Uncertainty,belief, and probability1

We introduce a new probabilistic approach to dealing with uncertainty, based on the observation that probability theory does not require that every event be assigned a probability. For a nonmeasurable event (one to which we do not assign a probability), we can talk about only the inner measure and outer measure of the event. In addition to removing the requirement that every event be assigned a probability, our approach circumvents other criticisms of probability-based approaches to uncertainty. For example, the measure of belief in an event turns out to be represented by an interval (defined by the inner and outer measures), rather than by a single number. Further, this approach allows us to assign a belief (inner measure) to an event E without committing to a belief about its negation -E (since the inner measure of an event plus the inner measure of its negation is not necessarily one). Interestingly enough, inner measures induced by probability measures turn out to correspond in a precise sense to Dempster-Shafer belief functions. Hence, in addition to providing promising new conceptual tools for dealing with uncertainty, our approach shows that a key part of the important Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is firmly rooted in classical probability theory. Cet article présente une nouvelle approche probabiliste en ce qui concerne le traitement de l'incertitude; celle-ci est basée sur l'observation que la théorie des probabilityés n'exige pas qu'une probabilityé soit assignée à chaque événement. Dans le cas d'un événement non mesurable (un événement pour lequel on n'assigne aucune probabilityé), nous ne pouvons discuter que de la mesure intérieure et de la mesure extérieure de l'évenément. En plus d'éliminer la nécessité d'assigner une probabilityéà l'événement, cette nouvelle approche apporte une réponse aux autres critiques des approches à l'incertitude basées sur des probabilityés. Par exemple, la mesure de croyance dans un événement est représentée par un intervalle (défini par la mesure intérieure et extérieure) plutǒt que par un nombre unique. De plus, cette approche nous permet d'assigner une croyance (mesure intérieure) à un événement E sans se compromettre vers une croyance à propos de sa négation -E (puisque la mesure intérieure d'un événement et la mesure intérieure de sa négation ne sont pas nécessairement une seule et unique mesure). II est intéressant de noter que les mesures intérieures qui résultent des mesures de probabilityé correspondent d'une manière précise aux fonctions de croyance de Dempster-Shafer. En plus de constituer un nouvel outil conceptuel prometteur dans le traitement de l'incertitude, cette approche démontre qu'une partie importante de la théorie de l'évidence de Dempster-Shafer est fermement ancrée dans la theorie classique des probabilityés.     

《周培德三角剖分不是最小权三角剖分》一文商榷——反例不成立

周培协三角剖分是否能得到最小权三角剖分，周培德在《周培德三角部分不是最小权三角剖分》一文撰写之前已有新的结论，本文还指出《周培德三角剖分不是最小权三角剖分》一文所举反例不成立。     

On the ontological expressiveness of information systems analysis and design grammars

Abstract. Information systems analysis and design (ISAD) methodologies provide facilities for describing existing or conceived real-world systems. These facilities are ontologically expressive if they are capable of describing all real-world phenomena completely and clearly. In this paper we formally examine the notion of the ontological expressiveness of a grammar and discuss some of its implications for the design and use of ISAD methodologies. We identify some generic ways in which ontological expressiveness may be undermined in a grammar and some potential consequences of these violations. We also examine ontological expressiveness within the context of some other desirable features that might be considered in the design of ISAD methodologies.     

Comparison of Displacement and Mixing Diffusers

In order to cumpare the peformance of different supply diffuers of ventilation air, the airflow passern, temperature stratifiation and contaminant dispersion in a furnitured office ventilated by three kinds of air diffuer were numerically investigated. The air diffuers studied in this paper are a quarter-cylinder displacement diffuer on the floor and mixing diffuers (linear and vortex diffuers) on the ceiling. The heat sources in the of-fice are considered to be 50% convective and 50% radiative. The k-? two-equatwn model of turbulence is employed to predict the turbulent diffusion. The results show that the displacement diffuser provides a rather uniform flow field with low velocify in most areas, and the vertical temperature difference from floor to ceiling is as high as 6 K. With the linear diffuser, the air velociry is high, and the temperature is uniform both horizontally and vertically. The air velocity generated by the vortex diffuser is moderate. The distributions of the temperature and the contaminant are rather uniform.     

先进电子化政府基本模式及实现

电子化政府是运用信息技术创新政府服务的整合概念。建构电子政府已经成为世界范围内政府再造的新趋势。这里讨论了电子化政府基本模式及规划的内容和特点,并具体提出实现的模式、技术路径及方法。     

A hybrid extended finite element/level set method for modeling phase transformations

A hybrid numerical method for modelling the evolution of sharp phase interfaces on fixed grids is presented. We focus attention on two‐dimensional solidification problems, where the temperature field evolves according to classical heat conduction in two subdomains separated by a moving freezing front. The enrichment strategies of the eXtended Finite Element Method (X‐FEM) are employed to represent the jump in the temperature gradient that governs the velocity of the phase boundary. A new approach with the X‐FEM is suggested for this class of problems whereby the partition of unity is constructed with C¹(Ω) polynomials and enriched with a C⁰(Ω) function. This approach leads to jumps in temperature gradient occurring only at the phase boundary, and is shown to significantly improve estimates for the front velocity. Temporal derivatives of the temperature field in the vicinity of the phase front are obtained with a projection that employs discontinuous enrichment. In conjunction with a finer finite difference grid, the Level Set method is used to represent the evolution of the phase interface. An iterative procedure is adopted to satisfy the constraints on the temperature field on the phase boundary. The robustness and utility of the method is demonstrated with several benchmark problems of phase transformation. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The time course of plausibility effects on eye movements in reading: Evidence from noun-noun compounds.

Readers' eye movements were monitored as they read sentences containing noun-noun compounds that varied in frequency (e.g., elevator mechanic, mountain lion). The left constituent of the compound was either plausible or implausible as a head noun at the point at which it appeared, whereas the compound as a whole was always plausible. When the head noun analysis of the left constituent was implausible, reading times on this word were inflated, beginning with the first fixation. This finding is consistent with previous demonstrations of very rapid effects of plausibility on eye movements. Compound frequency did not modulate the plausibility effect, and all disruption was resolved by the time readers' eyes moved to the next word. These findings suggest (contra Kennison, 2005) that the parser initially analyzes a singular noun as a head instead of a modifier. In addition, the findings confirm that the very rapid effect of plausibility on eye movements is not due to strategic factors, because in the present experiment, unlike in previous demonstrations, this effect appeared in sentences that were globally plausible. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Effect of the Treatment Temperature on the Surface Drying Set of Sugi Boxed-Heart Square Timber

High-temperature and controlled humidity treatment before drying has proven to be highly effective in preventing surface checks by forming drying sets in the surface layer of boxed-heart square timber in Japan. In this study, we examined the differences of the surface drying sets on sugi timber under different treatment temperatures. As a result, the width of a surface check after drying was much smaller at a treatment temperature of 120°C than at 80°C, and this indicates that the drying set with 120°C treatment would be larger than that with 80°C treatment. Also we observed that treatment temperature had a greater effect on the drying set as the drying advanced.     

Analytic methods for modeling longitudinal data from rolling therapy groups with membership turnover.

Interventions for a variety of emotional and behavioral problems are commonly delivered in the context of treatment groups, with many using rolling admission to sustain membership (i.e., admission, dropout, and discharge from group are perpetual and ongoing). The authors present an overview of the analytic challenges inherent in rolling group data and outline commonly used (but flawed) analytic and design approaches to addressing (or sidestepping) these issues. Moreover, the authors propose use of latent class pattern mixture models (LCPMMs) as a statistically and conceptually defensible approach for modeling treatment data from rolling groups. The LCPMM approach is illustrated with rolling group data from a group-based alcoholism pilot treatment trial (N = 128). Different inferences were made with regard to treatment efficacy under LCPMM vs. the commonly used standard group-clustered latent growth model (LGM); coupled with other preliminary findings in this area, inferences from LGMs may be overly liberal when applied to data from rolling groups. Continued work on data analytic difficulties in groups with membership turnover is critical for furthering the ecological validity of research on behavioral treatments. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Working memory in mild Alzheimer's disease and early Parkinson's disease.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) and Parkinson's disease (PD) impair working memory (WM). It is unclear, however, whether the deficits seen early in the course of these diseases are similar. To address this issue, the authors compared the performance of 22 patients with mild AD, 20 patients with early PD and without dementia, and 112 control participants on tests of inhibition, short-term memory, and 2 commonly administered tests of WM. The results suggest that although mild AD and early PD both impair WM, the deficits may be related to the interruption of different processes that contribute to WM performance. Early PD disrupted inhibitory processes, whereas mild AD did not. The WM deficits seen in patients with AD may be secondary to deficits in other cognitive capacities, including semantic memory. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)