基于CVaR的风电机组日前申报出力优化模型研究

在我国,风电机组需提前一天提交次日24小时的申报出力信息,由于来风具有明显的不确定性和随机性特征,风电机组次日实际出力与日前申报出力会存在一定的偏差。为解决以上问题,首先采用K-means聚类法对风电机组实际出力数据进行聚类,并生成样本集;其次,基于风电不确定性样本集构建风险中性风电机组日前申报出力决策优化模型;再次,构建基于条件风险值（CVaR）的日前申报出力优化模型;最后,基于实际数据进行了算例分析。算例分析结果表明,基于CVaR的日前申报出力决策优化模型能有效减少风电机组日前申报出力与次日实际出力的偏差,且使风电机组获得风险价值更好的申报出力,从而实现申报利润的风险可控性。     

断层破裂过程对减隔震桥梁地震反应的影响

为了研究断层破裂过程对减隔震桥梁地震反应的影响,提出利用相位特性模拟方向性效应的改进随机格林函数法. 以1994年美国北岭地震的断层条件为例,通过与实际地震记录对比验证模拟方法的有效性;应用改进的随机格林函数法模拟相同震中距离的4组地震动时程作为输入条件,比较断层破裂过程对相同震中距离、不同方位的减隔震桥梁地震反应影响. 结果表明,利用持时包络曲线与相位差分分布的相似性可以方便模拟随机格林函数的地震动加速度时程;在相同震中距离条件下,断层破裂方向的观测点地震动以及对应位置的桥梁结构地震反应明显大于非破裂方向位置的观测点;当破裂方向上地震动时程不具有脉冲特性时,断层周围的减隔震桥梁地震反应主要受地震动强度的影响,桥梁方位的影响不明显.     

参激随机共振及纠错码技术的应用

为了有效地降低数字信号传输过程中的比特误码率,提出了纠错编码与参数调节随机共振技术的结合.在经过噪声污染后,依据参数调节随机共振技术的性质,给出通过系统参数调节的二进制脉冲幅值调制（PAM）输入信号的渐近误码率公式,应用纠错码技术采用中间值估计的方法得到修正的比特误码率.数字仿真试验证实,理论计算结果与试验结果相吻合,纠错码技术与参激随机共振技术的结合应用于二进制基带信号传输,可以降低误码率,从而可以得到更好的效果,提高通信的可靠性和有效性.     

考虑调峰辅助服务的虚拟电厂运营模式

针对虚拟电厂(VPP)内部风光资源的不确定性给其参与调峰市场带来影响的问题,对以VPP为主体参与调峰市场开展研究.采取VPP同时参与直接电力交易市场与调峰市场的运营模式,计及风光出力不确定性的影响,提出基于条件风险价值理论的VPP日前优化运行模型;利用Shapley值法对各成员联合运行后取得的期望成本进行合理分配.算例仿真验证了所提运行策略的有效性与合理性.     

两种新型误差积分模糊控制器设计及其在舰炮随动控制中的应用

本文设计了基于误差积分调整控制规则的模糊控制器和带误差积分前馈的模糊控制器，只要控制规则和参数选择恰当，就能消除系统的稳态误差，实验结果表明这两种控制器确能改善系统的静态性能。     

Numerical simulation of microstructure formation ofAZ91 using mCA method

A stochastic model for simulating the microstructure formation of Mg alloy AZ91 during solidification was developed based on the finite element method（FEM） for macroscopic model of heat transfer calculation and a modified Cellular Automaton （mCA） for microscopic modeling of nucleation, growth of crystal. In this model, the effect of solute redistribution, interface curvature and preferred orientation was considered. A numerical simulation was developed with C＋＋ program language. The computation was carded out to understand the effect of varying processing parameters, such as nucleation parameters and heat transfer coefficient, on the microstructure formation of AZ91. The result of simulation was displayed on screen.     

钨极氩弧焊逆变电源系统PI控制的Simulink仿真整定

钨极氩弧焊(GTAW)逆变电源系统是典型的大信号非线性系统，很难用线性化小信号的解析方法进行近似估计，作者利用Matlab中具有建模、分析和仿真等多功能的Simulink工具包，根据逆变电源的控制结构及GTAW电弧负载的特点，建立了由PI调节的GTAW逆变电源-电弧闭环系统的模型，在此基础上，进行了Simulink仿真研究，并进行了PI参数的调整。研究表明，PI调节的比例系数对系统的e动态响应有较大的影响，积分系数对消除系统的稳态误差起着较大的作用，同时，若这两个参数选择不当，将会造成系统的不稳定。     

Upscaling hydraulic conductivity: theory and examples from geohydrological studies

This paper presents an overview of the theory of upscaling hydraulic conductivity and describes two case studies in which some of this theory has been applied. The representative hydraulic conductivity of a numerical model block (block conductivity for short) is defined in terms of smaller scale hydraulic conductivities. Also, using elementary examples, some general properties of block conductivities are given. Analytical solutions for the block conductivity are presented that were derived by various authors for uniform flow conditions both in a deterministic and in a stochastic setting. Some results of the hydraulic upscaling theory are illustrated by two case studies from the Netherlands. The first case study deals with deriving the representative hydraulic conductivity tensor of a clay layer. Upscaling results are compared with traditional harmonic averaging. In the second case study the upscaling is used to derive the three-dimensional distribution of block conductivities for a numerical groundwater model of a confining layer of complex deposits. Here stochastic upscaling is used together with a geostatistical simulation approach. The simulated block conductivities are used in a numerical groundwater model and results are compared with pumping tests. When the upscaling is ignored groundwater flow through the deposits is predicted wrongly.     

Maximum principle for mean-field jump–diffusion stochastic delay differential equations and its application to finance

This paper investigates a stochastic optimal control problem with delay and of mean-field type, where the controlled state process is governed by a mean-field jump–diffusion stochastic delay differential equation. Two sufficient maximum principles and one necessary maximum principle are established for the underlying system. As an application, a bicriteria mean–variance portfolio selection problem with delay is studied to demonstrate the effectiveness and potential of the proposed techniques. Under certain conditions, explicit expressions are provided for the efficient portfolio and the efficient frontier, which are as elegant as those in the classical mean–variance problem without delays.     

路径长度受限的随机需求VRP的模型和算法

路径长度受限的随机需求VRP在生产、生活中有着广泛的应用。给出了路径长度受限的随机需求VRP问题的线性整数规划模型,在不允许部分服务和仅能服务失败一次的策略下设计了一个启发式算法。该算法以离散优化中广泛应用的扫描算法为基础生成服务的一个初始可行方案,然后利用模拟退火算法改进得到近似最优解。对需求为二项分布的50个结点、1个服务中心的问题进行了数值试验,数值结果表明该算法对求解路径长度受限的随机需求VRP是有效的。