Uncertainty,belief, and probability1

We introduce a new probabilistic approach to dealing with uncertainty, based on the observation that probability theory does not require that every event be assigned a probability. For a nonmeasurable event (one to which we do not assign a probability), we can talk about only the inner measure and outer measure of the event. In addition to removing the requirement that every event be assigned a probability, our approach circumvents other criticisms of probability-based approaches to uncertainty. For example, the measure of belief in an event turns out to be represented by an interval (defined by the inner and outer measures), rather than by a single number. Further, this approach allows us to assign a belief (inner measure) to an event E without committing to a belief about its negation -E (since the inner measure of an event plus the inner measure of its negation is not necessarily one). Interestingly enough, inner measures induced by probability measures turn out to correspond in a precise sense to Dempster-Shafer belief functions. Hence, in addition to providing promising new conceptual tools for dealing with uncertainty, our approach shows that a key part of the important Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is firmly rooted in classical probability theory. Cet article présente une nouvelle approche probabiliste en ce qui concerne le traitement de l'incertitude; celle-ci est basée sur l'observation que la théorie des probabilityés n'exige pas qu'une probabilityé soit assignée à chaque événement. Dans le cas d'un événement non mesurable (un événement pour lequel on n'assigne aucune probabilityé), nous ne pouvons discuter que de la mesure intérieure et de la mesure extérieure de l'évenément. En plus d'éliminer la nécessité d'assigner une probabilityéà l'événement, cette nouvelle approche apporte une réponse aux autres critiques des approches à l'incertitude basées sur des probabilityés. Par exemple, la mesure de croyance dans un événement est représentée par un intervalle (défini par la mesure intérieure et extérieure) plutǒt que par un nombre unique. De plus, cette approche nous permet d'assigner une croyance (mesure intérieure) à un événement E sans se compromettre vers une croyance à propos de sa négation -E (puisque la mesure intérieure d'un événement et la mesure intérieure de sa négation ne sont pas nécessairement une seule et unique mesure). II est intéressant de noter que les mesures intérieures qui résultent des mesures de probabilityé correspondent d'une manière précise aux fonctions de croyance de Dempster-Shafer. En plus de constituer un nouvel outil conceptuel prometteur dans le traitement de l'incertitude, cette approche démontre qu'une partie importante de la théorie de l'évidence de Dempster-Shafer est fermement ancrée dans la theorie classique des probabilityés.     

High-Temperature Stress-Strain Behavior of MgO in Compression

Compressive stress-strain curves for several types of polycrystalline MgO specimens were correlated with those for single crystals and analyzed as a function of grain size and grain-boundary character at 1200° and 1400°C for several strain rates. The results for fully dense specimens were explained in terms of grain-boundary sliding and intergranular separation in addition to slip. The modification of grain-boundary nature concurrent with heat treatment for grain growth, caused by residual LUF, was associated with enhanced grain-boundary sliding and intergranular separation. For grain sizes <30 μm, it was concluded that the von Miss criteria for ductility could be relaxed by the Occurrence of dislocation climb and, to a limited extent, by intergranular separation. Yield drop corresponding to dislocation multiplication occurred when grain-boundary sliding was initially promoted. Specimens with a liquid phase of adequate viscosity also indicated plasticity accompanied by high strength. Specimens with clean grain boundaries exhibited ductility and normal strain hardening with no intergranular separation.     

Stability of Aqueous α-Al2O3 Suspensions with Poly(methacrylic acid) Polyelectrolyte

Stability of aqueous α-Al₂O₃ suspensions with Na⁺ salt of poly(methacrylic acid) (PMAA-Na) polyelectrolyte was studied as a function of pH. At a given pH, the transition from the flocculated to the dispersed state corresponded to the adsorption saturation limit of the powders by the PMAA. As the pH was decreased, the adsorption saturation limit increased until insolubility and charge neutralization of the PMAA was approached. The critical amount of PMAA required to achieve stability is outlined in a stability map.     

ELEMENTAL ANALYSIS OF GRASSES AND LEGUMES GROWING ON SOIL COVERING COAL FLY ASH LANDFILL SITES

Forage grasses and legumes growing in the soil covering four coal fly ash landfill sites in Central New York were sampled and analyzed for 20 elements. Selenium, boron and molybdenum were most consistently higher in concentration in these crops than the corresponding control plants sampled from adjacent upwind locations. Legumes absorbed greater amounts of these elements than grasses probably owing to their deep-rooted penetration of the fly ash layer below. Factors affecting the extent of absorption of these elements by the crops and the agricultural significance as related to grazing farm animals are discussed.     

Effect of Joint Thickness and Residual Stresses on the Properties of Ceramic Adhesive Joints: I, Finite Element Analysis of Stresses in Joints

The finite element method was used to determine the stress distributions in adhesive joints prepared using alumina adher-ends and silicate glass adhesives with varying thicknesses and thermal expansion coefficients. These analyses, together with the results of literature analyses for joints subjected to externally applied loads, aided in interpreting the experimental observations which are described in Part II of the paper.     

Structural and Water Binding Properties of Meat Emulsions Prepared with Emulsified and Unemulsified Fat

The structural and water binding properties of sausage emulsions containing the fat component as a pre-emulsified fat or as water and fat separately are presented. Optimal parameters of sonic emulsification were established: frequency of ultrasound, time of emulsification, and concentration of stabilizers, sodium orthophosphate, gelatin, sodium caseinate, nonfat dry milk. Comminuted meat products with pre-emulsified fat rather than unemulsified fat had higher water-binding capacity, and viscosity, which increased with time of holding. Utilization of a pre-emulsified fat in comminuted meat products resulted in an increase in the amount of emulsified fat in the finished product, a more uniform distribution of the fat component in the structure of products and a 6 - 7% increase in the yield of finished product.     

EFFECT OF GROWTH TEMPERATURE AND MEDIA ON INACTIVATION OF LISTERIA MONOCYTOGENES BY CHLORINE

The objective of this study was to determine the effect of growth environment on the susceptibility of Listeria monocytogenes to inactivation by hypochlorite sanitizer. Cells were grown in tryptic soy broth (TSB) at 35, 21, and 6°C and in 1:15 dilution of TSB (low nutrient medium, LNM) at 35°C. Late exponential phase cells were harvested, washed, and exposed to a 1 ppm sodium hypochlorite solution for periods up to 5 min. After 30 s exposure, cells grown at 35°C in TSB were reduced in number by 2.1 ± .3, at 21°C, 3.1 ± .3 and at 6°C, 3.4 ± .3 log units. After 30 s exposure to 5 ppm free chlorine cells grown at 35°C in TSB were reduced in number by 5.2 ± .2 and in LNM by 3.1 ± .1 log units. These data demonstrate that growth environment has a significant effect on chlorine inactivation of L. monocytogenes.     

SIMULATION OF FILLING AND EMPTYING IN A HEXAGONAL-SHAPE SOLAR GRAIN SILO

ABSTRACT

A new silo design for grain-storage is examined using a numerical procedure to model its 3D granular flows during the filling and emptying processes. The authors in Hemández-Cordero, et al. Korea-Australia Rheol. J. 12(1)269-281(2000)] have previously presented the design of the new silo and its observed flow behavior. Its main characteristic is the almost complete elimination of excessive dynamics stresses. Since the required computational resources to model the transient phenomena in these experiments are enormous, here, we present basic numerical results related to packing and dynamics of grains considering this complex design. Especial emphasis is given to simulate in great detail collisions of spherical grains with the walls, between themselves, as well as the complex geometry of the new silo, such as filling and unloading openings, inclined walls, etc. The interactions include compressive normal forces between grains as well as tangential forces involved in sliding and rolling between two kernels. Virtual contact mechanics valid in the vicinity of the symmetry plane of the silo are also prescribed, permitting predictions closer to experimentally observed behavior. In spite of the complexity of interactions, steady flow patterns results obtained with reasonable computational times are presented.