Time and cost securing in complex large-scale projects

Meeting time and cost objectives in complex projects involves specific problems and risks. An attempt is made to analyse the components of total cost increase of a project caused by time delay. An outline is given as to how these considerations can be used to estimate cost increases in investors' decision situations as well as to ascertain fair contractual penalties and claims for compensation and for the evaluation of justified project acceleration costs.     

Markov analysis of qualitative dynamics1

Common sense sometimes predicts events to be likely or unlikely rather than merely possible. We extend methods of qualitative reasoning to predict the relative likelihoods of possible qualitative behaviors by viewing the dynamics of a system as a Markov chain over its transition graph. This involves adding qualitative or quantitative estimates of transition probabilities to each of the transitions and applying the standard theory of Markov chains to distinguish persistent states from transient states and to calculate recurrence times, settling times, and probabilities for ending up in each state. Much of the analysis depends solely on qualitative estimates of transition probabilities, which follow directly from theoretical considerations and which lead to qualitative predictions about entire classes of systems. Quantitative estimates for specific systems are derived empirically and lead to qualitative and quantitative conclusions, most of which are insensitive to small perturbations in the estimated transition probabilities. The algorithms are straightforward and efficient.     

Issues in nonlinear stochastic grey box identification

Grey box identification refers to the practice of identifying dynamical systems in model structures exploiting partial prior information. This contribution reviews a method for stochastic grey box identification and surveys experiences and lessons of applying it to a number of industrial processes. Issues to be addressed include advantages and costs of introducing stochastics into the model, the question of what contribution must be expected from the model designer as opposed to what can be formalized in computer algorithms, and an outlook on future plans to resolve present shortcomings.     

Remarks on the mean square tracking error

The purpose of this paper is to extend recent results of Ljung and Priouret to a more general class of regressors.     

Bioprocess applications of model-based estimation techniques

The last decade has seen the development of a number of approaches for estimating those variables which are difficult to measure on-line in industrial process situations. Whilst a range of techniques is available, a common element is the use of process knowledge in the form of a system model. In the case of bioprocess systems, although a large range of models has been presented in the literature, their use in estimation schemes on an industrial scale has been limited. A number of reasons can be identified for their low level of utilisation. Of particular significance is the uncertainty which exists in quantifying system performance and the process-model mismatch which inevitably results. The level of ‘pre-defined model’ uncertainty, together with the knowledge gained during the course of the fermentation, serves to dictate estimator structure. The paper considers a range of estimation strategies and contrasts, through industrial applications, their performance characteristics and utility.     

Stability of large-scale coal-fired MHD channels

Stability of large-scale coal-fired MHD channels is studied by (1) linearized stability analysis, and (2) time-dependent 1-D analysis. The channel length is 15 m with 600 electrode pairs, and the output power ranges from 220.6 MW through 258.7 MW. Linearized stability analyses show that the Faraday channels operated with fixed loading resistance are stable, whereas the two waves of u and u–a (u, a: gas and sound velocity) become unstable in the Faraday channel with fixed loading factor. Two waves of u and u–a are unstable in the diagonal channel with fixed loading current and the u + a wave becomes unstable in the diagonal channel with fixed electrode current. Time-dependent one-dimensional analyses indicate that the Faraday channels with fixed load resistance are smooth without growth of fluctuation. The diagonal channels with fixed electrode current are smooth with no fluctuation, though the linear theory indicates that the u + a wave is unstable. The diagonal channel with fixed load current suffers large disturbance along the latter half of the channel, being consistent with the linearized analysis which indicates that the u - a and u waves are unstable.     

Retrieving ocean surface current by 4-D variational assimilation of sea surface temperature images

In this article we propose a new method to estimate ocean mesoscale structures of the surface current velocity by processing sea surface satellite images. Assuming that the intensity level can be described by a transport-diffusion equation, the proposed approach is based on variational assimilation of image observations within a simple transport-diffusion model. This approach permits to retrieve the current velocity field from a sequence of satellite images. Results of processing synthetic data and real NOAA-AVHRR satellite images are presented and commented.     

齐次等式约束线性回归模型条件根方估计的效率

对齐次等式约束线性回归模型回归系数的约束最小二乘估计提出改进,引入一种估计的相对效率,证明在一定条件下,狭义条件根方估计、广义条件根方估计的效率均高于约束最小二乘估计的效率．