Time and cost securing in complex large-scale projects

Meeting time and cost objectives in complex projects involves specific problems and risks. An attempt is made to analyse the components of total cost increase of a project caused by time delay. An outline is given as to how these considerations can be used to estimate cost increases in investors' decision situations as well as to ascertain fair contractual penalties and claims for compensation and for the evaluation of justified project acceleration costs.     

Markov analysis of qualitative dynamics1

Common sense sometimes predicts events to be likely or unlikely rather than merely possible. We extend methods of qualitative reasoning to predict the relative likelihoods of possible qualitative behaviors by viewing the dynamics of a system as a Markov chain over its transition graph. This involves adding qualitative or quantitative estimates of transition probabilities to each of the transitions and applying the standard theory of Markov chains to distinguish persistent states from transient states and to calculate recurrence times, settling times, and probabilities for ending up in each state. Much of the analysis depends solely on qualitative estimates of transition probabilities, which follow directly from theoretical considerations and which lead to qualitative predictions about entire classes of systems. Quantitative estimates for specific systems are derived empirically and lead to qualitative and quantitative conclusions, most of which are insensitive to small perturbations in the estimated transition probabilities. The algorithms are straightforward and efficient.     

Issues in nonlinear stochastic grey box identification

Grey box identification refers to the practice of identifying dynamical systems in model structures exploiting partial prior information. This contribution reviews a method for stochastic grey box identification and surveys experiences and lessons of applying it to a number of industrial processes. Issues to be addressed include advantages and costs of introducing stochastics into the model, the question of what contribution must be expected from the model designer as opposed to what can be formalized in computer algorithms, and an outlook on future plans to resolve present shortcomings.     

Remarks on the mean square tracking error

The purpose of this paper is to extend recent results of Ljung and Priouret to a more general class of regressors.     

Bioprocess applications of model-based estimation techniques

The last decade has seen the development of a number of approaches for estimating those variables which are difficult to measure on-line in industrial process situations. Whilst a range of techniques is available, a common element is the use of process knowledge in the form of a system model. In the case of bioprocess systems, although a large range of models has been presented in the literature, their use in estimation schemes on an industrial scale has been limited. A number of reasons can be identified for their low level of utilisation. Of particular significance is the uncertainty which exists in quantifying system performance and the process-model mismatch which inevitably results. The level of ‘pre-defined model’ uncertainty, together with the knowledge gained during the course of the fermentation, serves to dictate estimator structure. The paper considers a range of estimation strategies and contrasts, through industrial applications, their performance characteristics and utility.     

高校广告学课程教学模式改革探讨

广告行业的繁荣,使得广告业成为当今社会炙手可热的行业之一,各地高校争相开办广告类专业或开设广告学课程.作者分析了目前高校广告学课程教学的现状,指出高校广告学课程教学中存在的不合理因素,并提出了改革建议,旨在适应市场经济发展的需要,创建具有特色的广告学课程教学新模式.     

网络课程设计中学习者学习动力的调查与建议

网络教育中有关学习者学习动力的研究日益受到重视,通过对现有网络课程设计中学习者学习动力设计状况的调查可发现其中存在的问题,分析这些问题与不足并针对性地提出改进建议,以期对网络课程的完善提供有益参考。     

信息化条件下任职士官计算机课程教学改革初探

针对任职士官计算机水平与部队信息化建设要求不相适应的现实问题,深入调查分析了某部队任职士官计算机水平的现状与实际需求,明确了士官任职教育计算机教学的目标,进而有针对性地提出了任职士官计算机课程教学改革的几点新思路,确保课程教学真正服务于部队,服务于实战。