A new time invariant fuzzy time series forecasting method based on particle swarm optimization

In the analysis of time invariant fuzzy time series, fuzzy logic group relationships tables have been generally preferred for determination of fuzzy logic relationships. The reason of this is that it is not need to perform complex matrix operations when these tables are used. On the other hand, when fuzzy logic group relationships tables are exploited, membership values of fuzzy sets are ignored. Thus, in defiance of fuzzy set theory, fuzzy sets’ elements with the highest membership value are only considered. This situation causes information loss and decrease in the explanation power of the model. To deal with these problems, a novel time invariant fuzzy time series forecasting approach is proposed in this study. In the proposed method, membership values in the fuzzy relationship matrix are computed by using particle swarm optimization technique. The method suggested in this study is the first method proposed in the literature in which particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to determine fuzzy relations. In addition, in order to increase forecasting accuracy and make the proposed approach more systematic, the fuzzy c-means clustering method is used for fuzzification of time series in the proposed method. The proposed method is applied to well-known time series to show the forecasting performance of the method. These time series are also analyzed by using some other forecasting methods available in the literature. Then, the results obtained from the proposed method are compared to those produced by the other methods. It is observed that the proposed method gives the most accurate forecasts.     

The quantifier structure of sentences that characterize nondeterministic time complexity

For every nondeterministic Turing machineM of time complexityT(n), there is a second-order sentence of a very restricted form, whose set of finite models encodes the set of strings recognized byM. Specifically, has a relational symbol which is interpreted as addition restricted to finite segments of the natural numbers, and a prefix consisting of existentially quantified unary second-order variables followed by a universal-existential first-order part. Here, every input stringx is encoded by a model of sizeT(|x|). Using a closely related encoding of strings as models where the size of the model is the length of the string, a consequence is that ifT(n)=n ^d, then there is a sentence with a similar prefix but whose second-order variables ared-ary and whose finite models encode the strings accepted byM. Potential applications to low-level complexity are discussed.     

基于MCS-51系列单片机时间控制器软件的设计与实现

本文设计的基于MCS-51系列单片机时间控制器主要应用AT89C51作为控制核心,采用实时时钟芯片DSl302、EipROM24C02及动态数码显示相结合。具有硬件电路简单、软件功能完善、控制系统可靠、性价比较高等特点,具有一定的使用和参考价值。     

基于单片机的皮带秤变频调速控制仪的设计与实现

介绍了皮带秤调速控制仪系统实现的原理和方法,提出了在皮带秤调速控制仪的动态跟踪问题,采用模糊-数字PID复合控制算法,既可计量也可以实时跟踪控制产量。实践表明,该控制方法理想地解决了实时跟踪问题,取得了较好的控制效果。     

基于时间序列模式表示的异常检测算法*

提出了一种基于时间序列的模式表示提取时间序列异常值的异常检测算法(PREOV).时间序列的模式表示本身就具有压缩数据、保持时间序列基本形态的功能,并且具有一定的除噪能力.在时间序列模式表示的基础上提取异常值,可以大大提高算法的效率和准确性,达到事半功倍的效果.在本算法中,还使用了一定的剪枝策略,使得算法的时间复杂度进一步降低.该算法计算简单、实现方便、无须训练,可以支持时间序列的动态增长.     

LF软吹时间对硅脱氧弹簧钢氧化物夹杂控制影响

 对于一些采用硅锰脱氧冶炼工艺的特殊钢,为保证钢水洁净度,常会选择较长时间的LF软吹处理,导致过程能耗增加。通过工业试验,借助FEI Explorer 4自动扫描电镜检测,研究不同LF精炼软吹时间对硅脱氧弹簧钢55SiCr铸坯氧化物夹杂成分、数量的影响;并采用夹杂物极值统计法,对比评价不同LF精炼软吹时间对应成品盘条横截面最大夹杂物尺寸控制情况。结果表明,在LF软吹10 min与软吹40 min 两种工艺条件下,铸坯中尺寸大于5 μm的氧化物夹杂成分接近,均在CaO-SiO₂-Al₂O₃相图中假硅灰石、钙长石和钙铝黄长石共晶低熔点区,其中软吹10 min工艺铸坯氧化物夹杂组成落入低熔点区的数量所占比例更大。LF软吹10 min与软吹40 min铸坯中尺寸大于5 μm的氧化物夹杂数量密度分别为11.70个/100 mm2和14.59个/100 mm2,尺寸大于15 μm 的氧化物夹杂数量密度分别为0.53个/100 mm2和1.65个/100 mm2,LF软吹10 min工艺铸坯大尺寸氧化物夹杂数量密度略低于LF软吹40 min工艺。当预测面积为30 000 mm2时,两种LF软吹时间对应成品盘条横截面最大夹杂物尺寸分别为27.1 μm和28.1 μm,盘条最大夹杂物尺寸控制无显著差别。结合硅锰脱氧钢中大尺寸低熔点CaO-SiO₂-Al₂O₃系夹杂物主要源自钢包渣乳化卷入,具有与钢水和氩气泡界面接触角很小、难以通过吹氩上浮去除的特点,建议硅锰脱氧钢LF软吹过程按短时间快节奏进行控制。     

缩短机械加工中零件等待时间的方法讨论

在机械制造系统中，零件在各工序间加工及流转，一般情况下许多工序难免存在零件等待加工的现象。为了提高系统的加工性能，本文利用现代仿真技术及排队论，通过优化工件在各相关工序的加工时间，从而消除工序中存在的工件等待加工现象。文章提出的方法还可用来预测机械制造系统的运行性能、比较各种可供选择的方案以及实现制造系统决策的优化。     

DD3单晶镍基合金蠕变—疲劳及寿命预测

从应变范围区分法(SRP),应变能区分法(SEP)的有关概念出发,研究DD3单晶镍基合金拉—拉应力状态下的蠕变—疲劳性能和保持时间的影响,并对其进行了定量计算;同时,用应变能区分法的数值法(SEP—NCM)实现对拉—拉应力状态下蠕变—疲劳的寿命预测。     

Effect of additives on formation of natural gas hydrate

The formation of natural gas hydrate (NGH) is studied in this work. Kinetics data of hydrate formation with no agitation were collected at various concentrations of the aqueous solutions with different additives such as alkylpolyglucside, sodium dodecyl benzene sulfonate and potassium oxalate monohydrate. Various kinds of additive increased the formation rates of NGH and its storage capacity and reduced the induction time of NGH formation. Moreover, the storage capacity, the induction time and the hydrate formation rate were influenced by the concentration of the aqueous solution.