The negated conditional: A litmus test for the suppositional conditional?

Under the suppositional account of conditionals, when people think about a conditional assertion, "if p then q," they engage in a mental simulation in which they imagine p holds and evaluate the probability that q holds under this supposition. One implication of this account is that belief in a conditional equates to conditional probability [P(q/p)]. In this paper, the authors examine a further implication of this analysis with respect to the wide-scope negation of conditional assertions, "it is not the case that if p then q." Under the suppositional account, nothing categorically follows from the negation of a conditional, other than a second conditional, "if p then not-q." In contrast, according to the mental model theory, a negated conditional is consistent only with the determinate state of affairs, p and not-q. In 4 experiments, the authors compare the contrasting predictions that arise from each of these accounts. The findings are consistent with the suppositional theory but are incongruent with the mental model theory of conditionals. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

支持向量机在交通量预测中的应用

交通量预测对于区域交通规划有重要意义。提出一种基于支持向量机理论的交通量预测方法。该方法以统计学习理论为基础，通过和BP神经网络进行比较的实验，证明其在交通量预测中的有效性。     

A Detection-Theoretic Model of Echo Inhibition.

A detection-theoretic analysis of the auditory localization of dual-impulse stimuli is described, and a model for the processing of spatial cues in the echo pulse is developed. Although for over 50 years "echo suppression" has been the topic of intense theoretical and empirical study within the hearing sciences, only a rudimentary understanding of its mechanisms has emerged. In this article, psychometric functions and results from matching studies are used in developing a model that specifies the perceived position of the echo pulse as a normal deviate, with an expectation that is a logistic function of the echo delay and a variance that depends on interaural time difference. Loss of information in the echo event is quantified as a decline in the efficiency with which the binaural system receives information from the lag impulse. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Information-Based Evaluation Criterion for Classifier's Performance

In the past few years many systems for learning decision rules from examples were developed. As different systems allow different types of answers when classifying new instances, it is difficult to appropriately evaluate the systems' classification power in comparison with other classification systems or in comparison with human experts. Classification accuracy is usually used as a measure of classification performance. This measure is, however, known to have several defects. A fair evaluation criterion should exclude the influence of the class probabilities which may enable a completely uninformed classifier to trivially achieve high classification accuracy. In this paper a method for evaluating the information score of a classifier's answers is proposed. It excludes the influence of prior probabilities, deals with various types of imperfect or probabilistic answers and can be used also for comparing the performance in different domains.     

An intelligent decision theoretic approach to producibility optimization in conceptual design

Product optimization involves selecting design, manufacturing, and support attributes that can produce the best system. Producibility or manufacturability is the term often used to describe the relative ease of manufacturing a product. In complex systems, productibility optimization is a very difficult process, particularly when the values of many attributes are restricted by constraints. One challenge is to develop more universal producibility metrics for the conceptual design phase when design information is limited and drawings are nondimensional. This paper develops a new method for producibility optimization in conceptual design based on a combination of both decision theoretic and expert system techniques. Decision theoretic techniques provide the means to model the design for producibility problem in a manner that can deal with risk, uncertainty, and user (or corporate) preferences, and can effectively integrate diverse factors to provide a measure of the overall worth of a design. The particular decision theoretic approach employed is based on multi-attribute utility theory. An illustrative example of the methodology is applied to the conceptual design of a structural composite part.     

Consolidation of Long-Term Memory: Evidence and Alternatives.

Memory loss in retrograde amnesia has long been held to be larger for recent periods than for remote periods, a pattern usually referred to as the Ribot gradient. One explanation for this gradient is consolidation of long-term memories. Several computational models of such a process have shown how consolidation can explain characteristics of amnesia, but they have not elucidated how consolidation must be envisaged. Here findings are reviewed that shed light on how consolidation may be implemented in the brain. Moreover, consolidation is contrasted with alternative theories of the Ribot gradient. Consolidation theory, multiple trace theory, and semantization can all handle some findings well but not others. Conclusive evidence for or against consolidation thus remains to be found. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

基于排队理论的渠道容量设计

在设计一个新的灌溉配水系统时，渠道容量是一个不易确定的参数，因为农场用户提出供水的时间和水量通常是不确定的，取决于季节、气候、农作物种类等因素。渠道容量对灌溉投资和服务质量有重要的影响。提出运用排队理论确定渠道容量的大小。依据该理论，服务系统需提供的容量取决于将要达到的服务水平，以及顾客到达时间和服务时间的平均密度和分布规律。将灌溉渠道容量比作排队系统的服务能力。研究了指数分配和非指数分配模型及10个连续的灌溉周期。计算实例显示，同传统的Clement方程相比，该方法的结果相当可信。     

Dynamique motivationnelle de l'epuisement et du bien-etre chez des enseignants africains.

This study examines the links between antecedents and consequences of Gabonese teachers' (N= 152) work motivation. The theoretical underpinnings are based on the Motivational Model of Job Burnout (MMJB) which is grounded in Self-Determination Theory (SDT) and states that the more supervisors satisfy an employee's need for self-determination, competence, and relatedness, the more self-determined is the latter's work motivation. The level of self-determined motivation has an impact on job satisfaction, which in turn determines life satisfaction. Higher levels of self-determined motivation also buffer emotional exhaustion and psychological distress. The model was confirmed via structural equation modeling and provides support for the validity and generalizability of the MMJB and SDT. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Dynamic stiffness vibration analysis using a high‐order beam model

This work presents the derivation of the exact dynamic stiffness matrix for a high‐order beam element. The terms are found directly from the solutions of the differential equations that describe the deformations of the cross‐section according to the high‐order theory, which include cubic variation of the axial displacements over the cross‐section of the beam. The model has six degrees of freedom at the two ends, one transverse displacement and two rotations, and the end forces are a shear force and two end moments. Using the dynamic stiffness matrix exact vibration frequencies for beams with various combinations of boundary conditions are tabulated and compared with results from the Bernoulli–Euler and Timoshenko beam models. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Many-Body Terms in van der Waals Cohesion Energy of Nanotubes

We have developed a model for the calculation of van der Waals force for layered systems with axial symmetry. Our result can be applied to compute the cohesion of a carbon nanotube to a substrate, the cohesion between nanotubes, and between shells of multiwall nanotubes. We have obtained unusal power laws for the distance dependence of the many-body van der Waals potential.