Methodology for Estimating Streamflow by Water Balance and Rating Curve Methods Based on Logistic Regression

Both water balance (WB) and rating curve (RC) are methods for estimating streamflow. The first is mostly used to estimate reservoir outflows, while the second is usually adopted in hydrometeorological network streamflow gauges. While WB uses hourly collected data, the RC estimates streamflow using current water level and extrapolation techniques. The objective of this study was to analyze variations in the reservoir’s hourly outflow at Queimado Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP Queimado) and to propose a method to evaluate whether the estimate of the daily outflows, obtained by the WB method, is similar to the flow values obtained at a conventional station. The logistic regression (LR) model was used because it is a method that adopts binary, categorically dependent variables to identify the event of interest. The results showed that the values of streamflow, obtained from an average of two daily readings, were a good representation of the flows in the region. The LR was able to identify atypical data, especially in the rainy season. This means that data consistency analysis can be faster and safer, when adequately employed and considering the proposed conditions, contributing to both management policies and the management of water resources.

     

Viability of intertwined supply networks: extending the supply chain resilience angles towards survivability. A position paper motivated by COVID-19 outbreak

An intertwined supply network (ISN) is an entirety of interconnected supply chains (SC) which, in their integrity secure the provision of society and markets with goods and services. The ISNs are open systems with structural dynamics since the firms may exhibit multiple behaviours by changing the buyer-supplier roles in interconnected or even competing SCs. From the positions of resilience, the ISNs as a whole provide services to society (e.g. food service, mobility service or communication service) which are required to ensure a long-term survival. The analysis of survivability at the level of ISN requires a consideration at a large scale as resilience of individual SCs. The recent example of coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak clearly shows the necessity of this new perspective. Our study introduces a new angle in SC resilience research when a resistance to extraordinary disruptions needs to be considered at the scale of viability. We elaborate on the integrity of the ISN and viability. The contribution of our position study lies in a conceptualisation of a novel decision-making environment of ISN viability. We illustrate the viability formation through a dynamic game-theoretic modelling of a biological system that resembles the ISN. We discuss some future research areas.     

Improving weld formability by a novel dual-rotation bobbin tool friction stir welding

A novel dual-rotation bobbin tool friction stir welding (DBT-FSW) was developed, in which the upper shoulder (US) and lower shoulder (LS) have different rotational speeds. This process was tried to weld 3.2 mm thick aluminum-lithium alloy sheets. The metallographic analysis and torque measurement were carried out to characterize the weld formability. Experimental results show that compared to conventional bobbin tool friction stir welding, the DBT-FSW has an excellent process stability, and can produce the defect-free joints in a wider range of welding parameters. These can be attributed to the significant improvement of material flow caused by the formation of a staggered layer structure and the unbalanced force between the US and LS during the DBT-FSW process.     

Graded evolution of anisotropic microstructure during sintering from crystal-oriented powder compact

Anisotropic sintering, including shrinkage and grain growth, was examined for c-axis-oriented (Sr,Ca)₂NaNb₅O₁₅ (SCNN) ceramics, which were prepared by colloidal processing under a magnetic field. In the c-axis-oriented SCNN powder compact, shrinkage and grain growth along the c-axis were higher than those along the a-axis. The anisotropic microstructural development was clearly associated with anisotropic sintering shrinkage. X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy, and energy back scattering diffraction showed that the grain growth of oriented particles by including random grains contribute to the development of the oriented microstructure. Finally, the highly crystal-oriented SCNN ceramics with a densified microstructure were obtained through anisotropic sintering. These results clearly showed the potential to develop a well-defined anisotropic microstructure during sintering by designing and controlling the particle packing structure in a powder compact.