Information systems and uncertainty: a conspiracy of misplaced confidence

Abstract. Information technology is becoming an increasingly important factor in contemporary management. Information systems are being set up in business explicitly to accommodate the new opportunities of this technology, and these are having a lasting effect on managerial practice. The full implications of this technology-driven development have not been appreciated by organizations, which in absorbing technological systems, are tolerating a great drain on their resources.
The efficacy of computers is predicated on the acceptance of some very specific perspectives. A growing discontent and disappointment with their limited achievements is our reason for advocating a different point of view. We will discuss how a shift in perspective, particularly in respect to the perception of uncertainty, will affect thinking and practice in the field of management support systems. We will render our view of the application of computerized decision support systems (DSS), and especially, we will focus on the beliefs and assumptions that have shaped this technology thus far. To this end we will discuss the concept of uncertainty, by juxtaposing current thinking and practice with our understanding of the context of its application. Finally, we will place our understanding of uncertainty in a managerial context and explain the implications this would have for strategists.     

Learning to Perceive and Act by Trial and Error

This article considers adaptive control architectures that integrate active sensory-motor systems with decision systems based on reinforcement learning. One unavoidable consequence of active perception is that the agent's internal representation often confounds external world states. We call this phoenomenon perceptual aliasingand show that it destabilizes existing reinforcement learning algorithms with respect to the optimal decision policy. We then describe a new decision system that overcomes these difficulties for a restricted class of decision problems. The system incorporates a perceptual subcycle within the overall decision cycle and uses a modified learning algorithm to suppress the effects of perceptual aliasing. The result is a control architecture that learns not only how to solve a task but also where to focus its visual attention in order to collect necessary sensory information.     

用于实时数据传输的滑动帧方法及其实现

根据某雷达系统对测量信号的快速传输要求,提出采用滑动帧的处理方法并在FPGA中实现,克服了传统帧处理难以满足快速传输要求的不足。阐述了滑动帧结构的构造思想,详述了滑动帧结构的特点及具体功能模块的实现。根据实际应用需求构造了滑动帧结构处理器,试验和应用结果表明设计可行有效,能充分满足实时数据传输的要求。     

HACCP体系用于给水处理厂浊度控制的研究

介绍了危害分析和关键控制点（HACCP）体系的基本原理及其在城市给水系统中的应用进展，并以我国南方某城市的给水处理厂为例，对HACCP体系用于水厂浊度控制开展了探索性研究。应用故障树分析技术识别了水厂中可能导致浊度超标的潜在危害，应用决策树分析技术确定了水厂浊度控制的关键控制点，建立了关键控制点和质量控制点的关键限值、监控系统以及纠偏措施，并分析了对验证程序以及文件和记录保存系统的要求。     

计算机远程控制系统的设计与实现

介绍了一个计算机远程控制系统的设计与实现，该系统采用客户机／服务器模式，实现远程屏幕的实时传输，采用LZW压缩算法对图像进行压缩传输，在接受方进行解码并且实现了远程文件创建和删除、显示被控制端的主机信息、发送实时消息等功能。采用鼠标，键盘的模拟方式对计算机进行实时控制。     

Controlled linear system with delayed relay output under impulse random disturbances

The paper is devoted to the first order delayed linear system with relay output controlled by the proportional-integral (PI) regulator. The deterministic system exhibits stable oscillations, and, since the system itself is stable, it can be suitable to switch off the controller if there are no disturbances during a long time interval. In the present work, the random disturbances are modelled by a Poisson stream of impulses, and the goal is to determine the instants of switching on (off) of the PI controller. After several assumptions and quantization of the time axis, we construct the new optimal control problem which is successfully solved with the help of the dynamic programming approach.     

Age Differences in Everyday Problem-Solving and Decision-Making Effectiveness: A Meta-Analytic Review.

The authors report a meta-analysis of age differences in everyday problem-solving/decision-making effectiveness (EPSE). Effect sizes were calculated to reflect 3 age group comparisons: old versus young, young versus middle-aged, and middle-aged versus old. Findings from the meta-analysis of 28 separate studies with an aggregate of 4,482 participants do not support theories of preserved EPSE in late adulthood. Although significant age differences of moderate magnitude persisted across methodological and theoretical domains, rating criteria (experimenter vs. participant) emerged as a significant moderator of the effect magnitude and direction. In addition, EPSE in older adults was bolstered when problem content was interpersonal and when samples were highly educated. Finally, the current results support the conceptual integration of findings from the everyday problem-solving and everyday decision-making literatures. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

What does the object decision task measure? Reflections on the basis of evidence from semantic dementia.

The authors investigated the impact of semantic knowledge on visual object analysis by assessing the performance of patients with semantic dementia on a different-views object matching test and on 2 object decision tests differing, for example, in whether the nonreal items were nonsense objects or chimeras of 2 real objects. On average, the patients scored normally on both the object matching and the object decision test including nonsense objects but were impaired on the object decision test including chimeras; this latter was also the only visual object test that correlated significantly with degree of semantic impairment. These findings demonstrate that object decision is not a single task or ability and that it is not necessarily independent of conceptual knowledge. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Development of a fuzzy decision model for manufacturability evaluation

A manufacturability evaluation decision model is formulated and analyzed based on fuzzy logic and multiple attribute decision-making under the concurrent engineering environment. The study emphasizes on the treatment of the linguistic and vagueness at the early product development stage. The study also considers the function integration of the total life cycle of a product. Hence, the integrated decision model covers the multi-level, multi-goal requirements of the products. Multiple criteria such as the goal space, the decision space, the function space, the development (i.e., product & process design) space, and the activity space, are then applied under different analysis of decision-making methods. For instances, the fuzzy multiple attribute decision-making (FMADM) combined with activity-based costing (ABC) can be used in the activity decision space. The fuzzy logic decision model can be applied in the goal decision space. The results of this study point out the importance of early decision making capability. An example of a high-pressure vessel is provided to demonstrate the proposed model for evaluating the manufacturability.     

一种具有弹性服务质量要求的多业务最优接纳控制策略

随着无线网络所支持的业务种类的增加和具有弹性服务质量要求的业务的大量出现，与服务质量保证密切相关的呼叫接纳控制问题成了近年来无线网络研究的热点之一。本文研究了基于准马尔可夫决策过程方法的多业务最优呼叫接纳控制问题。根据业务的特点，首先引入了带宽分配满意度函数和收益率函数，在此基础上，提出了基于带宽分配满意度的最优带宽分配算法和基于准马尔可夫决策过程方法的最优呼叫接纳控制策略。计算结果表明，本文方案能够在对各类业务的呼叫阻塞率进行适当权衡的前提下，进一步提高网络的期望收益率和期望带宽利用率，同时满足了各类业务的最低服务质量要求。