Assessing the role of basic control measures, antivirals and vaccine in curtailing pandemic influenza: scenarios for the US, UK and the Netherlands

An increasing number of avian flu cases in humans, arising primarily from direct contact with poultry, in several regions of the world have prompted the urgency to develop pandemic preparedness plans worldwide. Leading recommendations in these plans include basic public health control measures for minimizing transmission in hospitals and communities, the use of antiviral drugs and vaccination. This paper presents a mathematical model for the evaluation of the pandemic flu preparedness plans of the United States (US), the United Kingdom (UK) and the Netherlands. The model is used to assess single and combined interventions. Using data from the US, we show that hospital and community transmission control measures alone can be highly effective in reducing the impact of a potential flu pandemic. We further show that while the use of antivirals alone could lead to very significant reductions in the burden of a pandemic, the combination of transmission control measures, antivirals and vaccine gives the most 'optimal' result. However, implementing such an optimal strategy at the onset of a pandemic may not be realistic. Thus, it is important to consider other plausible alternatives. An optimal preparedness plan is largely dependent on the availability of resources; hence, it is country-specific. We show that countries with limited antiviral stockpiles should emphasize their use therapeutically (rather than prophylactically). However, countries with large antiviral stockpiles can achieve greater reductions in disease burden by implementing them both prophylactically and therapeutically. This study promotes alternative strategies that may be feasible and attainable for the US, UK and the Netherlands. It emphasizes the role of hospital and community transmission control measures in addition to the timely administration of antiviral treatment in reducing the burden of a flu pandemic. The latter is consistent with the preparedness plans of the UK and the Netherlands. Our results indicate that for low efficacy and coverage levels of antivirals and vaccine, the use of a vaccine leads to the greatest reduction in morbidity and mortality compared with the singular use of antivirals. However, as these efficacy and coverage levels are increased, the use of antivirals is more effective.     

利用手机模块实现无线公话的方法研究

本文论述了无线公话技术的实现原理，详细介绍了利用MCS8051系列单片机控制手机模块实现无线公话的方法，并给出了该类设备硬件各模块的功能描述以及关键部分软件的实现方法。     

一种基于混沌的随机数发生器设计及其IC实现

在密码学、仿真学以及集成电路测试等许多领域 ,随机数起着重要的作用。在密码学中 ,通常要求所使用的随机数具有不可预测性。基于混沌现象 ,使用开关电容技术 ,用集成电路实现了一种硬件随机数发生器。测试结果表明 ,其产生的序列具有不可预测性 ,可以满足密码学的应用要求。     

开发有线电视收费管理系统需注意的问题

分析有线电视业务及用户管理中出现的问题与解决办法，为系统的开发建立数据模型，以确保有线电视网络公司和用户的利益。     

TPS/TDC3000系统串口通讯的规划与应用

针对TPS/TDC30 0 0系统串口通讯方式、机理进行了一般性的介绍 ,对规划与应用中常见的的问题 ,根据实际工程应用经验提出了解决方案。     

一种快速CRC 算法①的硬件实现方法

介绍了CRC校验算法的硬件电路实现方法。CRC校验广泛应用于通信、存储系统，在串行CRC实现的基础上，对电路结构提出了改进的方案，并实现了CRC的并行计算，由此进一步可以适用于任意位数据宽度的数据输入情况。     

汽油辛烷值智能调合系统

采取一种能够在线学习、不断提高、建立一系列模型的策略，提出了一种具有学习功能的汽油辛烷值智能调合系统。该系统可以根据成品汽油辛烷值指标、生产成本和市场价格等因素提供一个较好的油品调合调度方案。实际应用结果表明，利用参数学习的方法计算调合汽油辛烷值是可行的。     

XC型车号自动识别系统在轨道衡的应用

介绍了XC型车号自动识别系统的工作原理及在轨道衡的应用,解决了长期以来轨道衡路用车车号和自重依靠人工抄录易出错及劳动强度大的问题。     

An IR study on ion-specific and solvent-specific swelling of poly(N-vinyl-2-pyrrolidone) gel

Swelling degrees of poly(N-vinyl-2-pyrrolidone) (PVP) gel were measured in aqueous salt solutions and in water/organic solvent mixtures to find marked ion- and solvent-specificities. In order to investigate any correlation of those specificities with hydration or solvation of PVP, IR spectra band of the CO group was monitored by means of ATR method both for PVP gel and the relevant solution systems. Dependence of the peak frequency on the swelling ratio suggested that hydration of PVP carbonyl group in deswollen gel systems is different from that in the corresponding solution systems. In the solution systems, PVP carbonyl band showed a high-wavenumber shift for deswollen systems, which can be well correlated with changes in water proton charge through ionic hydration and with Gutmann's acceptor number of organic solvents. In the deswollen gel systems, the CO band showed a low-wavenumber shift, suggesting a strong hydration or doubly hydrated state. This unexpected behavior was interpreted by assuming an intermolecular hydrogen bond of two carbonyl groups intermediated by water molecules.     

车号定位识别与可信度估计

以车号的定位与识别为例，应用行投影法对车号图片进行倾斜行定位，证明了模拟与场景的二维互相关系数近拟等于一维投影互相关系数，在此基础上提列投影法快速行扫描识别算法及相应的可信度估计方法，这种方法对于室外拍摄的有复杂背景，光照变化，字体微倾，字符排列疏密不均及噪声干扰的车牌图像具有很好的识别效果。