Forecasting conditional correlations in stock,bond and foreign exchange markets

The paper forecasts conditional correlations between three classes of international financial assets, namely stock, bond and foreign exchange. Two countries are considered, namely Australia and New Zealand. Forecasting will be conducted using three multivariate GARCH models, namely the CCC model [T. Bollerslev, Modelling the coherence in short-run nominal exchange rates: a multivariate generalized ARCH model, Rev. Econ. Stat. 72 (1990) 498–505], VARMA-GARCH model [S. Ling, M. McAleer, Asymptotic theory for a vector ARMA-GARCH model, Econometric Theory 19 (2003) 280–310], and VARMA-AGARCH model [M. McAleer, S. Hoti, F. Chan, Structure and asymptotic theory for multivariate asymmetric volatility, Econometric Rev., in press]. A rolling window technique is used to forecast 1-day ahead conditional correlations. To evaluate the impact of model specification on conditional correlations forecasts, this paper calculates and compares the correlations between conditional correlations forecasts resulted from the three models. The paper finds the evidence of volatility spillovers and asymmetric effect of negative and positive shock on the conditional variance in most pairs of series. However, it suggests that incorporating volatility spillovers and asymmetric do not contribute to better conditional correlations forecasts.     

A reactive GRASP and path relinking for a combined production–distribution problem

An NP-hard production–distribution problem for one product over a multi-period horizon is investigated. The aim is to minimize total cost taking production setups, inventory levels and distribution into account. An integer linear model is proposed as a compact problem specification but it cannot be solved to optimality for large instances. Instead of using a classical two-phase approach (production planning and then route construction for each day), metaheuristics that simultaneously tackle production and routing decisions are developed: a GRASP (greedy randomized adaptive search procedure) and two improved versions using either a reactive mechanism or a path-relinking process. These algorithms are evaluated on 90 randomly generated instances with 50, 100 and 200 customers and 20 periods. The results confirm the interest of integrating production and distribution decisions, compared to classical two-phase methods. Moreover, reaction and path-relinking give better results than the GRASP alone.     

On the bounded-real and positive-real conditions for affine nonlinear state-delayed systems and applications to stability

In this paper, bounded-real conditions for affine nonlinear state-delayed systems are derived using the concept of dissipativeness. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the system to be dissipative and to have finite L₂-gain also referred to as the bounded-real condition are given. The implications on the stability of the system and feedback interconnections of such systems are also considered. Finally, an equivalent of the positive-real lemma is derived and its implications on stability of the system and feedback interconnections of such systems are similarly discussed.     

超声辅助离子热合成FeAPO-11分子筛

以1-甲基-3-乙基咪唑溴盐离子液体([emim]Br)为反应介质,采用离子热合成方法合成掺杂过渡金属铁的FeAPO-11分子筛。在合成过程中对FeAPO-11分子筛晶化原液进行超声辐照处理,研究了超声对FeAPO-11分子筛合成过程的影响。采用X射线衍射(XRD)和扫描电镜(SEM)对分子筛样品进行了表征。结果表明,经超声处理后合成的FeAPO-11分子筛样品的晶粒大小分布更均匀,平均粒径明显降低。     

Social class, child age, and parental socialization values.

Upper-, middle-, and lower-class parents were asked to explain a proverb which had both "growth" and "stability" interpretations to their 11- and 16-yr-old sons. The growth interpretation was overwhelmingly endorsed by most parents. With 16-yr-olds, lower-middle-class parents continued to endorse the growth interpretation; most upper-class parents endorsed the stability interpretation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Investigations of ferritic/martensitic super heat resistant 11‐12 %Cr steels for 650 °C power plants

The investigations of advanced ferritic/martensitic 11–12 %Cr steels for 650 °C power plant components focus on the improvement of high‐temperature creep properties with respect to chemical composition. The claim of the DFG research work was the development of new heat‐resistant 12 %Cr ferritic‐martensitic steels with sufficient creep and oxidation resistance for a 650 °C application by using basic principles and concepts of physical metallurgy on the basis of the state of art and to overcome the usual trial and error industrial alloy development. Efforts are focussed on a 100,000h creep strength of 100MPa at 650 °C in combination with a sufficient corrosion resistance by a Cr content of 12 % with contents 4‐5 %W, 3.4‐5,5 %Co, V, B and 1 %Cu as well as the choice of Ta or Ti instead of Nb. The results demonstrate that the aim is not to realize with the used alloying concept. In the long term range all 12 %Cr melts have a lower creep rupture strength than the advanced 9 %Cr piping steel P92. A high creep strength could be reached with a 0.06 % Ta alloyed 11 %Cr melt, which is in addition alloyed with a higher C and B content and as well as with lower W and Co portions. The results indicate in accordance with the finding of other steel researcher that a lower Cr content allows more effectiveness for the alloying partners respectively for the generation of more stable precipitates.     

“十一五”中国节能工作和铜的消费应用

节约资源,提高能源利用效率是中国经济发展的基本国策。在这个发展理念下制定的“十一五”规划将对铜行业有利有弊,但总体前景应是乐观的。随着电力、建筑、家电、汽车等行业的发展,中国铜消费量在2011年预计达到609.6万t,中国铜工业面临新的机遇与风险并存的发展时期。     

11C-胆碱在PET肿瘤显像中的应用

^18F-FDGPET在肿瘤学领域已经得到了深入研究和广泛应用。因大脑皮层对FDG的摄取甚高，并且FDG经泌尿系统进行排泄，使FDGPET显像在颅内及盆腔肿瘤的诊断方面受到限制。新近研究较多的肿瘤显像剂[^11C-甲基]胆碱（^11C-胆碱）在正常脑组织中代谢极低并且不通过泌尿系统排泄，克服了FDG在颅内及盆腔肿瘤临床应用上的不足。^11C-胆碱用于肿瘤显像的原理为：肿瘤细胞复制活跃，细胞膜的生物合成加快，导致肿瘤的胆碱摄取率增高。^11C-胆碱PET显像的初步临床应用表明其在脑瘤、前列腺癌、膀胱癌及妇科肿瘤的良恶性鉴别、疗效监测及复发评价方面比FDGPET显像有更大的优势。在肺癌、食道癌、骨肿瘤及软组织肿瘤的诊断和转移灶探查等方面，若FDG和^11C-胆碱联用可以提高诊断的准确率和灵敏度。^11C-胆碱将是一个很有前途的肿瘤PET显像剂。     

EMDR Therapy Following the 9/11 Terrorist Attacks: A Community-Based Intervention Project in New York City.

This article presents the results of a time-limited psychological relief effort using eye movement desensitization and reprocessing (EMDR) following the attacks on the World Trade Center on September 11, 2001. Clients made highly significant positive gains on a range of outcome variables, including validated psychometrics and self-report scales. Analyses of the data suggest 2 broad conclusions: EMDR is a useful treatment intervention both in the immediate aftermath of disaster as well as later; the longer treatment is delayed, the greater the level of disturbance experienced by clients. Also discussed are problems in conducting research during mass disaster response situations. A demonstration of an analog to a wait-list control group is provided. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

加密设备接口标准研究及实现分析

加密设备的接口规范是网络安全能统一实施的关键。Cryptoki是基于PKCS#11加密设备接口标准的编程接口，可用于各种可移植的密码设备。本文在阐述Cryptoki通用模型特点的基础上，具体分析了作为Unix类平台工业标准的OpenCryptoki的实现过程，为基于相关标准的编程接口的开发提供了参考。