Analysis and numerical study of a hybrid BGM-3DVAR data assimilation scheme using satellite radiance data for heavy rain forecasts

A fine heavy rain forecast plays an important role in the accurate flood forecast, the urban rainstorm waterlogging and the secondary hydrological disaster preventions. To improve the heavy rain forecast skills, a hybrid Breeding Growing Mode (BGM)-three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) Data Assimilation (DA) scheme is designed on running the Advanced Research WRF (ARW WRF) model using the Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit A (AMSU-A) satellite radiance data. Results show that: the BGM ensemble prediction method can provide an effective background field and a flow dependent background error covariance for the BGM-3DVAR scheme. The BGM-3DVAR scheme adds some effective mesoscale information with similar scales as the heavy rain clusters to the initial field in the heavy rain area, which improves the heavy rain forecast significantly, while the 3DVAR scheme adds information with relatively larger scales than the heavy rain clusters to the initial field outside of the heavy rain area, which does not help the heavy rain forecast improvement. Sensitive experiments demonstrate that the flow dependent background error covariance and the ensemble mean background field are both the key factors for adding effective mesoscale information to the heavy rain area, and they are both essential for improving the heavy rain forecasts.     

建筑群风环境干扰效应研究

在TJ3风洞中,对浦东一拟建大楼与其周边建筑群之间的风环境群体干扰效应做了试验研究。分别对仅单体建筑、仅周边建筑群、单体建筑和周边建筑群三种情况进行了风洞试验。分析试验数据,得出各测点处平均风速系数rM和阵风风速系数rG随风向角的变化,进而得到周边建筑群对试验建筑风速系数的干扰因子IF1和试验建筑对周边建筑群风速系数的干扰因子IF2随风向角的变化。试验结果表明：处于高层建筑的尾流区或者当建筑并排布置形成街道峡谷时,干扰效应十分显著;矩形截面建筑的尖角效应比较明显;试验建筑建成后对原周边风环境的影响不可忽略。     

高层建筑行人高度风环境风洞试验研究

通过分析风洞试验数据,利用Lawson评估标准,对上海浦东一拟建大楼周围的行人高度风环境进行了评估。结果发现底层行人区、中庭附近敞开区域的行人风环境的舒适性水平满足普通步行者要求、危险性水平均满足一般公共场所的要求。但有部分外围区域(尤其是接近周边大街的一些区域)的舒适性水平和危险性水平不符合要求,需要采取一定的改善措施。