基于引力搜索算法的分数阶变异时序回归GSA-TSGM(1,1)模型

为了利用分数阶累加算子在灰色短期预测中的高效性能,首次将分数阶累加算子引入变异时序回归模型以期取得更高的预测精度。主要方法如下：首先取湖北省链子崖某监测点1978—1987年的十年数据作为训练集并使用引力搜索算法确定最佳分数阶累加阶数,而1988—1993年的六年数据作为验证集验证提出的模型;其次对比了经典灰色模型GM(1,1)、分数阶累加灰色模型、变异时序回归模型TSGM(1,1)三种灰色模型。结果如下：首先修正了陈西江等人变异时序回归模型仿真时出现的错误,其次表明了相比于其他的模型,基于引力搜索算法的分数阶累加时序回归模型在进行灰色长期预测中具有较高的预测精度。因此,通过分数阶累加算子提高了灰色理论中长期预测模型的精度,为灰色长期预测提供了指导。     

Configurational statistics of copolymers prepared by complex-radical polymerization

Radical copolymerization is considered theoretically taking into account the effect of complexing on the configurational statistics of macromolecules formed. Akinetic model has been developed that considers, apart from the ordinary addition of single monomer units to a propagating chain, the possible addition of monomer unit pairs along with a complexing agent in the form of a ternary complex. Within the framework of this model, the problem of calculating the probabilities of formation of any sequences of monomer units (taking into account their microtacticity) in a macromolecule has been rigorously solved as well as the problem of finding the composition distribution of the copolymer formed. It has been shown that this distribution is described by a conventional Gauss law and the appropriate parameters are given. Possible generalizations of the suggested approach are indicated.     

工业装置爆炸事故过程与机理分析(续)

爆炸事故是工业装置和工业过程危害最大的灾害形式。研究和掌握工业装置爆炸机理与过程规律以及预防措施是工业装置安全生产运行的核心技术之一。文章从工业装置爆炸能量、爆炸机理及转换条件等总体结构方面作了一般性的表层分析。     

Accelerating incremental checkpointing for extreme-scale computing

Concern is beginning to grow in the high-performance computing (HPC) community regarding the reliability of future large-scale systems. Disk-based coordinated checkpoint/restart has been the dominant fault tolerance mechanism in HPC systems for the past 30 years. Checkpoint performance is so fundamental to scalability that nearly all capability applications have custom checkpoint strategies to minimize state and reduce checkpoint time. One well-known optimization to traditional checkpoint/restart is incremental checkpointing, which has a number of known limitations. To address these limitations, we describe libhashckpt, a hybrid incremental checkpointing solution that uses both page protection and hashing on GPUs to determine changes in application data with very low overhead. Using real capability workloads and a model outlining the viability and application efficiency increase of this technique, we show that hash-based incremental checkpointing can have significantly lower overheads and increased efficiency than traditional coordinated checkpointing approaches at the scales expected for future extreme-class systems.     

大规模水电系统优化调度降维方法研究I:理论分析

中国水电系统规模持续扩张,使得已有方法在求解大规模水电调度问题时,存在严重维数灾及早熟收敛等不同程度局限,亟需分析已有方法以便发现其瓶颈所在,为探寻能均衡求解效率与计算精度的实用化方法提供有益参考。为此,首先深入研究了线性规划、二次规划和动态规划等多种方法的计算复杂度,然后定量对比分析了各方法在不同情景下的适用性,最后提出“四维一体可拓降维”总体思想,并给出具体的降维方法与策略,建议从空间维、时间维、状态维和组合维等4个方面开展综合研究,以切实服务于大规模水电系统优化调度的高效优质求解。     

梯级水电站施工导流风险效益补偿机制研究

汛期通过上游已建水电站调蓄可保障下游施工电站的度汛安全。为有效均衡上下游风险,合理分摊合作利益,对梯级水电站施工导流风险效益进行了补偿机制的设计。以总效益可量化为前提,提出补偿是落实风险效益分摊的一种支付行为,分别从补偿主客体的界定、责权利的划分、风险效益计量、补偿实施方式、补偿管理流程设计等方面,构建了梯级水电开发条件下施工导流风险效益补偿框架和程序。针对补偿制度实施存在的难点,提出了相应的对策和建议,可为流域梯级水电站风险效益补偿管理模式和制度的构建提供参考。     

离子膜碱浓缩装置的比较

从工艺流程、设备材质、操作、汽耗等方面对双效逆流降膜浓缩装置和双效逆流板式蒸发器浓缩装置进行了比较,结果表明两种浓缩装置各有特点。     

提高小水电线路重合闸成功率探讨

小水电具有无污染、分布广等特点,在农村或偏远山区应用广泛。但小水电难以迅速调节自身的功率,在因故障跳闸而形成孤岛时,容易导致重合闸失败。通过阐述、分析当前小水电并网重合闸的原理和现状,归纳了影响重合闸成功率的相关因素,以期为电网的安全、稳定运行作出贡献。     

锦屏一级水电站左岸底层灌浆平洞深孔帷幕灌浆施工

锦屏一级水电站作为世界第一高的拱坝,在超高的水头和复杂的地质条件下,在底层灌浆洞中进行了超过170 m的深孔帷幕灌浆。施工中克服了各种不利条件,解决了多种非常规的施工技术难题,其经验可为其他类似工程提供参考。     

离子膜片碱装置的国产化改造

介绍了对离子膜片碱装置部分设备如F-1A片碱机转鼓、降膜浓缩器、碱液预热器等国产化改造的过程及运行效果。