Models for solar radiation prediction based on different measurement sites

The modeling of solar radiation for forecasting its availability is a key tool for managing photovoltaic (PV) plants and, hence, is of primary importance for energy production in a smart grid scenario. However, the variability of the weather phenomena is an unavoidable obstacle in the prediction of the energy produced by the solar radiation conversion. The use of the data collected in the past can be useful to capture the daily and seasonal variability, while measurement of the recent past can be exploited to provide a short term prediction. It is well known that a good measurement of the solar radiation requires not only a high class radiometer, but also a correct management of the instrument. In order to reduce the cost related to the management of the monitoring apparatus, a solution could be to evaluate the PV plant performance using data collected by public weather station installed near the plant. In this paper, two experiments are conducted. In the first, the plausibility of the short term prediction of the solar radiation, based on data collected in the near past on the same site is investigated. In the second experiment, the same prediction is operated using data collected by a public weather station located at ten kilometers from the solar plant. Several prediction techniques belonging from both computational intelligence and statistical fields have been challenged in this task. In particular, Support Vector Machine for Regression, Extreme Learning Machine and Autoregressive models have been used and compared with the persistence and the k-NN predictors. The prediction accuracy achieved in the two experimental conditions are then compared and the results are discussed.     

Flow pattern identification and measurement techniques in gas-liquid-liquid three-phase flow: A review

The simultaneous flow of gas, oil, and water forms various flow patterns due to the complex interfacial relationships. Three-phase flow patterns are classified as the gas-liquid and liquid-liquid flow patterns. Pressure drop, void fraction, liquid holdup, and phase distribution are important characteristics of the three-phase flow. These characteristics are generally associated with the three-phase flow patterns. Hence, the knowledge about flow patterns can help to predict the overall behavior of the three-phase flow. Studies have been conducted to identify three-phase flow pattern and their characteristics at various superficial velocities of gas, oil, and water. The major purpose of the studies is to gather information about the three-phase co-current flow and use it for improvement of the efficiency of the flow systems. Therefore, the accuracy of the measurement technique is critical. Several types of flow pattern identification and measurement techniques have been developed to improve accuracy and provide high-quality results. In this article, classical and advanced techniques used for the three-phase flow identification and measurement have been reviewed. The survey will help the researchers working in the area of multiphase flow to choose the right technique based on the objectives of the studies.     

Study on wax precipitation characteristics of wax deposit in pipes

Wax deposit properties are a significant concern in pipeline pigging during waxy crude oil transportation. In the present work, the impacts of flow conditions and oil properties on the wax precipitation characteristics of wax deposits are investigated. A flow loop apparatus was developed to conduct wax deposition experiments using four crude oils collected from different field pipes. The differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) technique was employed to observe the wax precipitation characteristics of crude oil and wax deposit. The results show that the wax content and the wax appearance temperature (WAT) of the deposits increase with shear stress and radial temperature gradient, and decrease with radial wax molecule concentration gradient near the pipe wall. The DSC tests on the wax deposits revealed that the deposit wax content is strongly correlated to the oil wax content. Furthermore, an empirical correlation was developed to predict the wax content and the WAT of the wax deposit. Verification of the empirical correlation using the different oils indicated that the average relative error of the wax content prediction and average absolute error of WAT prediction were 13.2% and 3.6°C, respectively.     

管式段塞流捕集器构造及其优化设计

天然气近年来由于技术的进步及其自身多项优势而被广泛利用,油气混输作为一种经济性良好的运输方式也开始服务于各大油气田。然而多相流的运动很复杂,加上一些其他因素而产生的段塞流则是危害较大,其主要危害体现在各项参数不稳,混输管路下游的处理设备会受到较大冲击,因此需要在混输管路末端设置段塞流捕集器来缓解这种冲击,保证下游的稳定供给。     

Process and joint quality of ultrasonic vibration enhanced friction stir lap welding

In order to improve the process effectiveness and joint quality, ultrasonic vibrations were integrated with friction stir lap welding. Effect of ultrasonic exertion on the process and joint quality of AA 6061-T6 were investigated. Upon ultrasonic exertion, joints owned larger effective lap width, shorter hooks and improved strength. Weld fracture mode changed from a ductile–brittle mixed mode to a more ductile mode while the fracture path shifted from lap interface to beyond the stir zone. Material flow and interface defects were characterised using lap welded dissimilar aluminium alloy joints. Ultrasonic vibration improved the material flow and reduced the interfacial defects. Variations in failure load of joints were found in accordance with the variations in material flow and interfacial defects.     

Improving weld formability by a novel dual-rotation bobbin tool friction stir welding

A novel dual-rotation bobbin tool friction stir welding (DBT-FSW) was developed, in which the upper shoulder (US) and lower shoulder (LS) have different rotational speeds. This process was tried to weld 3.2 mm thick aluminum-lithium alloy sheets. The metallographic analysis and torque measurement were carried out to characterize the weld formability. Experimental results show that compared to conventional bobbin tool friction stir welding, the DBT-FSW has an excellent process stability, and can produce the defect-free joints in a wider range of welding parameters. These can be attributed to the significant improvement of material flow caused by the formation of a staggered layer structure and the unbalanced force between the US and LS during the DBT-FSW process.     

基于聚类的数据加权优化在犯罪预测中的应用

近年来，我国传统暴力犯罪与成年人犯罪呈下降态势，但是，犯罪案由层出不穷。为有效提升公安实践工作中犯罪预测能力，打击各类违法犯罪事件,本文针对犯罪数据，提出一种新型犯罪预测模型。利用密度聚类分析方法将犯罪数据分类，然后进行数据降维提取关键属性生成特征数据，继而对特征数据进行加权优化并采用机器学习的方式对特征数据进行学习，从而预测犯罪案由。实验结果表明，与传统方法相比，本文方法具有更好的预测效果，为公安实践工作中类似案件的侦破和预防，提供新的路径支撑。     

Critical state model for structured soil

Structure is an evident determinant for macroscopic behaviors of soils. However, this is not taken into account in most constitutive models, as structure is a rather complex issue in models. For this, it is important to develop and implement simple models that can reflect this important aspect of soil behavior. This paper tried to model structured soils based on well-established concepts, such as critical state and sub-loading. Critical state is the core of the classic Cam Clay model. The sub-loading concept implies adoption of an inner (sub-loading) yield surface, according to specific hardening rules for some internal strain-like state variables. Nakai and co-workers proposed such internal variables for controlling density (ρ) and structure (ω), using a modified stress space, called t_ij. Herein, similar variables are used in the context of the better-known invariants (p and q) of the Cam Clay model. This change requires explicit adoption of a non-associated flow rule for the sub-loading surface. This is accomplished by modifying the dilatancy ratio of the Cam Clay model, as a function of the new internal variables. These modifications are described and implemented under three-dimensional (3D) conditions. The model is then applied to simulating laboratory tests under different stress paths and the results are compared to experiments reported for different types of structured soils. The good agreements show the capacity and potential of the proposed model.