An evolutionary real options framework for the design and management of projects and systems with complex real options and exercising conditions

To address the issue of decision support for designing and managing flexible projects and systems in the face of uncertainties, this paper integrates real options valuation, decision analysis techniques, Monte Carlo simulations and evolutionary algorithms in an evolutionary real options framework. The proposed evolutionary real options framework searches for an optimized portfolio of real options and makes adaptive plans to cope with uncertainties as the future unfolds. Exemplified through a test case, the evolutionary framework not only compares favorably with traditional fixed design approaches but also delivers considerable improvements over prevailing real options practices.     

A GUI for Jess

The paper describes JessGUI, a graphical user interface developed on top of the Jess expert system shell. The central idea of the JessGUI project was to make building, revising, updating, and testing Jess-based expert systems easier, more flexible, and more user friendly. There are many other expert system building tools providing a rich and comfortable integrated development environment to expert system builders. However, they are all either commercial or proprietary products. Jess and JessGUI are open-source freeware, and yet they are well suited for building even complex expert system applications, both stand-alone and Web-based ones. An important feature of JessGUI is its capability of saving knowledge bases in XML format (in addition to the original Jess format), thus making them potentially easy to interoperate with other knowledge bases on the Internet. Jess and JessGUI are also used as practical knowledge engineering tools to support both introductory and advanced university courses on expert systems. The paper presents design details of JessGUI, explains its links with the underlying Jess knowledge representation and reasoning tools, and shows examples of using JessGUI in expert system development. It also discusses some of the current efforts in extending Jess/JessGUI in order to provide intelligent features originally not supported in Jess.     

Determination of 200 °C Isothermal Section of Al-Ag-Ga Phase Diagram by Microanalysis,X-ray Diffraction,Hardness and Electrical Conductivity Measurements

Ternary Al-Ag-Ga system at 200 °C was experimentally and thermodynamically assessed. Isothermal section was extrapolated using optimized thermodynamic parameters for constitutive binary systems. Microstructure and phase composition of the selected alloy samples were analyzed using light microscopy, scanning electron microscopy combined with energy-dispersive spectrometry and x-ray powder diffraction technique. The obtained experimental results were found to be in a close agreement with the predicted phase equilibria. Hardness and electrical conductivity of the alloy samples from four vertical sections Al-Ag₈₀Ga₂₀, Al-Ag₆₀Ga₄₀, Ag-Al₈₀Ga₂₀ and Ag-Al₆₀Ga₄₀ of the ternary Al-Ag-Ga system at 200 °C were experimentally determined using Brinell method and eddy current measurements. Additionally, hardness of the individual phases present in the microstructure of the studied alloy samples was determined using Vickers microhardness test. Based on experimentally obtained results, isolines of Brinell hardness and electrical conductivity were calculated for the alloys from isothermal section of the ternary Al-Ag-Ga system at 200 °C.     

Declarative and Preferential Bias in GP-based Scientific Discovery

This work examines two methods for evolving dimensionally correct equations on the basis of data. It is demonstrated that the use of units of measurement aids in evolving equations that are amenable to interpretation by domain specialists. One method uses a strong typing approach that implements a declarative bias towards correct equations, the other method uses a coercion mechanism in order to implement a preferential bias towards the same objective. Four experiments using real-world, unsolved scientific problems were performed in order to examine the differences between the approaches and to judge the worth of the induction methods.Not only does the coercion approach perform significantly better on two out of the four problems when compared to the strongly typed approach, but it also regularizes the expressions it induces, resulting in a more reliable search process.A trade-off between type correctness and ability to solve the problem is identified. Due to the preferential bias implemented in the coercion approach, this trade-off does not lead to sub-optimal performance. No evidence is found that the reduction of the search space achieved through declarative bias helps in finding better solutions faster. In fact, for the class of scientific discovery problems the opposite seems to be the case.     

北京奥运安全倒计时

奥运会网络会运行三大系统：计时计分系统（Timing＆Scoring）、信息发布系统（IDS）以及运动会管理系统（GMS）。     

Recursive model free controller: Application to friction compensation and trajectory tracking

In this paper friction compensation and trajectory tracking scheme is proposed for an X-Y robot using a Recursive Model Free Controller (RMFC). This controller is based on the theory of piecewise continuous systems which are a particular class of hybrid systems with autonomous switchings and controlled impulses. RMFC uses only the robot position measurements and does not require knowledge of electromechanical system parameters. The proposed control scheme is validated on a real time X-Y robot system.     

Messung und Berechnung des Wärmeübergangs von einem Heizrohr an eine Kohlewirbelschicht in Wasserdampf und Inertgas

Zusammenfassung Zur Durchführung endothermer Reaktionen zwischen Gas und Feststoff in einer Wirbelschicht werden h?ufig Rohrbündel zur W?rmeübertragung eingebaut. Es wird eine wirtschaftliche Bewertung von Bündeln aus runden Rohren nach w?rmetechnischen Gesichtspunkten vorgenommen. Innerhalb des Projektes “Prototypanlage Nukleare Proze?w?rme—PNP” arbeitet die Bergbau-Forschung gemeinsam mit anderen Firmen an einem Kohlevergasungsverfahren, in dem die W?rme aus Hochtemperaturkernreaktore (HTR) genutzt wird. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird die W?rmeübertragung von einem Heizrohr an, eine gasdurchtr?mte Wirbelschicht untersucht, deren Kenntnis für die Verwirklichung der allothermen Wasserdampfvergasung wichtig ist. Im einzelnen werden theoretische und experimentelle Untersuchungen zur Aufkl?rung des Mechanismus des W?rmeübergangs vom Heizrohr an, die Wirbelschicht beim Vergasungsproze? durchgeführt. Auszug aus der Dissertation vonV. Petrovic, Aachen 1978.