Using the analytic network process (ANP) in a SWOT analysis - A case study for a textile firm

Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis does not provide an analytical means to determine the importance of the identified factors or the ability to assess decision alternatives according to these factors. Although the analysis successfully pinpoints the factors, individual factors are usually described briefly and very generally. For this reason, SWOT analysis possesses deficiencies in the measurement and evaluation steps. Although the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) technique removes these deficiencies, it does not allow for measurement of the possible dependencies among the factors. The AHP method assumes that the factors presented in the hierarchical structure are independent; however, this assumption may be inappropriate in light of certain internal and external environmental effects. Therefore, it is necessary to employ a form of SWOT analysis that measures and takes into account the possible dependency among the factors. This paper demonstrates a process for quantitative SWOT analysis that can be performed even when there is dependence among strategic factors. The proposed algorithm uses the analytic network process (ANP), which allows measurement of the dependency among the strategic factors, as well as AHP, which is based on the independence between the factors. Dependency among the SWOT factors is observed to effect the strategic and sub-factor weights, as well as to change the strategy priorities.     

A priori ordering protocols to support consensus-building in multiple stakeholder contexts

In a complex social, political, economic, technological, and/or environmental context, corporate, military, government, and other organizations are often faced with collective decision-making situations. The rationale for group decision exercises is that the judgment of many will usually prove superior to the judgment of one. However, it has been shown that collective decision exercises are often highly dependent on matters of perspective, values and opinion, all of which - being essentially subjective in nature - are beyond the reach of existing formal decision technology. Furthermore, it can be expected that many collective decision exercises - particularly those of strategic import - will not lend themselves to the quantitative analysis instruments that have long dominated the management and decision science repertoire. This does not, however, mean that they must remain entirely and forever outside the bounds of scientific rationality. The ordering protocols which are currently available do not have enough technical mechanics to be relied upon to bring us to any satisfying resolution of a priori disputation. Hence, we propose an a priori ordering reference model that might support consensus-building in a multiple stakeholders context. In order to detect whether the subjective arguments are products of proper reasons or merely instances of raw rhetoric and to suggest how any logical or syntactical flaws might best be repaired, we propose logical ordering facilities and protocols for integrating procedural and instrumental provisions for a group-decision process with two lines of technical innovation: the superimpositional ordering function and the logical ordering support facilities.     

An actor-critic algorithm for constrained Markov decision processes

An actor-critic type reinforcement learning algorithm is proposed and analyzed for constrained controlled Markov decision processes. The analysis uses multiscale stochastic approximation theory and the envelope theorem' of mathematical economics.     

A method for the efficient prioritization of infrastructure renewal projects

The infrastructure renewal program at MIT consists of a large number of projects with an estimated budget that could approach $1 billion. Infrastructure renewal at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) is the process of evaluating and investing in the maintenance of facility systems and basic structure to preserve existing campus buildings. The selection and prioritization of projects must be addressed with a systematic method for the optimal allocation of funds and other resources. This paper presents a case study of a prioritization method utilizing multi-attribute utility theory. This method was developed at MIT's Department of Nuclear Engineering and was deployed by the Department of Facilities after appropriate modifications were implemented to address the idiosyncrasies of infrastructure renewal projects and the competing criteria and constraints that influence the judgment of the decision-makers. Such criteria include minimization of risk, optimization of economic impact, and coordination with academic policies, programs, and operations of the Institute. A brief overview of the method is presented, as well as the results of its application to the prioritization of infrastructure renewal projects. Results of workshops held at MIT with the participation of stakeholders demonstrate the feasibility of the prioritization method and the usefulness of this approach.     

一种基于时间分层决策矩阵的综合评价算法

综合评价系统用四元总体（A，Z，X^(k)，D）表示，其中决策矩阵X^(k)是具有对象维i,指标维j,时间维k的三维矩阵，将三维矩阵X（k)按时间划分形成m个二维矩阵，每个二维矩阵分别代表每个年度n个评价对象对应于p个指标的属性集，讨论了按时间分层决策矩阵的多指标综合评价问题，描述了按时间分层的决策矩阵的求解算法，并采用Visual Foxpro数据库语言编程实现。     

Adaptive flexibility and maladaptive routines in selecting fast and frugal decision strategies.

Decision routines unburden the cognitive capacity of the decision maker. In changing environments, however, routines may become maladaptive. In 2 experiments with a hypothetical stock market game (n = 241), the authors tested whether decision routines tend to persist at the level of decision strategies rather than at the level of options in strategy selection. The payoff structure of the task was changed after 80 decision trials, rendering a new strategy optimal with respect to expected payoff. Whereas most participants detected the appropriate strategy at the beginning of the task, they tended to retain it even when it was no longer optimal. A hint about a possible change had only a small influence on this maladaptive routine; a monetary incentive had none. Switching to a similar but not identical task relaxed the routine, but not much. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

后工业时代米兰单功能城区更新

在物化的形式上,解释米兰城市发展历史上的单功能城区的改造意义,并由此分析单功能城区更新的经验:单功能城区向混合居住模式的更新是发展方向;城区的功能重新定义对城区发展有重要意义;以新的建设为基础,发展城区自身的特色,做到城市在更新和特色之间的协调。     

利用模糊评判方法确定张东构造油藏储量计算的可靠程度

张巨河油田张东构造地处大港滩海交接处,海域部分探井少.目前用油藏描述方法计算的探明储量,其落实程度备受关注.储量落实程度的评价是一个多因素综合评判问题,而且这些因素还分属不同层次.模糊综合评判是应用较为广泛的模糊数学方法之一.该方法建立的综合评判涉及三个要素,即因素集、评判集和单因素评判,由此所构造的模糊评判关系是模糊综合评判的基础.本文用该方法对张东构造沙二段油藏的探明储量落实程度作了尝试性评价.     

堆底熔穿事故的场外后果及其对策

在压水堆核电站应急计划和应急响应中，堆底熔穿事故占有重要位置。本文用法国核电厂事故源项Ｓ３（对应于堆底熔穿事故）计算了在典型气象条件下的场外放射学的后果，根据一般防护决策原则和我国颁布的干预水平，提出了保护公众的应急防护措施的建议。     

The Tenet experience and the design of protocols for integrated-services internetworks

The research done by the Tenet Group in multimedia networking has reached a point where it may be useful to reflect on the significance of its results for the current debate on how integrated-services internetworks should be designed. Such reflections constitute the main subject of this paper. The principles of the work and the conclusions reached so far by the Tenet researchers are discussed in the light of the conflict between the two major technologies being proposed to build future information infrastructures: namely, the Internet and the ATM technologies. The Tenet approach suggests one feasible way for resolving the conflict to the advantage of all the users of those infrastructures. This paper discusses various fundamental aspects of integrated-services network design: the choice of the service model, the type of charging policy to be adopted, and the selection of a suitable architecture.