energy sovereignty in Italian inner areas: Off-grid renewable solutions for isolated systems and rural buildings

This paper deals with a compact system developed to assure energy independence to buildings located in inner rural areas: the Off-Grid Box. This system features a combination of techniques that assure the use of several renewable energy sources, their storage and the rationalization of consumption.This research studies the base model of the Off-Grid Box, which entails the presence of photovoltaic panels as the energy capture system.The aim of this research is to evaluate the opportunity of realizing a system to ensure energy autonomy of rural residential buildings. To achieve energy independence, for an isolated dwelling, this paper assesses the optimal storage systems that may be combined with a photovoltaic system. To this end, an Off-Grid Box has been installed in a residential unit in central Italy. Starting from the real case, two alternative energy storage scenarios were constructed. The results can be applied to a variety of geographical settings and prove the feasibility and strategic importance of total off-grid systems for individual residential units, when they are designed in integrated terms in the area to implement small-scale-smart-grids. In rural areas, these grids should also cater for small farming businesses that feature a different consumption distribution compared to dwellings.     

Generating scenarios for simulation and optimization of container terminal logistics

This paper introduces an approach for generating scenarios of sea port container terminals. The scenarios can be used as input data for simulation models. Furthermore, they can be employed as test data for algorithms to solve optimization problems in container terminal logistics such as berth planning and crane scheduling. A scenario consists of arrivals of deep sea vessels, feeder ships, trains, and trucks together with lists of containers to be loaded and unloaded. Moreover, container attributes such as size, empty, reefer, weight, and destination are included. The generator is based on a large number of parameters that allow the user to produce realistic scenarios of any size. The purpose of this paper is to outline the parameters that are important to produce realistic scenarios of high practical relevance and to propose an algorithm that computes scenarios on the basis of these parameters. The generator discussed here has been developed within the simulation project at the HHLA Container-Terminal Altenwerder in Hamburg, Germany. Nevertheless, its structure is general enough to be applied to any other terminal as well.This research project has been carried out for the HHLA Container-Terminal Altenwerder in Hamburg, Germany, when the author was with LOGAS Gesellschaft für logistische Anwendungssysteme, Hamburg, Germany.