基于随机分析和概率预测的固定式海洋平台结构风险评估研究

对极端海况进行了环境荷载的联合概率分析。引入了整体不确定性和敏感性分析理论,利用非正态过程、具有不同相关性的多变量随机模拟技术,求解结构的失效概率。提出结构失效分析的新方法,并利用DNV提供的历史数据,对结构失效的后果做了适当分析。以埕北12-C井组平台为实例,对平台甲板高程(Air Gap)失效分析进行了实例计算。结果表明,使用多维联合极值分布理论及相应的求解方法,是离岸工程结构物风险评估的重要手段。     

大坝洪水漫顶风险评估

洪水漫顶是导致大坝溃坝的主要原因之一,大坝洪水漫顶风险评估是大坝风险评估的重要组成部分。为此,简要介绍了大坝洪水漫顶的风险模型,并通过实例详细地讨论了模型中各有关参数的不确定性处理方法,探讨了入库洪水的不确定性对洪水漫顶风险率的影响以及按规范设计的大坝的防洪能力问题。     

Effect of sampling density on the measurement of stream condition indicators in two lowland Australian streams

There is widespread application of indicators to the assessment of environmental condition of streams. These indicators are intended for use by managers in making various comparative and absolute assessments and often have a role in resource allocation and performance assessment. Therefore, the problem of formally defining confidence in the results is important but difficult because the sampling strategies used are commonly based on a compromise between the requirements of statistical rigour and the pragmatic issues of access and resources. It is rare to see this compromise explicitly considered and consequently there is seldom quantification of the uncertainty that could affect the confidence a manager has in an indicator. In this paper, we present a method for quantitatively assessing the tradeoffs between sampling density and uncertainty in meeting various monitoring objectives. Assessments using judgement‐based representative reaches are shown to be unreliable; instead a sampling approach is recommended based on the random selection of measuring sites. A detailed dataset was collected along two streams in Victoria, Australia, and the effect of sampling density was assessed by subsampling from this dataset with precision related to the number of sites assessed per reach length and the intensity of the sampling at each site. The sampling scheme to achieve a given precision is shown to depend on the monitoring objective. In particular, three objectives were considered: (1) making a baseline assessment of current condition; (2) change detection; and (3) detection of a critical threshold in condition. Change detection is shown to be more demanding than assessing baseline condition with additional sampling effort required to achieve the same precision. Sampling to detect a critical threshold depends on nominating acceptable values of Type I and II error and the size of the effect to be detected. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A framework to integrate software behavior into dynamic probabilistic risk assessment

Software plays an increasingly important role in modern safety-critical systems. Although, research has been done to integrate software into the classical probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) framework, current PRA practice overwhelmingly neglects the contribution of software to system risk. Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) is considered to be the next generation of PRA techniques. DPRA is a set of methods and techniques in which simulation models that represent the behavior of the elements of a system are exercised in order to identify risks and vulnerabilities of the system. The fact remains, however, that modeling software for use in the DPRA framework is also quite complex and very little has been done to address the question directly and comprehensively. This paper develops a methodology to integrate software contributions in the DPRA environment. The framework includes a software representation, and an approach to incorporate the software representation into the DPRA environment SimPRA. The software representation is based on multi-level objects and the paper also proposes a framework to simulate the multi-level objects in the simulation-based DPRA environment. This is a new methodology to address the state explosion problem in the DPRA environment. This study is the first systematic effort to integrate software risk contributions into DPRA environments.     

影响道路沥青低温抗裂性能的因素

用弯曲梁流变仪、直接拉伸试验机对7种国内外油源沥青样品进行了低温抗裂性能的评价，从沥青的四组分、相对分子质量及其分布来分析其对沥青低温抗裂性能的影响，结果表明，沥青的相对分子质量分布宽，对沥青的低温抗裂性能有利。     

炼铁生产环境负荷分析和预测研究

利用寿命周期评价的思想，计算了炼铁生产过程中的环境负荷，并分析了各因素对环境负荷的影响，运用神经网络对炼铁生产过程环境负荷进行了预测。     

Surface segregation studied by low-energy ion scattering: experiment and numerical simulation

The changes in surface composition of metallic alloys caused by segregation can be very efficiently studied by low-energy ion scattering (LEIS) due to the specific surface sensitivity of this technique. Investigations of single-crystal surfaces of ordered alloys are of particular interest because they provide the possibility to investigate the interplay between segregation effects and the order-disorder phase transition when passing through the transition temperature. Exemplifying these effects for bimetallic alloys we consider in particular the CuAu-system.For the quantitative interpretation of energy and angle resolved LEIS intensity distributions we compare experimental results with those from numerical simulations using the MARLOWE code which we extended with a detailed trajectory analysis. This allows us to apply various discrimination criteria, such as number of collisions, distance of closest approach, identification of the scattering crystal layer, total path length, etc. On this basis structural effects, ion survival probabilities and the influence of thermal vibrations can be studied.We demonstrate this potential by using CuAu(1 0 0) as a special example. The scattering potential parameters were calibrated with elemental single crystals of known structures and the anisotropic Debye temperatures taken from the literature showed good agreement, neutralization was of minor importance in this case. Our procedure could be successfully used for the quantitative analysis of the composition of the first and second layer as a function of temperature. These results are in good agreement with theoretical predictions.     

Douglas W. Bray (1918-2006).

Presents an obituary for Douglas W. Bray, the inventor of the modern-day assessment center, a method used by thousands of organizations around the world to identify the best people for critical roles and to guide individuals in optimizing their talents. Bray's death in Englewood, New Jersey, on May 9, 2006, ended the extraordinary career of a pioneer in industrial/organizational (I/O) psychology who optimized the interplay of research and application. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

铸铁热分析用试样新型激冷剂的实验研究

从冷却曲线上相变段倾角最小原则出发，研究了新型激冷剂的配比与热分析法检测铸铁成分精度的关系，实验结果表明，能使相变段倾角最小的成分配比，也能提高对铸铁成分的热分析和检测精度。     

HIS变换用于数字化航空片影象同多光谱影象的复合

本文探讨ＨＩＳ变换对数字化航空片影象与ｌａｎｄｓａｔ ＴＭ多光谱影象进行复合的方法，并在此基础上提出一种改进的方法。试验结果表明本文提出的方法是一种非常行之有效的方法。复合后的影象不仅保留了ＴＭ影像的光谱特征，而且将其空间分解力由３０ｍ提高到１０ｍ，清晰度也提高了。因而复合后的影像能提高分类精度，制作专题图的精度、多时相监测能力和解译水平等。