洪水预报智能模型在中国半干旱半湿润区的应用对比

为探究不同洪水预报智能模型在我国半干旱半湿润区的应用效果,选用决策树、多层感知器、随机森林和支持向量机4种模型在陕西省3个典型流域进行逐时洪水预报;选择相关系数、纳什效率系数、均方根误差、平均绝对误差和相对误差等评价指标,比较不同预见期下4种模型在半干旱半湿润典型流域洪水预报的适用性。结果表明:在短预见期预报中,4种模型在半湿润区典型流域均可获得较高的预报结果,在半干旱典型流域模拟精度相对偏低,仅支持向量机模型满足预报要求;随着预见期延长,不同模型性能变化差异大,支持向量机模型整体稳定,在小流域实时洪水预报中具有明显优势;随机森林模型与决策树模型精度随预见期延长而缓慢下降,前者适应性更好;多层感知器模型精度随预见期延长而骤减,模型稳定性较差。     

Semi-automated user agents in distributed change management

Flexible integration of distributed design and manufacturing activities is one of the key issues in applying just-in-time principles along the logistics chain. The potential of AI based approaches in this field is clear, but the inherent asynchrony, concurrency, and inconsistency of distributed operations has reduced enthusiasm so far.This paper discusses coordination in the context of geographically distributed manufacturing of one-of-a-kind products. Cooperation of partners is based on semi-automated user agents which operate as an integrative layer between more dedicated tools and systems. The management of order changes in elevator manufacture is used as a case example.The work reported here is part of the DIMUN project (DIMUN, 1989) in the RACE program.     

What can the history of AI learn from the history of science?

There have been few attempts, so far, to document the history of artificial intelligence. It is argued that the historical sociology of scientific knowledge can provide a broad historiographical approach for the history of AI, particularly as it has proved fruitful within the history of science in recent years. The article shows how the sociology of knowledge can inform and enrich four types of project within the history of AI; organizational history; AI viewed as technology; AI viewed as cognitive science and historical biography. In the latter area the historical treatments of Darwin and Turing are compared to warn against the pitfalls of rational reconstructions of the past.     

Active symbols and internal models: Towards a cognitive connectionism

In the first section of the article, we examine some recent criticisms of the connectionist enterprise: first, that connectionist models are fundamentally behaviorist in nature (and, therefore, non-cognitive), and second that connectionist models are fundamentally associationist in nature (and, therefore, cognitively weak). We argue that, for a limited class of connectionist models (feed-forward, pattern-associator models), the first criticism is unavoidable. With respect to the second criticism, we propose that connectionist modelsare fundamentally associationist but that this is appropriate for building models of human cognition. However, we do accept the point that there are cognitive capacities for which any purely associative model cannot provide a satisfactory account. The implication that we draw from is this is not that associationist models and mechanisms should be scrapped, but rather that they should be enhanced.In the next section of the article, we identify a set of connectionist approaches which are characterized by active symbols — recurrent circuits which are the basis of knowledge representation. We claim that such approaches avoid criticisms of behaviorism and are, in principle, capable of supporting full cognition. In the final section of the article, we speculate at some length about what we believe would be the characteristics of a fully realized active symbol system. This includes both potential problems and possible solutions (for example, mechanisms needed to control activity in a complex recurrent network) as well as the promise of such systems (in particular, the emergence of knowledge structures which would constitute genuine internal models).     

Toward in-situ flaw detection in laser powder bed fusion additive manufacturing through layerwise imagery and machine learning

Process monitoring in additive manufacturing may allow components to be certified cheaply and rapidly and opens the possibility of healing defects, if detected. Here, neural networks (NNs) and convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are trained to detect flaws in layerwise images of a build, using labeled XCT data as a ground truth. Multiple images were recorded after each layer before and after recoating with various lighting conditions. Classifying networks were given a single image or multiple images of various lighting conditions for training and testing. CNNs demonstrated significantly better performance than NNs across all tasks. Furthermore, CNNs demonstrated improved generalizability, i.e., the ability to generalize to more diverse data than either the training or validation data sets. Specifically, CNNs trained on high-resolution layerwise images from one build showed minimal loss in performance when applied to data from an independent build, whereas the performance of the NNs degraded significantly. CNN accuracy was also demonstrated to be a function of flaw size, suggesting that smaller flaws may be produced by mechanisms that do not alter the surface morphology of the build plate. CNNs demonstrated accuracies of 93.5 % on large (>200 μm) flaws when testing and training on components from the same build and accuracies of 87.3 % when testing on a previously unseen build. Finally, evidence linking the formation of large lack-of-fusion defects to the presence of process ejecta is presented.     

Artificial intelligence capability: Conceptualization,measurement calibration,and empirical study on its impact on organizational creativity and firm performance

Artificial intelligence (AI) has been heralded by many as the next source of business value. Grounded on the resource-based theory of the firm and on recent work on AI at the organizational context, this study (1) identifies the AI-specific resources that jointly create an AI capability and provides a definition, (2) develops an instrument to capture the AI capability of the firms, and (3) examines the relationship between an AI capability and organizational creativity and performance. Findings empirically support the suggested theoretical framework and corresponding instrument and provide evidence that an AI capability results in increased organizational creativity and performance.     

Taking advantage of collective knowledge in emergency response systems

When large groups work on a theme, they have the potential to produce a lot of useful knowledge, regardless of whether they are acting in a coordinated manner or individually. Spontaneously generated information has received much attention in recent years, as organizations and businesses discover the power of crowds. New technologies, such as blogs, Twitter, wikis, photo sharing, collaborative tagging and social networking sites, enable the creation and dissemination of content in a relatively simple way. As a result, the aggregate body of knowledge is growing at an accelerated rate. Many organizations are looking for ways to harness this power, which is being called collective intelligence. Research has shown that it is possible to obtain high quality results from collectively produced work.In this paper, we consider the domain of emergency response. Research has shown that individuals respond quickly and massively to emergencies, and that they try to help with the situation. Thus, it seems like a logical step to attempt to harness collective knowledge for emergency management. Disaster relief groups and field command frequently suffer from lack of up to date information, which may be critical in a rapidly evolving situation. Some of this information could be generated by the crowd at large, enabling more effective response to the situation. In this paper, we discuss the possibilities for the introduction of collective knowledge in disaster relief and present architecture and examples of how this could be accomplished.     

Distributed constraint optimization with MULBS: A case study on collaborative meeting scheduling

This paper introduces MULBS, a new DCOP (distributed constraint optimization problem) algorithm and also presents a DCOP formulation for scheduling of distributed meetings in collaborative environments. Scheduling in CSCWD can be seen as a DCOP where variables represent time slots and values are resources of a production system (machines, raw-materials, hardware components, etc.) or management system (meetings, project tasks, human resources, money, etc). Therefore, a DCOP algorithm must find a set of variable assignments that maximize an objective function taking constraints into account. However, it is well known that such problems are NP-complete and that more research must be done to obtain feasible and reliable computational approaches. Thus, DCOP emerges as a very promising technique: the search space is decomposed into smaller spaces and agents solve local problems, collaborating in order to achieve a global solution. We show with empirical experiments that MULBS outperforms some of the state-of-the-art algorithms for DCOP, guaranteeing high quality solutions using less computational resources for the distributed meeting scheduling task.     

A new ECG beat clustering method based on kernelized fuzzy c-means and hybrid ant colony optimization for continuous domains

The kernelized fuzzy c-means algorithm uses kernel methods to improve the clustering performance of the well known fuzzy c-means algorithm by mapping a given dataset into a higher dimensional space non-linearly. Thus, the newly obtained dataset is more likely to be linearly seprable. However, to further improve the clustering performance, an optimization method is required to overcome the drawbacks of the traditional algorithms such as, sensitivity to initialization, trapping into local minima and lack of prior knowledge for optimum paramaters of the kernel functions. In this paper, to overcome these drawbacks, a new clustering method based on kernelized fuzzy c-means algorithm and a recently proposed ant based optimization algorithm, hybrid ant colony optimization for continuous domains, is proposed. The proposed method is applied to a dataset which is obtained from MIT–BIH arrhythmia database. The dataset consists of six types of ECG beats including, Normal Beat (N), Premature Ventricular Contraction (PVC), Fusion of Ventricular and Normal Beat (F), Artrial Premature Beat (A), Right Bundle Branch Block Beat (R) and Fusion of Paced and Normal Beat (f). Four time domain features are extracted for each beat type and training and test sets are formed. After several experiments it is observed that the proposed method outperforms the traditional fuzzy c-means and kernelized fuzzy c-means algorithms.     

基于群智能混合算法的物流配送路径研究

针对物流车辆路径优化问题,考虑到基本蚁群算法有收敛速度慢、易陷入局部最优的缺点,采用了一种双种群蚁群算法,在蚁群的基础上引入差分进化(DE)和粒子群算法(PSO)。通过在PSOAS种群和DEAS种群之间建立一种信息交流机制,使信息能够在两个种群中传递,以免某一方因错误的信息判断而陷入局部最优点。通过matlab仿真实验测试,表明该群智能混合算法可以较好地解决TSP的问题。