An EM‐based adaptive multiple target tracking filter

Tracking targets of interest is one of the major research areas in radar surveillance systems. We formulate the problem as incomplete data estimation and apply EM to the MAP estimate. The resulting filter has a recursive structure analogous to the Kalman filter. The advantage is that the measurement‐update deals with multiple measurements in parallel and the parameter‐update estimates the system parameters on the fly. Experiments tracking separate targets in parallel show that tracking maintenance ratio of the proposed system is better than that of NNF and RMS position error is smaller than that of PDAF. Also, the system parameters are correctly obtained even from incorrect initial values. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Time and cost securing in complex large-scale projects

Meeting time and cost objectives in complex projects involves specific problems and risks. An attempt is made to analyse the components of total cost increase of a project caused by time delay. An outline is given as to how these considerations can be used to estimate cost increases in investors' decision situations as well as to ascertain fair contractual penalties and claims for compensation and for the evaluation of justified project acceleration costs.     

Markov analysis of qualitative dynamics1

Common sense sometimes predicts events to be likely or unlikely rather than merely possible. We extend methods of qualitative reasoning to predict the relative likelihoods of possible qualitative behaviors by viewing the dynamics of a system as a Markov chain over its transition graph. This involves adding qualitative or quantitative estimates of transition probabilities to each of the transitions and applying the standard theory of Markov chains to distinguish persistent states from transient states and to calculate recurrence times, settling times, and probabilities for ending up in each state. Much of the analysis depends solely on qualitative estimates of transition probabilities, which follow directly from theoretical considerations and which lead to qualitative predictions about entire classes of systems. Quantitative estimates for specific systems are derived empirically and lead to qualitative and quantitative conclusions, most of which are insensitive to small perturbations in the estimated transition probabilities. The algorithms are straightforward and efficient.     

Issues in nonlinear stochastic grey box identification

Grey box identification refers to the practice of identifying dynamical systems in model structures exploiting partial prior information. This contribution reviews a method for stochastic grey box identification and surveys experiences and lessons of applying it to a number of industrial processes. Issues to be addressed include advantages and costs of introducing stochastics into the model, the question of what contribution must be expected from the model designer as opposed to what can be formalized in computer algorithms, and an outlook on future plans to resolve present shortcomings.     

Approximate channel identification via δ‐signed correlation

A method of approximate channel identification is proposed that is based on a simplification of the correlation estimator. Despite the numerical simplification (no multiplications or additions are required, only comparisons and an accumulator), the performance of the proposed estimator is not significantly worse than that of the standard correlation estimator. A free (user selectable) parameter moves ‘smoothly’ from a situation with small sum‐squared channel estimation error but hard‐to‐identify channel peaks, to one with a larger sum‐squared estimation error but easy‐to‐identify channel peaks. The proposed estimator is shown to be biased and its behaviour is analysed in a number of situations. Applications of the proposed estimator to sparsity detection, symbol timing recovery and to the initialization of blind equalizers are suggested. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Remarks on the mean square tracking error

The purpose of this paper is to extend recent results of Ljung and Priouret to a more general class of regressors.     

A review of error estimation and adaptivity in the boundary element method

When using the boundary element method, the accuracy of the numerical solution depends critically on the discretization of the boundary into elements (panels). The distribution of the panels is one of the most important decisions taken when analyzing a problem, but still the vast majority of users employ empirical guidelines to distribute the panels. This paper reviews the various adaptive schemes that have been proposed for boundary elements. Numerical results are obtained for infinite fluid flow problems and free surface problems and are used to assess the reliability and effectiveness of each method.     

Bioprocess applications of model-based estimation techniques

The last decade has seen the development of a number of approaches for estimating those variables which are difficult to measure on-line in industrial process situations. Whilst a range of techniques is available, a common element is the use of process knowledge in the form of a system model. In the case of bioprocess systems, although a large range of models has been presented in the literature, their use in estimation schemes on an industrial scale has been limited. A number of reasons can be identified for their low level of utilisation. Of particular significance is the uncertainty which exists in quantifying system performance and the process-model mismatch which inevitably results. The level of ‘pre-defined model’ uncertainty, together with the knowledge gained during the course of the fermentation, serves to dictate estimator structure. The paper considers a range of estimation strategies and contrasts, through industrial applications, their performance characteristics and utility.     

Improved Estimates for the Accuracy of Small Disjuncts

Learning systems often describe a target class as a disjunction of conjunctions of conditions. Recent work has noted that small disjuncts, i.e., those supported by few training examples, typically have poor predictive accuracy. One model of this accuracy is provided by the Bayes-Laplace formula based on the number of training examples covered by the disjunct and the number of them belonging to the target class. However, experiments show that small disjuncts associated with target classes of different relative frequencies tend to have different error rates. This note defines the context of a disjunct as the set of training examples that fail to satisfy at most one of its conditions. An empirical adaptation of the Bayes-Laplace formula is presented that also makes use of the relative frequency of the target class in this context. Trials are reported comparing the performance of the original formula and the adaptation in six learning tasks.