一个几何概率问题的推广

本文利用初等方法将概率论中著名的几何概率问题-Buffon问题进行了较深入的探讨与推广。     

Optimal design of unit hydrographs using probability distribution and genetic algorithms

A nonlinear optimization model is developed to transmute a unit hydrograph into a probability distribution function (PDF). The objective function is to minimize the sum of the square of the deviation between predicted and actual direct runoff hydrograph of a watershed. The predicted runoff hydrograph is estimated by using a PDF. In a unit hydrograph, the depth of rainfall excess must be unity and the ordinates must be positive. Incorporation of a PDF ensures that the depth of rainfall excess for the unit hydrograph is unity, and the ordinates are also positive. Unit hydrograph ordinates are in terms of intensity of rainfall excess on a discharge per unit catchment area basis, the unit area thus representing the unit rainfall excess. The proposed method does not have any constraint. The nonlinear optimization formulation is solved using binary-coded genetic algorithms. The number of variables to be estimated by optimization is the same as the number of probability distribution parameters; gamma and log-normal probability distributions are used. The existing nonlinear programming model for obtaining optimal unit hydrograph has also been solved using genetic algorithms, where the constrained nonlinear optimization problem is converted to an unconstrained problem using penalty parameter approach. The results obtained are compared with those obtained by the earlier LP model and are fairly similar.     

An Analytical Equation of State for Alkaline Earth Metals

In this work, an analytical equation of state based on statistical mechanical perturbation theory, which was initially developed for normal fluids and can be applied to predict the P–V–T data for saturated liquid alkaline earth metals, is presented. The equation of state is that of Ihm, Song, and Mason, and the temperature-dependent parameters of the equation of state are calculated from a corresponding-states correlation as functions of the reduced temperature. Two scaling constants are sufficient for this purpose, the surface tension and the liquid density at the melting point. The equation of state is used to predict the saturated liquid density of molten alkaline earth metals from the melting point up to 2000 K, for which experimental data exist, within an accuracy of 5%.     

絮凝体的物理特性

从絮凝体的密度,空隙率、絮凝体的粒径分布,絮凝体的强度以及絮凝体的分形维数五个方面综述了絮凝体的物理特性及结构特性,分析了影响絮凝体物理特性的因素。     

用功率谱法分析混纺纱混纺比的不匀

本文采用功率谱法估计的方法分析了半熟条、熟条、粗纱、细纱混纺比沿须条轴向的周期性不匀,为方便有效地分析混纺比与工艺的关系奠定了基础.     

改进蚁群优化算法在配电网网架规划中的应用

从转移概率和信息素的动态更新机制两方面对传统蚁群算法进行了改进。转移概率设计中采用2个参数的联动控制,实现了Dorigo和Maniezzo的设想。信息素动态更新机制使信息素权重随迭代次数增加而改变,实现了对整个可行域的搜索全面而迅速,弥补了传统蚁群算法训练效率低下和易陷入局部极小的不足。配电网优化的结果表明该算法的有效性。     

结构状态的马尔科夫链模型及其统计推断

马尔科夫链是结构状态宏观描述和预测中一个可接受的概率模型,但在建立该模型的过程中目前的极大似然法需在较长的时间跨度内采集不同时期的数据,存在数据采集方面的困难。本文为此提出了利用当前数据的最小二乘法,使得通过统计推断建立马尔科夫链模型更为现实可行。     

循环流化床风室的压力脉动特性分析

针对直径为0.205m,高度为7m的冷态高密度循环流化床(CFB)试验台,在表观气速为6.3m/s的条件下,借助小波理论对不同循环流率、不同出口结构的压力脉动特性进行了分析。结果表明:不管是高密度条件下还是低密度条件下的压力脉动,均属于低频脉动,脉动幅度为0~12.5Hz;在相同的出口结构和同一表观气速下,随着循环流率的增加,风室的压力增加,压力脉动的幅度也增加;在同一表观气速和相同循环流率下,Г型突变出口结构的风室压力和压力脉动幅度的增长速率均比C型光滑出口结构的大。     

基于非对称阿基米德Copula的多变量水文干旱联合概率研究

推导了5种常用3维非对称阿基米德Copulas函数的条件Copulas和密度函数,阐述了这类Copulas函数研究水文干旱特性联合分布的应用技术问题。以渭河流域北洛河状头站的径流序列为例,干旱变量的边际分布参数分别采用矩法、概率权重法、极大似然法和遗传算法进行计算和选优,并进行了分布函数拟合度检验。变量相依性的度量表明干旱变量间有较强的相依性;根据AIC,BIC和RMSE准则,M12 Copula拟合效果最优。最后,进行了M12 Copula的拟合度检验,计算了北洛河状头站3维水文干旱变量组合的联合概率、条件概率和相应的重现期。     

混合摩擦滑动轴承的模糊可靠性设计

本文应用模糊数学原理研究了混合摩擦滑动轴承的模糊可靠性设计计算方法,导出了相应的计算公式,并给出了应用实例。