Climate Change and Future Long-Term Trends of Rainfall at North-East of Iraq

Iraq is facing water shortage problem despite the presence of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers. In this research, long rainfall trends up to the year 2099 were studied in Sulaimani city northeast Iraq to give an idea about future prospects. The medium high （A2） and medium low B2 scenarios have been used for purpose of this study as they are more likely than others scenarios, that beside the fact that no climate modeling canter has performed GCM （global climate model） simulations for more than a few emissions scenarios （HadCM3 has only these two scenarios） otherwise pattern scaling can be used for generating different scenarios which entail a huge uncertainty. The results indicate that the average annual rainfall shows a significant downward trend for both A2 and B2 scenarios. In addition, winter projects increase/decrease in the daily rainfall statistics of wet days, the spring season show very slight drop and no change for both scenarios. However, both summer and autumn shows a significant reduction in maximum rainfall value especially in 2080s while the other statistics remain nearly the same. The extremes events are to decrease slightly in 2080s with highest decrease associated with A2 scenario. This is due to the fact that rainfall under scenario A2 is more significant than under scenario B2. The return period of a certain rainfall will increase in the future when a present storm of 20 year could occur once every 43 year in the 2080s. An increase in the frequency of extreme rainfall depends on several factors such as the return period, season of the year, the period considered as well as the emission scenario used.     

Helicoidal shell response to earthquake loads

This paper studies and analyzes the response of helical stairs as helicoidal shells in earthquake zones. The response of helical stairs under gravity loads was analyzed by both the membrane theory and finite element methods. The non-linear response of helical stairs, when subjected to UBC （Uniform Building Code） dynamic and static equivalent earthquake loads, were obtained using finite element models. These responses were compiled and analyzed in order to draw recommendations for the preliminary design of helical stairs in earthquake zones. The analysis of the results obtained showed that helical stairs are stiffer and lighter than regular ones.     

Tall building configuration effects on their response to earthquake loading

This paper studies and analyzes the response and behavior of regular and irregular building structures in earthquake zones. The non-linear dynamic response of tall buildings structures were obtained using five simulated models, which were subjected to UBC code dynamic and static equivalent earthquake loads. The maximum response of the structural models were computed and analyzed in order to verify the effects of building configuration on drift results. Drift results agreed with codes recommendations regarding building configuration and showed that regular buildings performance in resisting earthquake forces is better than that of irregular buildings.     

Water–zeolite adsorption heat pump combined with single effect evaporation desalination process

The single effect evaporation desalination process combined with adsorption heat pump (ADVC) is modeled analyzed as a function of the system design and operating parameters. The analysis gives variations in the thermal performance ratio, the specific heat transfer area, and the specific flow rate of cooling water. The performance evaluation is made as a function of the brine boiling temperature, the difference in the temperature of the compressed vapor and the boiling brine, and the water content in the adsorption bed. Results show that the thermal performance ratio of this configuration is the highest among all single effect evaporation desalination systems. Moreover, the specific flow rate of the cooling water and the specific heat transfer area are similar to those of other single effect configurations. It should be stressed these promising features makes the ADVC system highly attractive to small and remote communities and of special interest in situations where energy cost is high.     

Historical and Future Climatic Change Scenarios for Temperature and Rainfall for Iraq

The world is facing a big challenge of climatic change, mainly due to increasing concentrations of GHGs （greenhouse gases） in the atmosphere. Many researches indicated that the climate change occurred disproportionately on developing countries such as MENA （Middle East and North Africa） countries. The climatic model CGCM3.1 （T47） 2 is used in this research to explain the changes in average temperatures and the rainfall on the MENA region with special emphases on Iraq. Historical records （1900-2009） and future （2020-2099） were studied and compared; each period was divided to four sub-periods of thirty years. The results showed that the average monthly temperature for the four historical periods fluctuated between the lowest and highest value as follows： 9.2-32.9, 10.3-32.7, 9.3-32.8 and 8.6-33.9 （℃）. The rainfall for historical periods kept on the same distribution during the past 109 years, and fluctuated between the lowest and highest value of 21.3 mm and 37.6 mm with an average that reached up to 26.51 mm. For the future period, the maximum average monthly temperature reached up to 37.41 （℃） during June and minimum average monthly temperature reached up to 4.24 （℃） during January. The average monthly temperature fluctuated giving a clear impression that the future portends a higher temperature. The average monthly rainfall, for the future period, fluctuated between the lowest and highest value of 12.91 mm and 20.63 mm with an average that reached 16.84 mm which represent a reduction percentage of about 36.47% relative to the historical record of rainfall for the sanae months.     

Quadratic Discriminant Analysis Based Ensemble Machine Learning Models for Groundwater Potential Modeling and Mapping

In this study, the AdaBoost, MultiBoost and RealAdaBoost methods were combined with the Quadratic Discriminant Analysis method to develop three new GIS-based Machine Learning ensemble models, i.e., ABQDA, MBQDA, and RABQDA for groundwater potential mapping in the Dak Nong Province, Vietnam. In total, 227 groundwater wells and 12 conditioning factors (infiltration, rainfall, river density, topographic wetness index, sediment transport index, stream power index, elevation, aspect, curvature, slope, soil, and land use) were used for this study. Performance of the models was evaluated using the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristics Curve AUC (AUC) and several other performance metrics. The results showed that the ABQDA model that achieved AUC?=?0.741 was superior to the other models in producing an accurate map of groundwater potential for the Dak Nong Province. The models and potential maps produced here can help policymakers and water resources managers to preserve an optimal exploit from these vital resources.

     

伊拉克摩苏尔大坝溃坝危机与解决方案

摩苏尔大坝是一座多用途填土坝,长3.4 km,高113 m,库容11.11 km3,死库容2.95 km3。大坝位于伊拉克北部的底格里斯河,距离摩苏尔城西北约60 km。大坝建在熔岩高度岩溶的石膏、泥岩和石灰岩床上。大坝于1986年开始运行,从那时,由于石膏床溶解、存在岩溶作用、以及地下水的影响,渗流问题就开始显现了。为停止渗流,确保大坝的稳定,防渗灌浆的方案一直未停止。2014年,ISIS占领了大坝地区,停止了灌浆作业,情况恶化。对近期状况的评估表明,大坝有随时溃坝风险。一旦溃坝,将有600万人受灾、7 202 km2的土地被淹没。为了阻止这场灾难,灌浆作业应该继续进行,以延长大坝寿命。水库内水位应保持低位,以减少溃坝造成的危害。作为永久解决方案,应在摩苏尔大坝下游建造另一座大坝,以抵挡摩苏尔溃坝的下泄洪水。     

Experimental Analysis of Sediment Deposition Due to the Effect of an Upstream Reservoir Backwater

The phenomenon of aggradation due to sediment accumulation upstream reservoirs had been studied in this research. For this purpose, groups of experiments were conducted in a laboratory with 25 m long, 0.80 m wide and 0.70 m deep channel. A block was built at the end of the channel to work as a dam to impound water. The channel was supplied with drainage pipes on both sides to release water out in a manner similar to what happens in reservoirs. The bed of the channel was filled with sand of 0.80 mm median sieve diameter and 0.72 geometric standard deviation. The slope was 0.0093 for all experiments. Two sizes of sand were used representing the sediment. The median diameter and geometric standard deviation of the first were 0.365 mm and 0.46 mm, respectively. The second sample had 0.65 mm median diameter and 0.67 standard deviation. A total of 70 experiments were conducted in two groups to examine effects of sediment transport rate, particle size of sediment and flow velocity on aggradation characteristics. The results showed that there was a strong linear direct relationship between aggradation elements （length and depth） with the rate of sediment transport. Groups of dimensionless parameters affecting the aggradation characteristics were used to develop empirical equations to predict the length, maximum depth of aggradation and predict transient bed profile. The results of empirical approach were compared with the measurement data and previous numerical method. The results indicated that the percentage error was 19% to 31% for length of aggradation and -21% to 26% for maximum depth of aggradation. The results also showed that the sediment materials were deposited closer to the body of the dam when the released water from the dam is higher than the inflow.