Markov analysis of qualitative dynamics1

Common sense sometimes predicts events to be likely or unlikely rather than merely possible. We extend methods of qualitative reasoning to predict the relative likelihoods of possible qualitative behaviors by viewing the dynamics of a system as a Markov chain over its transition graph. This involves adding qualitative or quantitative estimates of transition probabilities to each of the transitions and applying the standard theory of Markov chains to distinguish persistent states from transient states and to calculate recurrence times, settling times, and probabilities for ending up in each state. Much of the analysis depends solely on qualitative estimates of transition probabilities, which follow directly from theoretical considerations and which lead to qualitative predictions about entire classes of systems. Quantitative estimates for specific systems are derived empirically and lead to qualitative and quantitative conclusions, most of which are insensitive to small perturbations in the estimated transition probabilities. The algorithms are straightforward and efficient.     

A direct estimate of JIc from the load versus load-line displacement record

The purpose of this study is to examine the current standard fracture toughness test procedure to determine if there could be an easier method to get a J_Ic value from the test record. The current method for determining J_Ic involves a detailed computational and construction procedure. The objective in this study is to simplify the analysis for the determination of J_Ic. The results of this study show that the load and displacement record for a fracture toughness test can be used to directly estimate a J_Q value, a provisional value for fracture toughness, J_Ic. The J value taken at the maximum load point can be used along with an adjustment factor to estimate a J_Q value. This J_Q estimate is close to the one obtained from the construction procedure of ASTM Standard E 1820. When a unit‐sized specimen is tested, that is, a specimen with a width of 50 mm and a thickness of 25 mm the maximum load point provides a direct estimate of J_Q. Other sizes require a size adjustment factor, which is simply a square root relationship between the width of the test specimen and a unit width. The proposed new method of estimating J_Q is simple in concept and requires a minimum number of calculations. It appears to produce values of J_Q which are comparable to those obtained from the ASTM E1820 construction procedure and may produce less scatter.     

Model Selection in Applied Science and Engineering: A Decision-Theoretic Approach

Mathematical models are developed and used to study the properties of complex systems in just about every area of applied science and engineering. Information on the system being modeled is, in general, incomplete, so that there may be two or more models consistent with the available information. The collection of these models is called the class of candidate models. A decision-theoretic method is developed for selecting the optimal member from the collection. The optimal model depends on the available information, the class of candidate models, and the model use. The candidate models may be deterministic or random. Classical methods for model selection, including the method of maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods, are briefly reviewed. These methods ignore model use and require data to be available. In addition, examples are used to show that classical methods for model selection can be unreliable in the sense that they can deliver unsatisfactory models when data is limited. The proposed decision-theoretic method for model selection does not have these limitations. The method accounts for model use via a utility function. This feature is especially important when modeling high-risk systems where the consequences of using an inappropriate model for the system can be disastrous.     

ISIS全局优化多道反演技术在墩2块岩性油藏描述中的应用

为进一步落实墩2块戴一段岩性油藏成藏规模及分布规律，针对该储层薄、横向变化快的特点，利用ISIS全局优化多道反演技术，对该构造区岩性储层进行了精细描述，较好的预测出戴一段储层平面分布规律。     

Fuzzy Multiobjective and Linear Programming Based Management Models for Optimal Land-Water-Crop System Planning

In this article, linear programming and fuzzy optimization models are developed for planning and management of available land-water-crop system of Mahanadi-Kathajodi delta in eastern India. The models are used to optimize the economic return, production and labour utilization, and to search the related cropping patterns and intensities with specified land, water, fertilizer and labour availability, and water use pattern constraints. Due to extreme backwardness of the study area, it has been decided to keep all the three objectives of the linear programming models at the same priority level to obtain the compromised solution in a fuzzy environment that incorporates the imprecision in fuzzy goals and fuzzy constraints. These non-structural models facilitate the conjunctive use of available surface water and groundwater resources. A comparative evaluation along with the benefit-cost ratios of the existing and proposed farming systems is also presented.     

非透视3点问题的解析解

由于在机器人导航等领域新的图像装置不符合透视规则,无法运用传统的透视位置估计方法,采用吴氏零点分解方法,给出非透视3点问题的解析解.利用新图像装置的几何条件,建立了非透视3点方程系统.     

时滞系统控制问题块脉冲算子解的收敛性

本文给出了一种基于块脉冲算子的离散逼近格式.应用这种逼近格式,可以获得时滞非 线性最优控制问题的块脉冲级数解.本文证明了这种块脉冲级数解将收敛于这类问题的精 确解,并具有一阶收敛速度.     

Generation and selection of likely interpretations during plan recognition in task-oriented consultation systems

This paper presents a mechanism which infers a user's plans from his/her utterances by directing the inference process towards the more likely interpretations of a speaker's statements among many possible interpretations. Our mechanism uses Bayesian theory of probability to assess the likelihood of an interpretation, and it complements this assessment by taking into consideration two aspects of an interpretation: its coherence and its information content. The coherence of an interpretation is determined by the relationships between the different statements in the discourse. The information content of an interpretation is a measure of how well defined the interpretation is in terms of the actions to be performed on the basis of this interpretation. This measure is used to guide the inference process towards interpretations with higher information content. The information content of an interpretation depends on the specificity and the certainty of the inferences in it, where the certainty of an inference depends on the knowledge on which the inference is based. Our mechanism has been developed for use in task-oriented consultation systems. The particular domain that we have chosen for exploration is that of travel booking.     

利用多普勒信息的波达方向最大似然估计方法

为了充分利用信号的时域特性来改善信号波达方向（ＤＯＡ）的估计性能，本文从最大似然估计出发，推导出了有限快拍，低信噪比情况下多普勒信号波达方向的迭代估计计算法，为进一步减小运算量，本文还推导了一种简化算法，本文提出的两种算法对低信噪比，少快拍数下多普勒信号的ＤＯＡ估计性能比不利用时域特性的ＭＬ方法有明显改善，Ｍｏｎｔｅ－Ｃａｒｌｏ实验验证了本文方法的有效性。     

带限信号高频重建的一种新的正则外推算法

本文提出生种新的带限信号的外推方法，该方法能够很好地抑制噪声干扰，且计算复杂性较低，本文给出算法，证明了收敛性，最后给出了误差计算机实验结果。