Generation expansion planning in electricity markets: A novel framework based on dynamic stochastic MPEC

This paper presents a novel framework for generation expansion planning (GEP) of restructured power systems under uncertainty in a multi-period horizon, which includes generation investment from a price maker perspective. The investment problem is modeled as a bi-level optimization problem. The first level problem includes decisions related to investment in order to maximize total profit in the planning horizon. The second level problem consists of maximizing social welfare where the power market is cleared. Rival uncertainties on offering and investment are modeled using sets of scenarios. The bi-level optimization problem is then converted to a dynamic stochastic MPEC and represented as a mixed integer linear program (MILP) after linearization. The proposed framework is examined on a typical six-bus power network, MAZANDARAN regional electric company (MREC) transmission network as an area of IRAN interconnected power system and IEEE RTS 24-bus network. Simulation results confirm that the proposed framework can be a useful tool for analyzing the behavior of investments in electricity markets.     

Event-triggered variable horizon Supervisory Predictive control of hybrid power plants

The supervision of a hybrid power plant, including solar panels, a gas microturbine and a storage unit operating under varying solar power profiles is considered. The Economic Supervisory Predictive controller assigns the power references to the controlled subsystems of the hybrid cell using a financial criterion. A prediction of the renewable sources power is embedded into the supervisor. Results deteriorate when the solar power is unsteady, owing to the inaccuracy of the predictions for a long-range horizon of 10 s. The receding horizon is switched between an upper and a lower value according to the amplitude of the solar power trend. Theoretical results show the relevance of horizon switching, according to a tradeoff between performance and prediction accuracy. Experimental results, obtained in a Hardware In the Loop (HIL) framework, show the relevance of the variable horizon approach. Power amplifiers allow us to simulate virtual components, such as a gas microturbine, and to blend their powers with that of real devices (storage unit, real solar panels). In this case, fuel savings, reaching 15%, obtained under unsteady operating conditions lead to a better overall performance of the hybrid cell. The overall savings obtained in the experiments amount to 12%.     

A new reverse reduce-error ensemble pruning algorithm

Although greedy algorithms possess high efficiency, they often receive suboptimal solutions of the ensemble pruning problem, since their exploration areas are limited in large extent. And another marked defect of almost all the currently existing ensemble pruning algorithms, including greedy ones, consists in: they simply abandon all of the classifiers which fail in the competition of ensemble selection, causing a considerable waste of useful resources and information. Inspired by these observations, an interesting greedy Reverse Reduce-Error (RRE) pruning algorithm incorporated with the operation of subtraction is proposed in this work. The RRE algorithm makes the best of the defeated candidate networks in a way that, the Worst Single Model (WSM) is chosen, and then, its votes are subtracted from the votes made by those selected components within the pruned ensemble. The reason is because, for most cases, the WSM might make mistakes in its estimation for the test samples. And, different from the classical RE, the near-optimal solution is produced based on the pruned error of all the available sequential subensembles. Besides, the backfitting step of RE algorithm is replaced with the selection step of a WSM in RRE. Moreover, the problem of ties might be solved more naturally with RRE. Finally, soft voting approach is employed in the testing to RRE algorithm. The performances of RE and RRE algorithms, and two baseline methods, i.e., the method which selects the Best Single Model (BSM) in the initial ensemble, and the method which retains all member networks of the initial ensemble (ALL), are evaluated on seven benchmark classification tasks under different initial ensemble setups. The results of the empirical investigation show the superiority of RRE over the other three ensemble pruning algorithms.     

Science fiction reduces the eeriness of android robots: A field experiment

As suggested by the uncanny valley hypothesis, robots that resemble humans likely elicit feelings of eeriness. Based on the psychological model of meaning maintenance, we expected that the uncanny valley experience could be mitigated through a fictional story, due to the meaning-generating function of narratives. A field experiment was conducted, in which 75 participants interacted with the humanlike robot Telenoid. Prior to the interaction, they either read a short story, a non-narrative leaflet about the robot, or they received no preliminary information. Eeriness ratings were significantly lower in the science fiction condition than in both other conditions. This effect was mediated by higher perceived human-likeness of the robot. Our findings suggest that science fiction may provide meaning for otherwise unsettling future technologies.     

Prediction of sediment,particulate nutrient and dissolved nutrient concentrations in a dry tropical river to provide input to a mechanistic coastal water quality model

A Generalised Additive Modelling (GAM) approach is applied to prediction of both particulate and dissolved nutrient concentrations in a wet-tropical river (the Fitzroy River, Queensland, Australia). In addition to covariant terms considered in previous work (i.e. flow, discounted flow and a rising-falling limb term), we considered several new potential covariates: meteorological and hydrological variables that are routinely monitored, available in near-real time, and were considered to have potential predictive power. Of the additional terms considered, only flows from three tributaries of the Fitzroy River (namely, the Nogoa, Comet and Isaac Rivers) were found to significantly improve the model. Inclusion of one or more of these additional flow terms greatly improved results for dissolved nitrogen and dissolved phosphorus concentrations, which were not otherwise amenable to prediction. In particular, the Nogoa sub-catchment, dominated by pasture for cattle, was found to be important in determining dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations reaching the river mouth. This insight may direct further research, including future refinement of processed-based catchment models. The GAMs described here are used to provide near real-time river boundary conditions for a complex coupled hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model of the Great Barrier Reef Lagoon, and can be coupled with a forecasting hydrological model to allow integrated forecasting simulations of the catchment to coast system.     

Evolutionary collective behavior decomposition model for time series data mining

In this research, we propose a novel framework referred to as collective game behavior decomposition where complex collective behavior is assumed to be generated by aggregation of several groups of agents following different strategies and complexity emerges from collaboration and competition of individuals. The strategy of an agent is modeled by certain simple game theory models with limited information. Genetic algorithms are used to obtain the optimal collective behavior decomposition based on history data. The trained model can be used for collective behavior prediction. For modeling individual behavior, two simple games, the minority game and mixed game are investigated in experiments on the real-world stock prices and foreign-exchange rate. Experimental results are presented to show the effectiveness of the new proposed model.     

Landau-Zener模型中纠缠演化及转移的研究

研究了受外场驱动的两个二能级系统分别与两个单模量子化光场相互作用模型中纠缠演化及转移问题。该工作主要是对外场驱动的Landau-Zener模型进行了研究，采用旋转波近似的方法，通过数值计算详细分析了二能级系统初始状态、能级间的耦合常数以及驱动外场的参数对子系统间纠缠和转移特性的影响。结果表明，适当调节模型中的参数，可以使系统初始纠缠完全转移为光腔场间的纠缠，实现二能级系统与光场间的最大纠缠转移。     

Value chain analysis of bio-coal business in Finland: Perspectives from multiple value chain members

The purpose of this study is to provide a comprehensive outline of the Value Chain (VC)¹ of bio-coal in Finland, define the proper business models of bio-coal business, and investigate the interrelationships between VC activities. The major findings are: 1) the study found significant interrelationships between support and primary activities in the bio-coal VC which suggest that we should not emphasis only the core value/primary activities of the bio-coal business, but pay more attentions to the “side values”/support activities; 2) The study identified political and environmental factors as the effective drivers, while technology and cost-profit uncertainty as major restrictions for the Finnish bio-coal business. The authors would like to suggest that instead of purely “environmental concerns”, the term “sustainability credentials” should be emphasized, which means value creating and adding items should not limit to monetary values, but consider social and environmental value propositions. 3) The study identified “low competition” in the current bio-coal business in Finland, which implies opportunities of market entrance for Finnish and international companies; 4) The study identified that the current Finnish bio-coal model is the decentralized model at the local level. However, the future Finnish bio-coal model will be a large scaled model, with a focus on export sales.     

Nonlinear dynamic behaviors and control based on simulation of high-purity heat integrated air separation column

In this paper, the dynamic behaviors on the basis of simulation for high-purity heat integrated air separation column (HIASC) are studied. A nonlinear generic model control (GMC) scheme is proposed based on the nonlinear behavior analyses of a HIASC process, and an adaptive generic model control (AGMC) scheme is further presented to correct the model parameters online. Related internal model control (IMC) scheme and multi-loop PID (M-PID) scheme are also developed as the comparative base. The comparative researches are carried out among these linear and nonlinear control schemes in detail. The simulation research results show that the proposed AGMC schemes present advantages in both servo control and regulatory control for the high-purity HIASC.     

Adaptive robust boundary control of shaft vibrations under perturbations with unknown upper bounds

This paper presents robust and adaptive boundary control designs to stabilize the two‐dimensional vibration of hybrid shaft model. The hybrid shaft is mathematically represented by a set of partial differential equations, governing the shaft vibrations, coupled to ordinary differential equations, describing rigid body spinning and dynamic boundary conditions. The control objective is to stabilize the transverse vibrations of the perturbed shaft while regulating the spinning rate. To achieve this, the paper first establishes robust boundary control laws that fulfil the control objective in the presence of modeling uncertainties and external disturbances operating over the shaft domain and boundary. Lyapunov‐based analyses show that the proposed robust control exponentially stabilizes the shaft with vanishing distributive perturbations, while assuring ultimately bounded vibrations in the case of nonvanishing perturbations. Then, adaptive control philosophy is utilized to achieve redesigned robust controllers that only use online adaptation of control gains without acquiring the knowledge of bounds on perturbations, as well as dynamic parameters. An advantage of this design is avoiding an overconservative robust control law, which may induce poor stability and chattering in tackling system perturbations with unknown upper bounds. Simulations through finite element method illustrate the results. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.