Uncertainty Matters: Computer Models at the Science–Policy Interface

The use of computer models offers a general and flexible framework that can help to deal with some of the complexities and difficulties associated with the development of water management plans as prescribed by the Water Framework Directive. However, despite the advantages modelling presents, the integration of information derived from models into policy is far away from being trivial or the norm. Part of the difficulties of this integration is rooted in the lack of confidence policy makers have on the incorporation of modelling information into policy formulation. In this paper we examine the reasons for this apparent lack of confidence and explore how some tools, presently in use, address this problem. We conclude that public confidence in models is highly dependent on the way uncertainties are addressed and suggest possible directions of action to improve the current situation. Four real case studies illustrate how computer models have been used in The Netherlands for carrying out management plans at regional and national scale. We suggest that the solution to integrate modelling information into policy formulation lies on both the modelling and the policy-making communities.     

Relative importance of evaluation criteria for enterprise systems: a conjoint study

Abstract.  While a large body of research exists on the development and implementation of software, organizations are increasingly acquiring enterprise software packages [e.g. enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems] instead of custom developing their own software applications. To be competitive in the marketplace, software package development firms must manage the three-pronged trade-off between cost, quality and functionality. Surprisingly, prior research has made little attempt to investigate the characteristics of packaged software that influence management information system (MIS) managers' likelihood of recommending purchase. As a result, both the criteria by which MIS managers evaluate prospective packaged systems and the attributes that lead to commercially competitive ERP software products are poorly understood. This paper examines this understudied issue through a conjoint study. We focus on ERP systems, which are among the largest and most complex packaged systems that are purchased by organizations. In a conjoint study, 1008 evaluation decisions based on hypothetical ERP software package profiles were completed by managers in 126 organizations. The study represents the first empirical investigation of the relative importance that managers ascribe to various factors that are believed to be important in evaluating packaged software. The results provide important insights for both organizations that acquire such systems and those that develop them. The results show that functionality, reliability, cost, ease of use and ease of customization are judged to be important criteria, while ease of implementation and vendor reputation were not found to be significant. Functionality and reliability were found to be the most heavily weighted factors. We conclude the paper with a detailed discussion of the results and their implications for software acquisition and development practice.     

Metabolic factors have a major impact on kidney allograft survival

BACKGROUND: At the present time, late graft loss is the major cause of kidney failure after transplantation. However, the influence of metabolic factors on this process is ill-defined. METHODS: To identify the impact of lipid metabolism, glucose metabolism, and blood pressure and their prognostic value for graft survival, data for all recipients of a kidney allograft with a potential graft survival of >15 years and a minimum graft survival of 1 month were analyzed retrospectively. Recipients of kidney grafts functioning more than 15 years (n=32) were compared with those with a graft function of less than 10 years (n=152, controls) and evaluated in a multivariate analysis. RESULTS: Low levels of serum cholesterol, triglycerides, and glucose, before and after transplantation, were accompanied by a prolonged graft survival. Prognostic factors for early graft failure included serum triglycerides >300 mg/dl, cholesterol >250 mg/dl before transplantation, serum creatinine >4.0 mg/dl 1 month after transplantation, and donor age above 45 or less than 10 years. Additionally, systolic and, particularly, diastolic blood pressure was lower in the group with a prolonged graft function as compared with controls immediately before and after transplantation. In addition, the incidence of primary graft function was lower and the incidence of acute rejection episodes higher in controls. Cold and warm ischemic time, body mass index, recipient age, and gender did not differ significantly. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that metabolic parameters play an important role in the process of late graft loss after kidney transplantation.     

13C- and 23Na-NMR investigations on alkali cellulose

Summary Solid state ²³Na- and ¹³C-NMR spectra of alkali cellulose are presented as a function of NaOH-concentration of the steeping lye, steeping temperature and amount of adhering lye (press factor). Results are discussed with regard to chemical binding of NaOH to the cellulose chain in the system cellulose/ NaOH/H₂O.Presented at the 22nd Microsymposium, Characterization of Structure and Dynamics of Macromolecular Systems by NMR Methods, Prague, CSSR, July 20–23,1981     

Quantifying the evolution of TTCN-3 as a language

Ten years of maintenance, nine published revisions of the standards for the Testing and Test Control Notation version 3 (TTCN-3), more than 500 change requests since 2006, and 10 years of activity on the official TTCN-3 mailing list add up to a rich history, not unlike that of many successful Open Source Software (OSS) projects. In this article, we contemplate TTCN-3 in the context of software evolution and examine its history quantitatively. We mined the changes in the textual content of the standards, the data in change requests from the past 5 years, and the mailing list archives from the past 10 years. In addition, to characterize the use of the TTCN-3 we investigated the meta-data of the contributions at the TTCN-3 User Conference, and the use of language constructs in a large-scale TTCN-3 test suite. Based on these data sets, we first analyze the amount, density, and location of changes within the different parts of the standard. Then, we analyze the activity and focus of the user community and the maintenance team in both the change request management system and the official TTCN-3 mailing list. Finally, we analyze the distribution of contributions at the TTCN-3 User Conference across different topics over the past 8 years and construct use anomalies during the development of a large-scale test suite. Our findings indicate that the TTCN-3 is becoming increasingly stable as the overall change density and intensity, as well as the number of change requests are decreasing, despite the monotonous increase in the size of the standards.     

Surface chemistry and kinetics of the hydrolysis of isocyanic acid on anatase

In order to meet the stricter NO_x and particulate emission limits for commercial vehicles, the selective catalytic reduction (SCR) with urea is currently seen having the highest potential. The conversion of urea into ammonia and carbon dioxide consists of two consecutive reactions, in which isocyanic acid is an intermediate that is hydrolyzed over TiO₂. The intrinsic kinetics and the surface chemistry for this reaction are explored. Up to a temperature of 132 °C the reaction was in the intrinsic kinetic regime (E_A = 73 kJ/mol), while at higher temperatures the reaction was limited by pore and external diffusion constraints, respectively. In the presence of NO, NH₃ and NO₂, the catalytic activity was negatively influenced, increasing in severity in the sequence mentioned indicating that nitrates formed from NO₂ were most effective in blocking cations and anions of TiO₂. IR spectroscopy indicates that dissociative adsorption of HNCO on TiO₂ forms Ti–NCO and hydrogen bonded OH species. In the presence of water, isocyanic acid was so rapidly hydrolyzed that only adsorbed ammonia was observed on the catalyst surface. The presence of NO, NH₃ and NO₂ retards hydrolysis leading to the appearance of isocyanate species on the surface.     

Pheromone specificity inEriocrania semipurpurella (Stephens) andE. sangii (Wood) (Lepidoptera: Eriocraniidae) based on chirality of semiochemicals

The fifth abdominal segment of femaleEriocrania semipurpurella (Stephens) andE. sangii (Wood) contains a pair of exocrine glands. Hexane extracts of this segment were prepared from both species and analyzed by gas chromatography with simultaneous flame ionization and electroantennographic detection (EAD). For both species, the EAD active peaks were identified as nonan-2-one, (Z)-6-nonen-2-one, and (Z)-6-nonen-2-ol by means of mass spectrometry and comparison of retention indices with those of synthetic standards. Enantiomeric separation of chiral alcohols from the female extracts was achieved by gas chromatographic analysis on a cyclodextrin column. InE. semipurpurella, a mixture of (2S,6Z)-nonen-2-ol and (2R,6Z)-nonen-2-ol (2: I) was found, whereas inE. sangii (2S,6Z)-nonen-2-ol was the predominant enantiomer and only traces of theR enantiomer were indicated by the antennal response. In field tests, a blend of the three compounds was not attractive to conspecific males. A subtractive assay showed that the alcohol in various enantiomeric mixtures was the only attractive compound, whereas addition of (Z)-6-nonen-2-one to the alcohol completely inhibited the attraction of both species. A trapping experiment including a wide range of ratios between theR andS enantiomers showed that baits containing 95–100% of theS enantiomer were attractive to maleE. sangii, whereas males ofE. semipurpurella were attracted to all tested ratios of the enantiomers. However, the response profiles of maleE. semipurpurella differed between populations from southern Sweden, south Finland, and the Kola Peninsula in Russia. In south Sweden males were maximally attracted to a racemic mixture of the alcohols. At the Kola PeninsulaE. semipurpurella was attracted to baits containing 95–100% of theR enantiomer. In south Finland all tested ratios between 0 and 100%R enantiomer trappedE. semipurpurella, but the trap catches appeared to be bimodally distributed with peaks around 15 and 70%R enantiomer. The trapping results suggest the existence of pheromone races or sibling species among the specimens identified asE. semipurpurella.Dedicated to Prof. H. J. Bestmann on the occasion of his 70th birthday.