基于随机分析和概率预测的固定式海洋平台结构风险评估研究

对极端海况进行了环境荷载的联合概率分析。引入了整体不确定性和敏感性分析理论,利用非正态过程、具有不同相关性的多变量随机模拟技术,求解结构的失效概率。提出结构失效分析的新方法,并利用DNV提供的历史数据,对结构失效的后果做了适当分析。以埕北12-C井组平台为实例,对平台甲板高程(Air Gap)失效分析进行了实例计算。结果表明,使用多维联合极值分布理论及相应的求解方法,是离岸工程结构物风险评估的重要手段。     

大坝洪水漫顶风险评估

洪水漫顶是导致大坝溃坝的主要原因之一,大坝洪水漫顶风险评估是大坝风险评估的重要组成部分。为此,简要介绍了大坝洪水漫顶的风险模型,并通过实例详细地讨论了模型中各有关参数的不确定性处理方法,探讨了入库洪水的不确定性对洪水漫顶风险率的影响以及按规范设计的大坝的防洪能力问题。     

Lean philosophy: implementation in a forging company

This research addresses the implementation of lean philosophy in a forging company with a focus on radial forging production flow lines. Here, the prime motive is to evolve and test several strategies to eliminate waste on the shop floor. In this research, a systematic approach is suggested for the implementation of lean principles. This paper describes an application of value stream mapping (VSM). Consequently, the present and future states of value stream maps are constructed to improve the production process by identifying waste and its sources. Furthermore, Taguchi’s method of design of experiments is pursued here to minimize the forging defects produced due to imperfect operating conditions. A noticeable reduction in set-up time and work-in-process (WIP) inventory level is substantiated. Finally, we conclude with a discussion of managerial implications and the future scope of research.     

基于DMF捕获系统频率选择性信道下捕获性能的分析

对基于数字匹配滤波器(DMF)捕获系统在频率选择性信道下的捕获性能进行了深入讨论，利用状态转移图推导出单次驻留判决方式时平均捕获时间的表达式，对平均捕获时间与多径分量的关系进行了数字分析。得出的主要结论是：对于多径分量为非衰落信号时，多径分量之间的能量差别越大，系统捕获性能越好，多径分量的能量相等时，系统捕获性能最差，且随着可以分离的多径路数的增加下降；对于多径分量为慢衰落信号时，多径信道的捕获性能好于单径信道(非频率选择性衰落信道)，且多径分量之间的能量差别越大，系统捕获性能越差，当多径分量的能量相等时，捕获性能最好，这与非衰落信道的情形相反。因此在频率选择性衰落信道中，采用分集接收可以改善系统的捕获性能。     

一种基于知识地图集的知识管理系统模型框架

在分析知识管理、知识管理系统(KMS)的含义和知识地图集技术的特点的基础上，提出了一种基于知识地图集的KMS模型框架，并且分析了该模型框架中知识地图集的组成及功能，讨论了KMS中知识地图集和知识存储之间的关系。依据该模型框架，组织易于构建知识管理系统，实现知识资源的共享与充分运用。最后，通过一个实例分析进一步说明了该模型框架的应用。     

Uncertainty,belief, and probability1

We introduce a new probabilistic approach to dealing with uncertainty, based on the observation that probability theory does not require that every event be assigned a probability. For a nonmeasurable event (one to which we do not assign a probability), we can talk about only the inner measure and outer measure of the event. In addition to removing the requirement that every event be assigned a probability, our approach circumvents other criticisms of probability-based approaches to uncertainty. For example, the measure of belief in an event turns out to be represented by an interval (defined by the inner and outer measures), rather than by a single number. Further, this approach allows us to assign a belief (inner measure) to an event E without committing to a belief about its negation -E (since the inner measure of an event plus the inner measure of its negation is not necessarily one). Interestingly enough, inner measures induced by probability measures turn out to correspond in a precise sense to Dempster-Shafer belief functions. Hence, in addition to providing promising new conceptual tools for dealing with uncertainty, our approach shows that a key part of the important Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is firmly rooted in classical probability theory. Cet article présente une nouvelle approche probabiliste en ce qui concerne le traitement de l'incertitude; celle-ci est basée sur l'observation que la théorie des probabilityés n'exige pas qu'une probabilityé soit assignée à chaque événement. Dans le cas d'un événement non mesurable (un événement pour lequel on n'assigne aucune probabilityé), nous ne pouvons discuter que de la mesure intérieure et de la mesure extérieure de l'évenément. En plus d'éliminer la nécessité d'assigner une probabilityéà l'événement, cette nouvelle approche apporte une réponse aux autres critiques des approches à l'incertitude basées sur des probabilityés. Par exemple, la mesure de croyance dans un événement est représentée par un intervalle (défini par la mesure intérieure et extérieure) plutǒt que par un nombre unique. De plus, cette approche nous permet d'assigner une croyance (mesure intérieure) à un événement E sans se compromettre vers une croyance à propos de sa négation -E (puisque la mesure intérieure d'un événement et la mesure intérieure de sa négation ne sont pas nécessairement une seule et unique mesure). II est intéressant de noter que les mesures intérieures qui résultent des mesures de probabilityé correspondent d'une manière précise aux fonctions de croyance de Dempster-Shafer. En plus de constituer un nouvel outil conceptuel prometteur dans le traitement de l'incertitude, cette approche démontre qu'une partie importante de la théorie de l'évidence de Dempster-Shafer est fermement ancrée dans la theorie classique des probabilityés.     

用作图法测定R50的理论分析

研究了步、机枪射击密集度试验中弹着点半经的顺序统计量，给出了作图法测定Ｒ_（５０）的理论分析，得到了作图法是测定Ｒ_（５０）的好方法的结论．     

The Continuous Interpolating Self-organizing Map

The self-organizing map (SOM) [5] provides a general data approximation method which is suitable for several application domains. The topology preservation is an important feature in data-analysis and may also be advantageous for the evaluation of the data in a function approximation or regression task. For this reason the interpolated self-organizing map (I-SOM) adds an output layer to the SOM architecture which computes a real valued output vector. This paper presents an extension of I-SOM towards a continuous interpolation. It is compared to RBF and to the parametrized self-organizing map.     

Generalization of the Gram-Charlier/Edgeworth Series and Application to Time-Frequency Analysis

We derive a general equation relating probability densities and as special cases we the obtain Gram-Charlier and Edgeworth series. This allows us to generalize these methods and clarify a number of issues pertaining to both probability theory and time-frequency analysis. In particular we show how the Gram-Charlier and Edgeworth series are related to the kernel method of time-frequency analysis. The approach allows us to construct densities that satisfy given constraints such as joint moments or conditional moments. Also, we show that the kernel has to be signal dependent and that to obtain a proper distribution it should be the ratio of two characteristic functions.     

Disparity field and depth map coding for multiview 3D image generation

In the present paper techniques are examined for the coding of the depth map and disparity fields for stereo or multiview image communication applications. It is assumed that both the left and right channels of the multiview image sequence are coded using block- or object-based methods. A dynamic programming algorithm is used to estimate a disparity field between each stereo image pair. Depth is then estimated and occlusions are optionally detected, based on the estimated disparity fields. Spatial interpolation techniques are examined based on the disparity/depth information and the detection of occluded regions using either stereoscopic or trinocular camera configurations. It is seen that the presence of a third camera at the transmitter site improves the estimation of disparities, the detection of occlusions and the accuracy of the resulting spatial interpolation at the receiver. Various disparity field and depth map coding techniques are then proposed and evaluated, with emphasis given to the quality of the resulting intermediate images at the receiver site. Block-based and wireframe modeling techniques are examined for the coding of isolated depth or disparity map information. Further, 2D and 3D motion compensation techniques are evaluated for the coding of sequences of depth or disparity maps. The motion fields needed may be available as a byproduct of block-based or object-based coding of the intensity images. Experimental results are given for the evaluation of the performance of the proposed coding and spatial interpolation methods.