Impact of Climate Change on Future Flood Susceptibility: an Evaluation Based on Deep Learning Algorithms and GCM Model

Floods are common and recurring natural hazards which damages is the destruction for society. Several regions of the world with different climatic conditions face the challenge of floods in different magnitudes. Here we estimate flood susceptibility based on Analytical neural network (ANN), Deep learning neural network (DLNN) and Deep boost (DB) algorithm approach. We also attempt to estimate the future rainfall scenario, using the General circulation model (GCM) with its ensemble. The Representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenario is employed for estimating the future rainfall in more an authentic way. The validation of all models was done with considering different indices and the results show that the DB model is most optimal as compared to the other models. According to the DB model, the spatial coverage of very low, low, moderate, high and very high flood prone region is 68.20%, 9.48%, 5.64%, 7.34% and 9.33% respectively. The approach and results in this research would be beneficial to take the decision in managing this natural hazard in a more efficient way.

     

Access point selection in the network of Internet of things (IoT) considering the strategic behavior of the things and users

The Journal of Supercomputing - With the expansion in the use of IoT, increasing the efficiency of these networks has become even more significant. Objects need reliable communications at suitable...     

Formal process algebraic modeling,verification, and analysis of an abstract Fuzzy Inference Cloud Service

In cloud computing, services play key roles. Services are well defined and autonomous components. Nowadays, the demand of using Fuzzy inference as a service is increasing in the domain of complex and critical systems. In such systems, along with the development of the software, the cost of detecting and fixing software defects increases. Therefore, using formal methods, which provide clear, concise, and mathematical interpretation of the system, is crucial for the design of these Fuzzy systems. To obtain this goal, we introduce the Fuzzy Inference Cloud Service (FICS) and propose a novel discipline for formal modeling of the FICS. The FICS provides the service of Fuzzy inference to the consumers. We also introduce four novel formal verification tests, which allow strict analysis of certain behavioral disciplines in the FICS as follows: (1) Internal consistency, which analyzes the service in a strict and delicate manner; (2) Deadlock freeness; (3) Divergence freeness; and (4) Goal reach ability. The four tests are discussed and the FICS is verified to ensure that it can pass all these tests.     

Robust and stable flow shop scheduling with unexpected arrivals of new jobs and uncertain processing times

In real scheduling problems, some disruptions and unexpected events may occur. These disruptions cause the initial schedule to quickly become infeasible and non-optimal. In this situation, an appropriate rescheduling method should be used. In this paper, a new approach has been proposed to achieve stable and robust schedule despite uncertain processing times and unexpected arrivals of new jobs. This approach is a proactive–reactive method which uses a two-step procedure. In the first step an initial robust solution is produced proactively against uncertain processing times using robust optimization approach. This initial robust solution is more insensitive against the fluctuations of processing times in future. In the next step, when an unexpected disruption occurs, an appropriate reactive method is adopted to deal with this unexpected event. In fact, in the second step, the reactive approach determines the best modified sequence after any unexpected disruption based on the classical objective and performance measures. The robustness measure is implemented in the reactive approach to increase the performance of the real schedule after disruption. Computational results indicate that this method produces better solutions in comparison with four classical heuristic approaches according to effectiveness and performance of solutions.     

Fuzzy logic controller and cascade inverter for direct torque control of IM

In this paper, a five-level cascaded H-bridge multilevel inverters topology is applied on induction motor control known as direct torque control (DTC) strategy. More inverter states can be generated by a five-level inverter which improves voltage selection capability. This paper also introduces two different control methods to select the appropriate output voltage vector for reducing the torque and flux error to zero. The first is based on the conventional DTC scheme using a pair of hysteresis comparators and look up table to select the output voltage vector for controlling the torque and flux. The second is based on a new fuzzy logic controller using Sugeno as the inference method to select the output voltage vector by replacing the hysteresis comparators and lookup table in the conventional DTC, to which the results show more reduction in torque ripple and feasibility of smooth stator current. By using Matlab/Simulink, it is verified that using five-level inverter in DTC drive can reduce the torque ripple in comparison with conventional DTC, and further torque ripple reduction is obtained by applying fuzzy logic controller. The simulation results have also verified that using a fuzzy controller instead of a hysteresis controller has resulted in reduction in the flux ripples significantly as well as reduces the total harmonic distortion of the stator current to below 4 %.     

Performance evaluation of an importance sampling technique in a Jackson network

Importance sampling is a technique that is commonly used to speed up Monte Carlo simulation of rare events. However, little is known regarding the design of efficient importance sampling algorithms in the context of queueing networks. The standard approach, which simulates the system using an a priori fixed change of measure suggested by large deviation analysis, has been shown to fail in even the simplest network settings. Estimating probabilities associated with rare events has been a topic of great importance in queueing theory, and in applied probability at large. In this article, we analyse the performance of an importance sampling estimator for a rare event probability in a Jackson network. This article carries out strict deadlines to a two-node Jackson network with feedback whose arrival and service rates are modulated by an exogenous finite state Markov process. We have estimated the probability of network blocking for various sets of parameters, and also the probability of missing the deadline of customers for different loads and deadlines. We have finally shown that the probability of total population overflow may be affected by various deadline values, service rates and arrival rates.     

NN-based Prediction Interval for Nonlinear Processes Controller

Neural networks (NNs) are extensively used in modelling, optimization, and control of nonlinear plants. NN-based inverse type point prediction models are commonly used for nonlinear process control. However, prediction errors (root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) etc.) significantly increase in the presence of disturbances and uncertainties. In contrast to point forecast, prediction interval (PI)-based forecast bears extra information such as the prediction accuracy. The PI provides tighter upper and lower bounds with considering uncertainties due to the model mismatch and time dependent or time independent noises for a given confidence level. The use of PIs in the NN controller (NNC) as additional inputs can improve the controller performance. In the present work, the PIs are utilized in control applications, in particular PIs are integrated in the NN internal model-based control framework. A PI-based model that developed using lower upper bound estimation method (LUBE) is used as an online estimator of PIs for the proposed PI-based controller (PIC). PIs along with other inputs for a traditional NN are used to train the PIC to predict the control signal. The proposed controller is tested for two case studies. These include, a chemical reactor, which is a continuous stirred tank reactor (case 1) and a numerical nonlinear plant model (case 2). Simulation results reveal that the tracking performance of the proposed controller is superior to the traditional NNC in terms of setpoint tracking and disturbance rejections. More precisely, 36% and 15% improvements can be achieved using the proposed PIC over the NNC in terms of IAE for case 1 and case 2, respectively for setpoint tracking with step changes.

     

Using AR,MA, and ARMA Time Series Models to Improve the Performance of MARS and KNN Approaches in Monthly Precipitation Modeling under Limited Climatic Data

Precipitation is one of the most important components of the hydrologic cycle as it is required for multi-objective applications including flood estimation, drought monitoring, watersheds management, hydrology, agriculture, etc. Therefore, its estimation and modeling via a suitable method is a challenging task for hydrologists. The present study seeks to model monthly precipitation at two stations located in Iran. Two artificial intelligence (AI)-based models consisting of multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and k-nearest neighbors (KNN) were used as the modeling techniques. In doing so, nine single-input scenarios under limited climatic data are implemented using minimum, maximum, and mean air temperatures, dew point temperature, station pressure, vapor pressure, relative humidity, wind speed, and antecedent precipitation data. The attained results illustrate that the performance of single MARS and KNN is relatively poor when modeling the monthly precipitation. Additionally, this study develops hybrid models to enhance the precipitation modeling through combining the MARS and KNN models with three diverse types of the time series (TS) models, namely autoregressive (AR), moving average (MA), and autoregressive moving average (ARMA). The most important justification for integrating the models applied is that the AI and TS-based models are respectively capable of modeling the non-linear and linear terms of the hydrological variables such as precipitation. It is therefore necessary to be considered both of the aforementioned terms in the modeling procedure. A performance comparison of the single and hybrid models denotes the higher accuracy of hybrid models than the single ones. However, the hybrid models generated by combining the KNN and the TS models used are the best-performing models.