一个不确定语言的多属性群决策风险评估模型

对于属性权重为实数、属性值以不确定语言变量形式给出的多属性群决策问题进行了研究,给出了一个模糊语言评估标度以及不确定语言变量运算法则和进行比较的可能度公式,提出了一个基于不确定语言加权平均算子和加权平均几何算子的多属性群决策方案.最后用实例说明方案的有效性.     

群体决策视角下的党政联席会议制度思考

院(系)党政联席会议制度的实施,体现了党组织在院(系)工作中的领导地位,加强了院(系)党政之间的沟通、融合,促进了党政决策的科学性与民主化,提升了院(系)领导班子的整体能力。但从群体决策的视角看,目前在该项制度的落实上,仍然存在着决策效率低、执行差别大、决策目标偏离、科学化程度不高等问题。必须从加强院(系)领导班子建设、完善配套制度、加强内部信息沟通、促进民主决策等方面着手,推进党政联席会议制度的进一步贯彻落实。     

Process control and risky decision-making: moderation by general mental ability and need for cognition

Human factors and ergonomics research could benefit from focusing more strongly on individual differences – especially trait variables. The present study suggests the analysis of moderator effects as a promising way to enhance understanding of trait variables and process control performance. Process control performance was studied by analysing moderator effects of general mental ability (GMA) and need for cognition (NC) on risky decision-making (RDM) and performance. Fifty engineering students were trained on a process control task using a computer-based simulation for three hours and tested twice thereafter. Risky decision-making was measured using a computerised gambling task while GMA and NC were assessed with questionnaires. Risky decision-making in interaction with each GMA and NC explained variance in performance over and above variance explained by the single effects. In conclusion, the analysis of moderator effects between individual difference variables and process control performance seems promising.

Practitioner Summary: Individual difference variables affect learning and performance, but have often not been studied to any great extent in human factors research. This article suggests a promising approach to studying individual differences – moderator analyses – and illustrates how such differences can lead to a better understanding of what determines process control performance.     

最大熵不确定型决策模型与应用

现有不确定型决策方法中,各种状态的不确定性没有在决策方法中得到体现,且没有充分挖掘利用益损值信息,不同的决策准则往往得到不同的决策结果,不利于决策者做出正确决策.鉴于此,提出了基于信息不确定性的最大熵决策模型,通过构建状态分布的信息熵和决策结果离差信息的多准则目标函数,以状态概率分布为优化变量,采用加速遗传算法优化求解.防洪调度决策分析结果显示,最大熵决策模型可充分挖掘益损值信息,基于信息熵的不确定性准则使状态概率分布更加合理,决策结果可区分性优于其他决策方法.     

Study of high efficiency of evaluation of a PDP in authorization service

In authorization service, the efficiency of evaluation of a PDP(policy decision point) is a key issue that affects the efficiency of authorization service. However, the efficiencies of evaluation of many PDPs available are frequently influenced by the factors of conditions in rules. Said Marouf et al put forward a method in which the evaluation speed can be increased by adjusting the rules in policies according to user history access records. This paper analyzes the shortcomings of this method in real-time applications, and proposes that the rules order in policies can be instantaneously adjusted by user history access records and indexes as well as self-adaptation are added to a PDP so that the evaluation speed can be increased substantially. Experimental results indicate that when there are 9795 rules in a PDP, the evaluation time and the time consumption taken for a PDP applied with indexes and self-adaptation to complete an authorized operation call are shortened by 93.33％ and 76.32％ respectively, compared with those for a PDP which is not applied with indexes and self-adaptation. When the number of repeat visits from the same user is 7, the time consumption taken for a PDP applied with indexes and adaptation to complete an authorized operation call is shortened by 24.29％ compared with that for a PDP which is applied with indexes only.     

基于综合云的不确定语言多准则群决策方法

针对准则权重已知、决策者权重未知、准则值为不确定语言的多准则群决策问题,提出一种基于云模型的决策方法.该方法首先将不确定语言值转化为综合云;然后采用生成浮动云的方法进行偏好集结,并通过计算＂不确定度＂和＂决策者偏差度＂求得决策者权重;最后引入Hamming距离求得贴近度大小,通过比较得到方案集的排序.实例分析表明了该方法的有效性和可行性.     

基于灰色系统理论的多属性群决策专家权重的调整算法

研究多属性群决策中专家权重的调整问题.在得到专家主观权重的基础上,提出一种权重调整算法.通过计算专家个体决策结果与群体决策结果的灰色关联度并结合初始权重求得专家的综合权重,运用专家的综合权重计算调整后的决策结果,并据此继续对权重进行调整,直至计算出稳定的权重和决策结果.通过对嵌入式计算机的性能评价表明了该方法的可行性与实用性.     

基于模糊多属性决策的工程评标模型

通过对建设工程评标的实际问题进行系统地分析和研究,建立了基于模糊多属性决策的工程评标模型,并通过一个工程评标算例论证了该评标模型的可行性与有效性.     

空间作战指挥决策的不确定性问题研究

决策活动是空间作战指挥活动的核心,不确定性是影响空间作战指挥决策效能的重要因素.提出了空间作战指挥决策与空间作战指挥决策不确定性的概念;给出了划分空间作战指挥决策不确定性问题的方法、依据;从组成要素的角度,研究了决策主体、决策工具、决策信息中存在的不确定性因素,以及对空间作战指挥决策的影响.     

副集上的双向粗决策与决策识别

A+s(X*),A-s(X*),分别是双向S 粗集的上副集，下副集.A+s(X*),A-s(X*)是具有动态特性的普通集合，As(X*)上的模糊决策结论是A+s(X*)和A-s(X*)上的模糊决策结论的叠加合成.本文提出副集上的双向粗决策的概念，双向粗决策判定定理和决策识别定理.本文的研究为解决动态决策因素域上的系统决策问题提供了新方法.