COVID-19 hospitalization rates rise exponentially with age,inversely proportional to thymic T-cell production

Here, we report that COVID-19 hospitalization rates follow an exponential relationship with age, doubling for every 16 years of age or equivalently increasing by 4.5% per year of life (R² = 0.98). This mirrors the well-studied exponential decline of both thymus volume and T-cell production, which halve every 16 years. COVID-19 can therefore be added to the list of other diseases with this property, including those caused by methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, MERS-CoV, West Nile virus, Streptococcus pneumoniae and certain cancers, such as chronic myeloid leukaemia and brain cancers. In addition, the incidence of severe disease and mortality due to COVID-19 are both higher in men, consistent with the degree to which thymic involution (and the decrease in T-cell production with age) is more severe in men compared to women. Since these properties are shared with some non-contagious diseases, we hypothesized that the age dependence does not come from social-mixing patterns, i.e. that the probability of hospitalization given infection rises exponentially, doubling every 16 years. A Bayesian analysis of daily hospitalizations, incorporating contact matrices, found that this relationship holds for every age group except for the under 20s. While older adults have fewer contacts than young adults, our analysis suggests that there is an approximate cancellation between the effects of fewer contacts for the elderly and higher infectiousness due to a higher probability of developing severe disease. Our model fitting suggests under 20s have 49–75% additional immune protection beyond that predicted by strong thymus function alone, consistent with increased juvenile cross-immunity from other viruses. We found no evidence for differences between age groups in susceptibility to infection or infectiousness to others (given disease state), i.e. the only important factor in the age dependence of hospitalization rates is the probability of hospitalization given infection. These findings suggest the existence of a T-cell exhaustion threshold, proportional to thymic output and that clonal expansion of peripheral T-cells does not affect disease risk. The strikingly simple inverse relationship between risk and thymic T-cell output adds to the evidence that thymic involution is an important factor in the decline of the immune system with age and may also be an important clue in understanding disease progression, not just for COVID-19 but other diseases as well.     

Cadaver lungs for transplantation. Effect of ventilation with alveolar gas

In an effort to increase the donor pool for lung transplantation (LTX), we have demonstrated the feasibility of LTX from circulation-arrested cadavers in a canine LTX model. We hypothesized that ventilation of the cadaver lung with alveolar gas (20% O2, 5% CO2, balance N2) (AG) would be superior to ventilation with 100% oxygen (O2) after circulatory arrest of the donor. Twelve mongrel dogs were intubated, heparinized and euthanized by pentothal injection and ventilated with AG (n=6) or O2 (n=6). Four hours later, donor animals underwent sternotomy, and the lungs were flushed with cold modified Euro-Collins solution, harvested, and stored inflated in ice slush. Left lung allotransplantation was performed, and recipients were made dependent o n the transplanted lung by occlusion of the contralateral bronchus and pulmonary artery. Recipient animals were ventilated with an FiO2 of 0.4 and followed for 8 hr. Total ischemic time was 7.9 hr for both groups. Pulmonary edema developed in all recipients of AG lungs; one recipient survived the 8-hr observation period with poor oxygenation. In contrast, three of six recipients of O2-ventilated lungs survived for 8-hr with excellent gas exchange. Specimens of donor lungs before and after transplant were evaluated histologically utilizing trypan blue exclusion as an indicator of cell viability. At the time of organ retrieval 4 hr after death, 6% of cells were nonviable in the O2-ventilated cadaver lungs. Circulation-arrested cadaver lungs ventilated with 100% O2 prior to organ retrieval have superior pulmonary function after transplant compared with lungs ventilated with AG. Ventilation of cadaver lungs with AG induces pulmonary injury in this model. retrieval of donor lungs from circulation-arrested cadavers has potential for increasing the pulmonary donor pool.     

Absence of detectable human herpesvirus 8 in the semen of human immunodeficiency virus-infected men without Kaposi's sarcoma

The prevalence of human herpesvirus 8 (HHV-8)/Kaposi's sarcoma (KS)-associated herpesvirus was investigated in the semen of 99 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected men (median CD4 cell count, 357/mm3) by use of a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay capable of detecting <10 copies of HHV-8 DNA. Of the subjects, 95 (96%) self-identified as men who have sex with men (MSM), and 3 had a history of clinical KS. Seminal cell specimens were negative for HHV-8 in 98 subjects. None of the 26 without KS (27.1% of 96 tested) who were seropositive for HHV-8 by IFA for latency-associated nuclear antigens had HHV-8 detected in their semen. The only subject with any evidence for seminal HHV-8 DNA was seropositive for HHV-8 and had active KS. HHV-8 was detected in 10 (10.4%) of 96 peripheral blood mononuclear cell specimens. The prevalence of HHV-8 DNA by PCR in semen of HIV-infected MSM without KS is low.     

Project to develop school education services in Delhi, India

There are many ways in which quantitative decision models can be applied in project management. The introduction of a project evaluation review technique network model to the development of a school education service in the city of Delhi, India, is described. The reasons for choosing this method, its advantages and limitations are discussed. Examples of the information obtained from the model are presented and explained.     

Coupled-mode theory of overmoded cylindrical metal bragg-reflectors

A coupled-mode theory of overmoded, cylindrical metal Bragg-reflectors is presented. The first-order Bragg coupling constants are derived for TE → TE, TM → TM, TE → TM, and TM → TE mode conversions. Reflectivities and transverse modeQ-factors are computed for a Bragg-reflector resonator. The results illustrate important competition effects between nearly-degenerate-transverse-modes occurring within both the Bragg-reflectors and the resonator.     

Longitudinal bone mineral density changes in early rheumatoid arthritis

A prospective longitudinal study of patients with early RA was performed to examine the influence of disease duration, disease activity and physical activity on bone loss. Sixty-seven patients with non-steroid treated RA of less than 5 yr duration, including 16 patients with disease duration less than 6 months, had BMD measurements of the femoral neck and the lumbar spine over a 12-month period using dual energy X-ray absorptiometry. The BMD changes were compared with values from 72 control patients and were also correlated with serial measurements of disease activity (measured by the Stoke Index) and disability [measured by the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) score], at 3-monthly intervals over the 12-month period. No significant differences in BMD changes were found between RA patients and controls overall. Patients with disease duration of less than 6 months had significantly greater loss of BMD at the femoral neck (-3.9%, S.E.M. 1.5) than the remainder of the cohort (-0.2%, S.E.M. 0.7) (P = 0.02) and controls (-0.8%, S.E.M. 0.6). Lumbar spine BMD changes correlated with the initial Stoke Index (Rs-0.373, P = 0.01) but not mean Stoke Indices. There was no correlation of BMD changes with age or HAQ scores. These findings suggest that significant bone loss occurs within the first few months of disease in patients with RA.     

Renal length in sickle cell disease: observations from a cohort study

Renal length has been measured by ultrasound in 237 subjects with homozygous sickle cell (SS) disease, 147 with sickle cell-hemoglobin C (SC) disease, and in 78 age-matched controls with a normal hemoglobin (AA) genotype. As expected, renal length increased with age in all genotypes but mean length was significantly greater in SS disease compared with SC disease (mean difference 4.3 mm after adjustment for height) and significantly greater in both genotypes than in AA controls (SS/AA difference 9.2 mm, SC/AA difference 5.0 mm after adjustment for height). Examination of relationships between renal length and some hematological indices (hemoglobin, fetal hemoglobin, reticulocyte counts, alpha thalassemia status) in SS or SC disease showed only a significant negative correlation with hemoglobin and positive correlation with reticulocyte count in SS disease. Further analysis suggested that the stronger relationship was between renal length and high reticulocyte count. The mechanism of renal enlargement is unknown although glomerular hypertrophy and increased renal blood volume are likely contributors.     

Transrectal electrostimulation therapy for neuropathic bowel dysfunction in children with myelomeningocele

PURPOSE: We attempted to evaluate the efficacy of transrectal bowel stimulation for neurogenic bowel dysfunction in children with myelodysplasia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Daily sessions of transrectal electrostimulation were performed on an outpatient basis for 2 to 3 weeks on children with myelodysplasia and stool incontinence. If benefits were noted, 5 to 10 additional daily sessions were performed. Complete success was defined as improvement in all parameters of interest, including decrease in the frequency of daily bowel movements, increased sensation, increased ability to hold stool and a significant subjective change in bowel habits. Moderate success implied improvement in 1 to 3 parameters and treatment failure was defined as lack of improvement in any parameter. RESULTS: A total of 55 children 2 to 14 years old (mean age 6.7) completed a mean of 18 daily sessions per patient of bowel electrostimulation. Followup ranged from 1 to 6 years. Diapers are no longer required due to defecation problems in 14 children older than 3 years. Complete success was achieved in 20 cases (36.3%) and moderate success in an additional 30 (54.5%, overall success rate 90.8%). Specifically, 89% of the patients reported elimination of stooling accidents, 82% reported increased sensation and 71% were able to hold the bowel movement. Overall 68% of the patients noticed significantly improved bowel function. Complete/moderate success of transrectal electro-stimulation was statistically significant for all 4 parameters (p < 0.05), and complete success was significant for increased sensation, ability to hold and episodes of accidents. Therapy failed in 5 children (9%). There were no untoward effects. CONCLUSIONS: Transrectal electrostimulation is a well tolerated and minimally invasive modality that provides sustainable improvement in stool continence in children with myelomeningocele and neuropathic bowel dysfunction.