Analysis and numerical study of a hybrid BGM-3DVAR data assimilation scheme using satellite radiance data for heavy rain forecasts

A fine heavy rain forecast plays an important role in the accurate flood forecast, the urban rainstorm waterlogging and the secondary hydrological disaster preventions. To improve the heavy rain forecast skills, a hybrid Breeding Growing Mode (BGM)-three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) Data Assimilation (DA) scheme is designed on running the Advanced Research WRF (ARW WRF) model using the Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit A (AMSU-A) satellite radiance data. Results show that: the BGM ensemble prediction method can provide an effective background field and a flow dependent background error covariance for the BGM-3DVAR scheme. The BGM-3DVAR scheme adds some effective mesoscale information with similar scales as the heavy rain clusters to the initial field in the heavy rain area, which improves the heavy rain forecast significantly, while the 3DVAR scheme adds information with relatively larger scales than the heavy rain clusters to the initial field outside of the heavy rain area, which does not help the heavy rain forecast improvement. Sensitive experiments demonstrate that the flow dependent background error covariance and the ensemble mean background field are both the key factors for adding effective mesoscale information to the heavy rain area, and they are both essential for improving the heavy rain forecasts.     

球面-Rossby波的波谱分析和计算

用正压涡度方程分析了球面-Rossby波的波谱特征,给出了连续谱出现的条件和范围,计算出了球面-Rossby波的特征结构。结果表明:球面-Rossby波在基流角速度存在切变时可出现连续谱,其波谱是由离散谱和连续谱共同组成,连续谱和离散谱的谱函数不同,离散谱的谱函数表现为在子午圈上不同节点的波动,而连续谱的谱的谱函数表现为在子午圈上的某个纬度上出现了跳跃。     

球面正压大气的波谱分析

本文对球面上有基流的正压大气小扰动进行了波谱分析。结果表明，此时存在三支波动：一支涡旋波和一对重力惯性波。实际大气中在扰动尺度不过分小的情况下，当基流的角速度为常数时，这三支波动均为离散谱；而当基流角速度有切变时，则涡旋波有连续谱存在，而重力惯性波则仅有离散谱。重力惯性波的频率远大于涡旋波的频率，前者是快波，后者是慢波，两者频率能明显区分。