Water Resources Management - Effectively assessing crucial monitoring sites with suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is a vital challenge for achieving accurate prediction of sediment flux on... 相似文献
In this paper, a new type of inundation forecasting model with the effective typhoon characteristics is proposed by integrating support vector machine (SVM) with multi-objective genetic algorithm (MOGA). Firstly, a comparison of the proposed model and an existing model based on back-propagation network (BPN) is made to highlight the improvement in forecasting performance. Next, the proposed model is compared with the SVM-based model without typhoon characteristics to investigate the influence of typhoon characteristics on inundation forecasting. Effective typhoon characteristics for improving forecasting performance are identified as well. An application to Chiayi City, Taiwan, is conducted to demonstrate the superiority of the proposed model. The results confirm that the proposed model with the effective typhoon characteristics does improve the forecasting performance and the improvement increases with increasing lead-time, especially for long lead-time forecasting. The proposed model is capable of optimizing the input to decrease the negative impact when increasing forecast lead time. In conclusion, effective typhoon characteristics are recommended as key inputs for inundation forecasting during typhoons. 相似文献
Accurate hourly real-time flood forecasting is necessary for early flood warning systems, especially during typhoon periods. Artificial intelligence methods have been increasingly used for real-time flood forecasting. This study developed a real-time flood forecasting model by using back-propagation networks (BPNs) with a self-organizing map (SOM) to create ensemble forecasts. Random weights and biases were set for the BPNs to learn the characteristics of a catchment system. An unsupervised SOM network with a classification function was then used to cluster representative BPN weights and biases; clusters of BPNs with high accuracy were selected to act as experts for the ensemble models to forecast flow rates. The model was applied to flood events in the Wu River Basin of Taiwan. Most observed values were within the forecasting intervals of the BPN clusters in the calibration and validation phases, indicating that the models had acceptable accuracy. For the large flood events of typhoons Saola in the calibration phase and Soulik in the validation phase, the mean average error of the ensemble mean model for the cluster A was 143.1 and 327.4 m3/s, respectively; these values were lower than those for the best individual model within the cluster (194.3 and 917.9 m3/s). The ensemble model thus outperformed the individual models and can accurately forecast flood values and intervals. Therefore, the model can be used to accurately forecast floods.
In this paper, we investigate the effects of the Coriolis force in a heated plane channel flow subjected to spanwise rotation using the method of large-eddy simulation. We present both the general and simplified transport equations for the resolved turbulent stresses, which are essential for understanding the unique pattern of turbulent kinetic energy production in a rotating system. Numerical simulations are performed using primarily two dynamic subgrid-scale stress models and one dynamic subgrid-scale heat flux model; namely, the conventional dynamic model (DM) and a novel dynamic nonlinear model (DNM) for closure of the filtered momentum equation, and an advanced dynamic full linear tensor thermal diffusivity model (DFLTDM) for closure of the filtered thermal energy equation. The turbulent flow field studied herein is characterized by a Reynolds number Reτ = 150 and various rotation numbers Roτ ranging from 0 to 7.5. In order to validate the LES approach, turbulent statistics obtained from the simulations are thoroughly compared with the available experimental results and direct numerical simulation (DNS) data. A detailed comparative study has been conducted in order to evaluate the performance of the DM and DNM in terms of their prediction of characteristic features of the velocity and temperature fields and their capability of reflecting both forward and backward scatter of kinetic energy between the filtered and subgrid scales. 相似文献
In this article, we report a numerical and experimental study of turbulent dispersion of a passive scalar released from a continuous ground-level point source in a staggered array of 16 × 16 cubical obstacles. Experimental measurements of the flow and dispersion were obtained in a boundary-layer water channel using laser-induced fluorescence (for concentration) and laser Doppler velocimetry (for velocity). Numerical simulations of the flow and scalar fields for this experimental configuration were performed using two in-house computer codes based on the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) method. Results of a detailed comparison between water-channel measurements and model predictions of the mean flow, turbulence kinetic energy, mean concentration, and concentration variance are presented. An advanced model for the concentration variance dissipation rate is validated in the new context of plume dispersion within and above a staggered array of cubical obstacles. 相似文献
The conventional integral-type dynamic localization subgrid-scale stress model is a Fredholm integral equation of the second kind. This model is mathematically consistent, but it has not been widely used in the large-eddy simulation community due to the relatively high computational cost of solving the Fredholm integral equation using an iterative scheme. In this article, a direct solution scheme based on a discrete Gaussian filter is developed to solve the integral system for turbulent flow with homogeneous dimensions. The proposed direct solution scheme is computationally efficient and makes the integral-type dynamic localization subgrid-scale stress model affordable. Turbulent Couette flows with Reynolds numbers of 2,600 and 4,762 are used in numerical simulations to validate the proposed approach. 相似文献