软件可靠性预测的增强贝叶斯组合模型

针对当前可靠性预测模型的预测精度问题,提出一种增强贝叶斯组合的短期软件可靠性预测模型。该模型以基于小波分解的单个可靠性预测模型作为基本预测模型, 根据当前相邻几个失效时间间隔的预测精度,更新组合模型中各个基本预测模型的权重,解决了贝叶斯组合模型权重计算采用全部历史数据而导致某个基本预测模型权值占主导地位的缺陷,提高了贝叶斯组合模型对软件可靠性的预测精度。实验结果表明,增强贝叶斯组合预测模型的预测精度不仅优于单一的预测方法,而且也优于传统的软件组合预测模型,能显著提高软件可靠性预测的精度和模型对数据的适应性。     

混凝土结构钢筋脱钝的随机可靠度分析

根据混凝土临界氯离子浓度和氯离子扩散系数与水灰比、环境温度等的关系式,计算出不同条件下受氯盐侵蚀混凝土结构50年内钢筋表面的氯离子浓度。在分析钢筋混凝土结构钢筋表面氯离子浓度随服役年限关系的基础上,用Monte Carlo方法对钢筋脱钝的随机可靠度进行分析。对保护层厚度、水灰比和环境温度等随机变量对海工混凝土结构钢筋脱钝概率的影响进行探讨。     

用户移动性建模及其应用

在移动通信中，移动性建模技术可以广泛用于移动性管理、无线资源管理、移动切换、话务分析等不同方面。文中首先提出移动性建模的基本假设，并建立一般的移动性模型；在此基础上，详细介绍几类不同的移动性模型，并给出移动性建模的具体应用。     

Balancing CapEx reduction and network stability with stable routing–virtual topology capacity adjustment (SR–VTCA)

This paper investigates the merits of the SR–VTCA (stable routing–virtual topology capacity adjustment) approach as a mechanism to find a beneficial trade-off between network stability and reduction in capital expenditures (CapEx). These are two main objectives for the entities that own the optical infrastructure, such as network operators (NOs), and those also acting as Internet service providers (ISPs). The SR–VTCA scheme is a novel approach to adapt transparent optical networks to time-varying traffic by adjusting the number of lightpaths between node pairs, while keeping the IP routing unchanged. Lightpath bundling (LB) and anycast (AS) switching are combined in SR–VTCA operation to advertise lightpath additions/removals to the IP layer as mere adjustments (increments or decrements) in the capacity, allowing to keep the IP routing stable, and thus, simplifying control plane operations. On the contrary, a fully-reconfigurable (FR) network design, where IP routing can be also modified, would increase the burden in the control plane, but at a higher CapEx reduction, since the optical infrastructure is used more efficiently. In this work, we investigate the CapEx overprovision introduced by SR–VTCA with respect to a FR scheme. In order to do this, SR–VTCA planning problem is first modeled as a MILP formulation. A heuristic procedure based on traffic domination is then proposed to solve large instances of the problem. Exhaustive experiments are conducted comparing the SR–VTCA solutions obtained by the aforementioned MILP and heuristic proposal with solutions found by other optimization methods presented in the literature to solve the FR planning problem. Finally, the results show that SR–VTCA can achieve similar results to the FR case in terms of CapEx reduction, while a huge number of IP reroutings are saved by maintaining IP stability. Thus, SR–VTCA provides an advantageous balance between CapEx overprovisioning and the control plane overhead associated with IP rerouting.     

中风化花岗岩中嵌岩桩承载性能原位试验与极限承载力预测

为深入探究中风化花岗岩中嵌岩桩的竖向抗压承载特性,对12根嵌岩桩进行了单桩竖向抗压静载原位试验与ABAQUS有限元数值模拟,通过多种方法对嵌岩单桩极限承载力进行评价,明确中风化花岗岩中嵌岩桩竖向抗压承载性状。研究表明:12根中风化花岗岩中嵌岩桩并非表现出完全端承桩,而是呈摩擦型桩或摩擦端承桩的性状;中风化花岗岩地基中的嵌岩桩竖向抗压极限承载力较高,桩顶沉降小,满足工程对基础的承载要求;有限元模拟荷载-沉降曲线与实测荷载-沉降曲线走势吻合度较高,桩顶沉降误差较小;本试验条件下,桩端阻力占桩顶荷载的56.9%,桩侧摩阻力占比为43.1%,桩侧摩阻力在荷载传递过程中发挥较充分;有限元模拟得到的单桩极限承载力与指数函数模型的预测结果较为吻合,可用于嵌岩桩单桩竖向抗压极限承载力的预测,以及嵌岩桩承载性状和荷载传递规律的分析。     

基础沉降变形的灰色预测方法与电子表制作(Ⅱ)——电子表制作方法与技巧

通过工程实例详细说明基础沉降变形灰色预测模型电子表格的制作方法、应该注意的问题、电子表的保护及个性化设计方法。最后总结了如何以“制作好的预测模型电子表”为工具,非常方便地解决其他工程的预测问题,并用实例说明了具体的操作过程。为帮助广大工程技术人员解决程序设计的困难,提供灰色预测的有力工具,同时也为大家用活电子表格系统解决其他实际问题提供了参考。     

煤质预测、预报与配煤入选

根据南桐选煤厂入选的原煤来源复杂、煤质差异大和产品用户多等特点,分析该厂在煤质预测、预报与配煤入选方面的可行性和必要性,并介绍煤质预测、预报和配煤方面的实践经验.     

Research on prediction for coal and gas outburst based on Matlab neural network toolbox and its application

In order to predict the danger of coal and gas outburst in mine coal layer correctly, on the basis of the VLBP and LMBP algorithm in Matlab neural network toolbox, one kind of modified BP neural network was put forth to speed up the network convergence speed in this paper. Firstly, according to the characteristics of coal and gas outburst, five key influencing factors such as excavation depth, pressure of gas, and geologic destroy degree were selected as the judging indexes of coal and gas outburst. Secondly, the prediction model for coal and gas outburst was built. Finally, it was verified by practical examples. Practical application demonstrates that, on the one hand, the modified BP prediction model based on the Matlab neural network toolbox can overcome the disadvantages of constringency and, on the other hand, it has fast convergence speed and good prediction accuracy. The analysis and computing results show that the computing speed by LMBP algorithm is faster than by VLBP algorithm but needs more memory. And the resuits show that the prediction results are identical with actual results and this model is a very efficient prediction method for mine coal and gas outburst, and has an important practical meaning for the mine production safety. So we conclude that it can be used to predict coal and gas outburst precisely in actual engineering.     

钻头钻进方向预测研究

在分析了影响钻头钻进方向的各种因素和提出钻头钻进特征矩阵的物理量后，建立了钻头在各向异性地层中钻进方向的预测模型。模型把钻进方向与所用钻头、钻井条件、井眼状态和所钻地层联系在一起，可以在任何钻井情况下预测一定底部钻具组合的方位漂移和造斜／降斜趋势。     

基于状态的测控设备维护决策方法

为解决定期预防性维护存在的弊端,提出了基于状态的测控设备维护决策方法,并参照OSA-CBM标准,构建了适用于测控系统的维护决策系统。通过对状态监测、故障诊断、性能评估、状态预测等关键技术的研究表明,该方法切实可行,可进一步提升测控设备维护管理水平。