Humans: the missing link in manufacturing simulation?

Computer based discrete event simulation (DES) is one of the most commonly used aids for the design of automotive manufacturing systems. However, DES tools represent machines in extensive detail, while only representing workers as simple resources. This presents a problem when modelling systems with a highly manual work content, such as an assembly line. This paper describes research at Cranfield University, in collaboration with the Ford Motor Company, founded on the assumption that human variation is the cause of a large percentage of the disparity between simulation predictions and real world performance. The research aims to improve the accuracy and reliability of simulation prediction by including models of human factors.     

Information fusion in the immune system

Biologically-inspired methods such as evolutionary algorithms and neural networks are proving useful in the field of information fusion. Artificial immune systems (AISs) are a biologically-inspired approach which take inspiration from the biological immune system. Interestingly, recent research has shown how AISs which use multi-level information sources as input data can be used to build effective algorithms for realtime computer intrusion detection. This research is based on biological information fusion mechanisms used by the human immune system and as such might be of interest to the information fusion community. The aim of this paper is to present a summary of some of the biological information fusion mechanisms seen in the human immune system, and of how these mechanisms have been implemented as AISs.     

Modelling electricity consumption in office buildings: An agent based approach

In this paper, we develop an agent-based model which integrates four important elements, i.e. organisational energy management policies/regulations, energy management technologies, electric appliances and equipment, and human behaviour, to simulate the electricity consumption in office buildings. Based on a case study, we use this model to test the effectiveness of different electricity management strategies, and solve practical office electricity consumption problems. This paper theoretically contributes to an integration of the four elements involved in the complex organisational issue of office electricity consumption, and practically contributes to an application of an agent-based approach for office building electricity consumption study.     

Uncertainty measures for probabilistic hesitant fuzzy sets in multiple criteria decision making

This contribution reviews critically the existing entropy measures for probabilistic hesitant fuzzy sets (PHFSs), and demonstrates that these entropy measures fail to effectively distinguish a variety of different PHFSs in some cases. In the sequel, we develop a new axiomatic framework of entropy measures for probabilistic hesitant fuzzy elements (PHFEs) by considering two facets of uncertainty associated with PHFEs which are known as fuzziness and nonspecificity. Respect to each kind of uncertainty, a number of formulae are derived to permit flexible selection of PHFE entropy measures. Moreover, based on the proposed PHFE entropy measures, we introduce some entropy-based distance measures which are used in the portion of comparative analysis. Eventually, the proposed PHFE entropy measures and PHFE entropy-based distance measures are applied to decision making in the strategy initiatives where their reliability and effectiveness are verified.     

Immune system approaches to intrusion detection – a review

The use of artificial immune systems in intrusion detection is an appealing concept for two reasons. First, the human immune system provides the human body with a high level of protection from invading pathogens, in a robust, self-organised and distributed manner. Second, current techniques used in computer security are not able to cope with the dynamic and increasingly complex nature of computer systems and their security. It is hoped that biologically inspired approaches in this area, including the use of immune-based systems will be able to meet this challenge. Here we review the algorithms used, the development of the systems and the outcome of their implementation. We provide an introduction and analysis of the key developments within this field, in addition to making suggestions for future research.     

An Evolutionary Squeaky Wheel Optimization Approach to Personnel Scheduling

The quest for robust heuristics that are able to solve more than one problem is ongoing. In this paper, we present, discuss and analyze a technique called Evolutionary Squeaky Wheel Optimization and apply it to two different personnel scheduling problems. Evolutionary Squeaky Wheel Optimization improves the original squeaky wheel optimization's effectiveness and execution speed by incorporating two additional steps (selection and mutation) for added evolution. In the evolutionary squeaky wheel optimization, a cycle of analysis-selection-mutation-prioritization-construction continues until stopping conditions are reached. The aim of the analysis step is to identify below average solution components by calculating a fitness value for all components. The selection step then chooses amongst these underperformers and discards some probabilistically based on fitness. The mutation step further discards a few components at random. Solutions can become incomplete and thus repairs may be required. The repair is carried out by using the prioritization step to first produce priorities that determine an order by which the following construction step then schedules the remaining components. Therefore, improvements in the evolutionary squeaky wheel optimization is achieved by selective solution disruption mixed with iterative improvement and constructive repair. Strong experimental results are reported on two different domains of personnel scheduling: bus and rail driver scheduling and hospital nurse scheduling.     

Modelling the emergence of cities and urban patterning using coupled integro-differential equations

Human residential population distributions show patterns of higher density clustering around local services such as shops and places of employment, displaying characteristic length scales; Fourier transforms and spatial autocorrelation show the length scale between UK cities is around 45 km. We use integro-differential equations to model the spatio-temporal dynamics of population and service density under the assumption that they benefit from spatial proximity, captured via spatial weight kernels. The system tends towards a well-mixed homogeneous state or a spatial pattern. Linear stability analysis around the homogeneous steady state predicts a modelled length-scale consistent with that observed in the data. Moreover, we show that spatial instability occurs only for perturbations with a sufficiently long wavelength and only where there is a sufficiently strong dependence of service potential on population density. Within urban centres, competition for space may cause services and population to be out of phase with one another, occupying separate parcels of land. By introducing competition, along with a preference for population to be located near, but not too near, to high service density areas, secondary out-of-phase patterns occur within the model, at a higher density and with a shorter length scale than in phase patterning. Thus, we show that a small set of core behavioural ingredients can generate aggregations of populations and services, and pattern formation within cities, with length scales consistent with real-world data. The analysis and results are valid across a wide range of parameter values and functional forms in the model.     

Idiotypic immune networks in mobile-robot control.

Jerne's idiotypic-network theory postulates that the immune response involves interantibody stimulation and suppression, as well as matching to antigens. The theory has proved the most popular artificial immune system (AIS) model for incorporation into behavior-based robotics, but guidelines for implementing idiotypic selection are scarce. Furthermore, the direct effects of employing the technique have not been demonstrated in the form of a comparison with nonidiotypic systems. This paper aims to address these issues. A method for integrating an idiotypic AIS network with a reinforcement-learning (RL)-based control system is described, and the mechanisms underlying antibody stimulation and suppression are explained in detail. Some hypotheses that account for the network advantage are put forward and tested using three systems with increasing idiotypic complexity. The basic RL, a simplified hybrid AIS-RL that implements idiotypic selection independently of derived concentration levels, and a full hybrid AIS-RL scheme are examined. The test bed takes the form of a simulated Pioneer robot that is required to navigate through maze worlds detecting and tracking door markers.     

Comparison of algorithms that detect drug side effects using electronic healthcare databases

The electronic healthcare databases are starting to become more readily available and are thought to have excellent potential for generating adverse drug reaction signals. The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database is an electronic healthcare database containing medical information on over 11 million patients that has excellent potential for detecting ADRs. In this paper we apply four existing electronic healthcare database signal detecting algorithms (MUTARA, HUNT, Temporal Pattern Discovery and modified ROR) on the THIN database for a selection of drugs from six chosen drug families. This is the first comparison of ADR signalling algorithms that includes MUTARA and HUNT and enabled us to set a benchmark for the adverse drug reaction signalling ability of the THIN database. The drugs were selectively chosen to enable a comparison with previous work and for variety. It was found that no algorithm was generally superior and the algorithms’ natural thresholds act at variable stringencies. Furthermore, none of the algorithms perform well at detecting rare ADRs.     

The motif tracking algorithm

The search for patterns or motifs in data represents a problem area of key interest to finance and economic researchers. In this paper, we introduce the motif tracking algorithm （MTA）, a novel immune inspired （IS） pattern identification tool that is able to identify unknown motifs of a non specified length which repeat within time series data. The power of the algorithm comes from the fact that it uses a small number of parameters with minimal assumptions regarding the data being examined or the underlying motifs. Our interest lies in applying the algorithm to financial time series data to identify unknown patterns that exist. The algorithm is tested using three separate data sets. Particular suitability to financial data is shown by applying it to oil price data. In all cases, the algorithm identifies the presence of a motif population in a fast and efficient manner due to the utilization of an intuitive symbolic representation. The resulting population of motifs is shown to have considerable potential value for other applications such as forecasting and algorithm seeding.