Kinetics of two-step anionic polymerization

This article deals with the kinetics of two-step anionic polymerization by way of a non-steady state method. Several molecular parameters can be evaluated using the formulae developed. A bimodal molecular weight distribution function for the resulting polymer is derived from the set of kinetic differential equations, which is in agreement with the experimental data reported.     

Extrapolation of fuzzy values from incomplete data bases

This paper presents different approaches which enable a data base management system to obtain a plausible fuzzy estimate for an attribute value of an item for which the information is not explicitly stored in the data base. This can be made either by a kind of analogical reasoning from information about particular items or by means of expert rules which specify the (fuzzy) sets of possible values of the attribute under consideration, for various classes of items. Another kind of expert rules enables the system to compute an estimate from the attribute value of another item provided that, in other respects, this latter item sufficiently resembles the item, the value of which we are interested in; then these expert rules are used either for controlling the analogical reasoning process or for enlarging the scope of application of the first kind of expert rules. The different approaches are discussed in the framework of possibility theory.     

Spare parts inventory management with demand lead times and rationing

We study an inventory system that consists of two demand classes. The orders in the first class need to be satisfied immediately, whereas the orders in the second class are to be filled in a given demand lead time. The two classes are also of different criticality. For this system, we propose a policy that rations the non-critical orders. Under a one-for-one replenishment policy with backordering and for Poisson demand arrivals for both classes, we first derive expressions for the service levels of both classes. The service level for the critical class is an approximation, whereas the service level for the non-critical class is exact. We then conduct a computational study to show that our approximation works reasonably, the benefits of rationing can be substantial, and the incorporation of demand lead time provides more value when the demand class with demand lead time is the critical class. The research is motivated by the spare parts service system of a major capital equipment manufacturer that faces two types of demand. For this company, the critical down orders need to be satisfied immediately, while the less critical maintenance orders can be satisfied after a fixed demand lead time. We conduct a case study with 64 representative parts and show that significant savings (as much as 14% on inventory on hand) are possible through incorporation of demand lead times and rationing.     

Time and cost securing in complex large-scale projects

Meeting time and cost objectives in complex projects involves specific problems and risks. An attempt is made to analyse the components of total cost increase of a project caused by time delay. An outline is given as to how these considerations can be used to estimate cost increases in investors' decision situations as well as to ascertain fair contractual penalties and claims for compensation and for the evaluation of justified project acceleration costs.     

Uncertainty,belief, and probability1

We introduce a new probabilistic approach to dealing with uncertainty, based on the observation that probability theory does not require that every event be assigned a probability. For a nonmeasurable event (one to which we do not assign a probability), we can talk about only the inner measure and outer measure of the event. In addition to removing the requirement that every event be assigned a probability, our approach circumvents other criticisms of probability-based approaches to uncertainty. For example, the measure of belief in an event turns out to be represented by an interval (defined by the inner and outer measures), rather than by a single number. Further, this approach allows us to assign a belief (inner measure) to an event E without committing to a belief about its negation -E (since the inner measure of an event plus the inner measure of its negation is not necessarily one). Interestingly enough, inner measures induced by probability measures turn out to correspond in a precise sense to Dempster-Shafer belief functions. Hence, in addition to providing promising new conceptual tools for dealing with uncertainty, our approach shows that a key part of the important Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is firmly rooted in classical probability theory. Cet article présente une nouvelle approche probabiliste en ce qui concerne le traitement de l'incertitude; celle-ci est basée sur l'observation que la théorie des probabilityés n'exige pas qu'une probabilityé soit assignée à chaque événement. Dans le cas d'un événement non mesurable (un événement pour lequel on n'assigne aucune probabilityé), nous ne pouvons discuter que de la mesure intérieure et de la mesure extérieure de l'évenément. En plus d'éliminer la nécessité d'assigner une probabilityéà l'événement, cette nouvelle approche apporte une réponse aux autres critiques des approches à l'incertitude basées sur des probabilityés. Par exemple, la mesure de croyance dans un événement est représentée par un intervalle (défini par la mesure intérieure et extérieure) plutǒt que par un nombre unique. De plus, cette approche nous permet d'assigner une croyance (mesure intérieure) à un événement E sans se compromettre vers une croyance à propos de sa négation -E (puisque la mesure intérieure d'un événement et la mesure intérieure de sa négation ne sont pas nécessairement une seule et unique mesure). II est intéressant de noter que les mesures intérieures qui résultent des mesures de probabilityé correspondent d'une manière précise aux fonctions de croyance de Dempster-Shafer. En plus de constituer un nouvel outil conceptuel prometteur dans le traitement de l'incertitude, cette approche démontre qu'une partie importante de la théorie de l'évidence de Dempster-Shafer est fermement ancrée dans la theorie classique des probabilityés.     

Computer analysis,design and simulation of horizontal ground heat exchangers

This paper presents a new computerized procedure for dealing with the design of horizontal ground heat exchangers (HGHE). The computer program is based on the transient model of coupled nonlinear partial differential equations governing heat and mass flow in soils. The model is two-dimensional and delineates the operation of ground heat storage with the HGHE and such phenomena as freezing/thawing and drying/rewetting of soil moisture. Comprehensive climatological data, such as ambient temperature, solar radiation, wind velocity, rainfall, snowfall, snow characterstics, and water vapour pressure is used to simulate conditions at the ground surface over any required length of time. The package can be applied to any geographical location by changing climatic and soil data input. The designer has the possibility of selecting any of 12 types of soils from sand to clay, 12 commercial heat pumps, nine different configurations of the HGHE, 16 plastic pipes for ground coils, and 13 ground coil fluids. The program, however, does not calculate the length of the HGHE but it evaluates the thermodynamic performance of a ground heat pump system and provides comprehensive data on thermal and hydraulic conditions in ground heat storage. The length of the ground heat exchanger is obtained from a line source theory model or from site dimensions and pipe spacing. Computed results for ground heat exchanger operation correlate fairly well with experimental data. Simulation of temperature and moisture content in the ground for natural conditions (no heat extraction/deposition) showed a fair agreement with field data. The entire computer program is user-friendly, interactive, menu-driven, and written in FORTRAN 77.     

A bidding decision index for construction contractors

Results from applying the model on a sample of contractors, the majority of whom were international and operating in Egypt, reinforces the credibility of the developed methodology, claim the authors.     

A dynamic linear programming approach to market allocation of renewable resources in the italian energy system: The case of solar thermal and biogas technologies

In Italy solar thermal energy and energy from biogas are two possible means of reducing dependence on energy imports. Using a multiperiod LP model (MARKAL) the authors assessed the likely potential of both technologies under various circumstances. The study covered the period 1980–2005, in five segments of five years. It focused only on the subsystem of the energy end-uses which can be substituted for by solar thermal and biogas technologies. The overall non-renewable sources which can be saved in 20 years by these technologies total 450 PJ (1 PJ = 10^{1 5} J) if the fuel prices rise at 0 per cent average annual, 1450 PJ if the fuel prices rise at 4.2 per cent average annual, 1860 PJ if the fuel prices rise at 7.2 per cent average annual and 3780 PJ if the fuel prices rise at 15 per cent average annual. However the most competitive technologies appear to be solar water heaters used mainly in the private and commercial sectors and biogas systems used mainly in the agricultural sector. The study was carried out by APRE under ENEA (formerly CNEN) contract and was intended to serve as an analytical basis for establishing an overall development and demonstration strategy for end-use renewable technologies in Italy.     

Communications on energy: Fighting London's cold war

This communication illustrates the work of the London Energy and Employment Network. LEEN has the twin aims of promoting a rational energy policy for London and, in the process, generating much needed employment. In cooperation with Hackney, one of Britain's poorest boroughs, LEEN organized Hackney's Cold War — a series of initiatives showing the practical measures, informational back-up and funding sources necessary for a local energy policy. LEEN intends to repeat this project in other London Boroughs, with the eventual aim of helping to persuade central government to adopt a more comprehensive approach to energy conservation nationally.