An architecture modeling framework for probabilistic prediction

In the design phase of business and IT system development, it is desirable to predict the properties of the system-to-be. A number of formalisms to assess qualities such as performance, reliability and security have therefore previously been proposed. However, existing prediction systems do not allow the modeler to express uncertainty with respect to the design of the considered system. Yet, in contemporary business, the high rate of change in the environment leads to uncertainties about present and future characteristics of the system, so significant that ignoring them becomes problematic. In this paper, we propose a formalism, the Predictive, Probabilistic Architecture Modeling Framework (P²AMF), capable of advanced and probabilistically sound reasoning about business and IT architecture models, given in the form of Unified Modeling Language class and object diagrams. The proposed formalism is based on the Object Constraint Language (OCL). To OCL, P²AMF adds a probabilistic inference mechanism. The paper introduces P²AMF, describes its use for system property prediction and assessment and proposes an algorithm for probabilistic inference.     

Traders, Drivers and the National Health Insurance Scheme in Small Town Ghana

Based on anthropological fieldwork in the central market and taxi station of Koforidua, Ghana, this paper aims to improve our understanding of the social dynamics in the informal economy of a Ghanaian small town in relation to state policies. It strives to describe the way processes of formalization and informalization may coexist and interact during the implementation of the recent National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) . The ethnographic approach helps us to better understand how attitudes on NHIS are formed and the way information and values are disseminated. Closely examining the social infrastructure of this setting contributes further to this understanding. In the marketplace, it is important to develop networks of personal relations with fellow traders, customers, and suppliers. At the taxi station, on the other hand, the most important strategy is to join the powerful local union. These strategies are ways for actors to gain security and protection against economic vulnerability in a competitive liberalized economy. In this regard, the NHIS has also provided opportunities for actors. While the NHIS is a way for the state to increase control over the informal economy, and gradually formalizing it, it simultaneously indirectly reinforces and confirms the existing informal strategies of networking.     

Biomass gasification cogeneration – A review of state of the art technology and near future perspectives

Biomass is a renewable resource from which a broad variety of commodities can be produced. However, the resource is scarce and must be used with care to avoid depleting future stock possibilities. Flexibility and efficiency in production are key characteristics for biomass conversion technologies in future energy systems. Thermal gasification of biomass is proved throughout this article to be both highly flexible and efficient if used optimally. Cogeneration processes with production of heat-and-power, heat-power-and-fuel or heat-power-and-fertilizer are described and compared. The following gasification platforms are included in the assessment: The Harboøre up draft gasifier with gas engine, the Güssing FICFB gasifier with gas engine or PDU, the LT-CFB gasifier with steam cycle and nutrient recycling and finally the TwoStage down draft gasifier with gas engine, micro gas turbine (MGT), SOFC, SOFC/MGT or catalytic fuel synthesis.     

New dendrimer-peptide host-guest complexes: towards dendrimers as peptide carriers

Adamantyl urea and adamantyl thiourea modified poly(propylene imine) dendrimers act as hosts for N-terminal tert-butoxycarbonyl (Boc)-protected peptides and form chloroform-soluble complexes. Investigations with NMR spectroscopy show that the peptide is bound to the dendrimer by ionic interactions between the dendrimer outer shell tertiary amines and the C-terminal carboxylic acid of the peptide, and also through host-urea to peptide-amide hydrogen bonding. The hydrogen-bonding nature of the peptide-dendrimer interactions was further confirmed by using Fourier transform IR spectroscopy, for which the NH- and CO-stretch signals of the peptide amide moieties shift towards lower wavenumbers upon complexation with the dendrimer. Spatial analysis of the complexes with NOESY spectroscopy generally shows close proximity of the N-terminal Boc group of the peptide to the peripheral adamantyl groups on the dendrimer host. The influence of side-chain motif on interactions with the host is analyzed by using seven different N-Boc-protected tripeptides as guests for the dendrimer. Downfield shifts of up to 1.3 ppm were observed for the guest amide NH-proton signals. These shifts decreased with increasing 'bulkiness' of the amino acid side chains. Despite this, the dendrimer was capable of making multiple peptide-dendrimer complexes when presented with a library of seven peptides. The different peptides were all present in the host, which did not show specific preferences, and could be released under mild acidic conditions. These results show the general nature of the peptide-dendrimer interactions in the formation of either single- or multiple-peptide-dendrimer complexes.     

Bilaterally Microstructured Thin Polydimethylsiloxane Film Production

Thin PDMS films with complex microstructures are used in the manufacturing of dielectric electro active polymer (DEAP) actuators, sensors and generators, to protect the metal electrode from large strains and to assure controlled actuation. The current manufacturing process at Danfoss Polypower A/S produces films with a one-sided microstructured surface only. It would be advantageous to produce a film with both surfaces microstructured, as this increases the film’s performance efficiency. The new technique introduced herein produces bilaterally microstructured film by combining an embossing method with the existing manufacturing process. In employing the new technique, films with microstructures on both surfaces are successfully made with two different liquid silicone rubber (LSR) formulations: 1) pure XLR630 and 2) XLR630 with titanium dioxide (TiO₂). The LSR films (～70 µm) are cast on a carrier web substrate using a coating blade. The carrier web, which has a sinusoidal corrugation with wave height of 7 µm and a wave period of 7 µm on its surface, imparts corrugations to the bottom surface of the film. The elastomer film on the carrier web is preheated to the gel point, where the elastomer film can retain an imprint made on it. The preheated film at gel point is embossed between the rolls of a gravure lab coater, which corrugates the top surface of the film. The films are then heated, in order to cure completely. For the LSR systems used in this process, the optimum conditions for preheating are 110°C for 4–7 s, while for embossing the temperature is 110°C with 25 psi pressure between the rolls at a speed of 1.4 rpm. Scanning electron microscope (SEM) images confirm the formation of microstructures on both the surfaces of the film.     

The course of bronchial asthma in adults. Factors of importance for the annual decline of lung function

The purpose of this study was to describe the relation of various factors of potential importance to the rate of decline in lung function in adults with intrinsic and extrinsic asthma. Of 180 asthmatic patients, 143 (79%) participated in a 10 year follow up examination; 94 patients had intrinsic asthma and 49 extrinsic asthma. Patients with intrinsic asthma had an annual decline in FEV1 of 50 ml, whereas those with extrinsic asthma had a decline of 23 ml; the rate of decline of lung function increased with increasing age in both groups. There was no relation between rate of decline in lung function and number of cigarettes smoked. An inverse relation between initial FEV1 and decline in FEV1 was found for the patients with extrinsic asthma but not for the patients with intrinsic asthma. A high degree of airway variability--that is, reversibility in FEV1--at the time of enrollment was found to be associated with a steeper decline in lung function in patients with intrinsic asthma, whereas increasing degrees of obstruction (decreasing FEV1/VC ratio at enrollment) and need for treatment with corticosteroids were associated with a more pronounced decline in FEV1 in patients with extrinsic asthma. The rate of decline in lung function is greater in patients with intrinsic asthma than in patients with extrinsic asthma; the prognosis for intrinsic and extrinsic asthma is to some extent influenced by different factors, which suggests that the pathogenetic mechanisms underlying intrinsic and extrinsic asthma may differ.     

The flow of phosphorus in food production and consumption -- Linköping, Sweden, 1870-2000

Phosphorus is an important substance for agricultural production of food. Being a limited resource, it is of great interest for regional, as well as global food security. At the same time it presents a pollution problem for the aquatic environment in Sweden since it contributes to eutrophication of surface waters and the Baltic Sea. This study analyses the flow of phosphorus based on consumption and production of food for an average inhabitant of a Swedish city, Link?ping, from 1870 until 2000. The study shows the changes in flows within the system of production and consumption of food, as well as between the different processes in this system, such as agriculture, food processing, consumption and waste handling, and output flows to the environment. The main changes in this system over time are a) the increasing flow of phosphorus reaching the consumer and hence the waste handling system, b) the increase in the flow of products from animal production, which mainly causes the increase in (a), and most notably c) the increased input of chemical fertilizer.     

Designing erosion management plans in Lebanon using remote sensing, GIS and decision-tree modeling

Soil erosion by water represents a serious threat to the natural and human environment in Mediterranean countries, including Lebanon, which represents a good case study. This research deals with how to use Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing, and, more specifically, structural classification techniques and decision-tree modeling to map erosion risks and design priority management planning over a representative region of Lebanon. The structural classification organization and analysis of spatial structures (OASIS) of Landsat TM satellite imagery (30 m) was used to define landscapes that prevail in this area and their boundaries, depending on their spectral appearance. The landscape map produced was overlaid sequentially with thematic erosion factorial maps (i.e., slope gradient, drainage density, rainfall quantity, vegetal cover, soil infiltration, soil erodibility, rock infiltration and rock movement). The overlay was visual and conditional using three visual interpretation rules (dominance, unimodality and scarcity conservation), and landscape properties were produced. Rills and gullies were measured in the field, and a decision-tree regression model was developed on the landscapes to statistically explain gully occurrence. This model explained 88% of the variability in field gully measurements. The erosion risk map produced corresponds well to field observations (accuracy of 82%). The landscapes were prioritized according to anti-erosive remedial measures: preventive (Pre), protective (Pro), and restorative (Res). This approach seems useful in Lebanon, but can also serve in other countries with similar geo-environmental conditions or those lacking detailed geospatial data.