辨识时变系统遗忘因子算法的收敛性分析

著名的递推遗忘因子算法（ＲＦＦＡ）可以用辨识时变系统参数，具有良好的跟踪性能，本文借助于随机过程理论分析了ＲＦＦＡ的收敛性和稳定性，给出了参数跟踪误差的上下界。     

编制渤化小区工程概算的体会

作者根据自身体会，全面、系统地总结了编制一份高质量的概算文件必须注意的问题．     

Can Fusion and Fission Breeding Help Civilization Survive?

As apparent from the title, this author feels that civilization faces a real threat, one which will become obvious and serious within the lifetimes of many readers of this article. This threat is not global warming, but lack of affordable energy. We take for granted turning on a light, or adjusting our thermostats in winter or summer, or filling our cars gas tank; and lose sight of the fact that there are huge and complicated industrial systems which make this possible. But as we run out of petroleum and natural gas, and worry about the environmental and climatic effects of burning coal on the required scale, how can this continue? This paper makes the case that breeding nuclear fuel, by both fusion and fission, is the only way our civilization as we know it, can continue beyond the next half century or so.     

An evaluation system of the setting up of predictive maintenance programmes

Predictive Maintenance can provide an increase in safety, quality and availability in industrial plants. However, the setting up of a Predictive Maintenance Programme is a strategic decision that until now has lacked analysis of questions related to its setting up, management and control. In this paper, an evaluation system is proposed that carries out the decision making in relation to the feasibility of the setting up. The evaluation system uses a combination of tools belonging to operational research such as: Analytic Hierarchy Process, decision rules and Bayesian tools. This system is a help tool available to the managers of Predictive Maintenance Programmes which can both increase the number of Predictive Maintenance Programmes set up and avoid the failure of these programmes. The Evaluation System has been tested in a petrochemical plant and in a food industry.     

一种基于Hough变换的声呐对目标航迹检测算法研究

为提高声呐对目标航迹的检测性能,从单部声呐时间融合的角度出发,提出了一种基于Hough变换的声呐信号检测算法。该算法把航迹上的观测点变换为参数空间的对应曲线,充分利用一段时间内的目标观测数据,在低信噪比下也能从背景噪声中提取目标的航迹特征,提高了声呐的检测概率,且对部分信息和数据的缺失不敏感。仿真试验证明了该算法的有效性。     

Reliability-based failure cause assessment of collapsed bridge during construction

Until now, in many forensic reports, the failure cause assessments are usually carried out by a deterministic approach so far. However, it may be possible for the forensic investigation to lead to unreasonable results far from the real collapse scenario, because the deterministic approach does not systematically take into account any information on the uncertainties involved in the failures of structures.Reliability-based failure cause assessment (reliability-based forensic engineering) methodology is developed which can incorporate the uncertainties involved in structural failures and structures, and to apply them to the collapsed bridge in order to identify the most critical failure scenario and find the cause that triggered the bridge collapse. Moreover, to save the time and cost of evaluation, an algorithm of automated event tree analysis (ETA) is proposed and possible to automatically calculate the failure probabilities of the failure events and the occurrence probabilities of failure scenarios. Also, for reliability analysis, uncertainties are estimated more reasonably by using the Bayesian approach based on the experimental laboratory testing data in the forensic report. For the applicability, the proposed approach is applied to the Hang-ju Grand Bridge, which collapsed during construction, and compared with deterministic approach.     

基于二阶矩阵微分方程的机械振动系统线性二次型调节器设计

本文讨论机械振动系统线性二次型状态调节器（LQR）问题，直接针对系统二阶运动微分方程，性能指标为一个依赖于二阶导数的泛函。由欧拉-拉格朗日方程得出一个系统矩阵增广的二阶线性微分方程，指出该方程稳定的特征对就是最优控制振动系统闭环特征对，并给出求解最优控制状态反馈矩阵的方法，另外，由本文方法还可得出基于速度和加速度反馈的最优控制反馈矩阵。这里不涉及求解代数矩阵Riccati方程。     

The Year 2015 Fusion Power Conversations

Assuming significant technical success in the ITER project by the year 2015, it is likely that governments will want to develop a more comprehensive plan for DT tokamak fusion power commercialization. To provide a glimpse into many of the related issues, we construct conversations between the director of the U.S. fusion program and three specialists key to commercial fusion success: an environment and safety regulator, an environmentalist, and an electric generation investor. The insights from these imagined conversations will hopefully be of value as tokamak fusion power proponents plan beyond ITER.     

调谐质量阻尼器参数设计中的两个问题

本文以单自由度系统安装一个调谐质量阻尼器（简称TMD）为例，对抗风和抗震两类不同激励工况下TMD的参数设计问题进行了理论研究与对比分析。通过给出相对误差系数的概念，定量评价了不同的参数方法对TMD减振性能的影响程度。本文的研究为TMD的参数设计提供了理论指导。     

Learning Recursive Bayesian Multinets for Data Clustering by Means of Constructive Induction

This paper introduces and evaluates a new class of knowledge model, the recursive Bayesian multinet (RBMN), which encodes the joint probability distribution of a given database. RBMNs extend Bayesian networks (BNs) as well as partitional clustering systems. Briefly, a RBMN is a decision tree with component BNs at the leaves. A RBMN is learnt using a greedy, heuristic approach akin to that used by many supervised decision tree learners, but where BNs are learnt at leaves using constructive induction. A key idea is to treat expected data as real data. This allows us to complete the database and to take advantage of a closed form for the marginal likelihood of the expected complete data that factorizes into separate marginal likelihoods for each family (a node and its parents). Our approach is evaluated on synthetic and real-world databases.