The Effects of Cyclic Terminal Groups in 4-Aminoazo-benzene and Related Azo Dyes: Part 21—pKa Values of Some Monoazo Dyes Derived from

Basicity values have been determined for series of monoazo dyes incorporating a pyrrolidino or a piperidino moiety. In general, the pK_a value is found to decrease as the donor capacity of the terminal nitrogen atom decreases.The basicities of the 4'-substituted piperidinoazobenzenes decrease as the electron withdrawing strength of the 4'-substituent increases. However, the pK_a values of the related pyrrolidino compounds appear to be insensitive to the substituent.     

Rainbow smelt population responses to species invasions and change in environmental condition

Invasive species can cause major disruptions in native food webs, yet the impact of species introductions and whether they will become invasive appears to be context-dependent. Rainbow smelt and alewife co-exist as invasive species in the Laurentian Great Lakes and as native species on the Atlantic coast of North America, but in Lake Champlain rainbow smelt is the dominant native forage fish and alewife are invasive. Alewife became abundant by 2007, providing an opportunity to explore the dynamics of these two species in a system where only one is invasive. We used data from a 28-year forage fish survey to compare demographics of rainbow smelt populations in three basins of Lake Champlain with different volumes, nutrient levels, and predator abundances. Rainbow smelt catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) remained constant in the large, deep Main Lake before and after alewife invaded, but decreased in the two smaller basins. Declines were primarily a result of increased age-0 and age-1 mortality. Predation by top piscivores, system productivity, and competition for resources alone could not explain the patterns in CPUE across the basins. The mechanisms that allow alewife and rainbow smelt to co-exist could be related to system volume and oxythermal habitat availability, and may explain why the two species do not negatively affect each other in the Great Lakes. Summer hypoxia in the smaller basins could force individuals into smaller habitat volumes with higher densities of competitors and cannibalistic adult rainbow smelt. Habitat availability may mediate the impact of invasive alewife on native rainbow smelt.     

Towards inverse modeling of turbidity currents: The inverse lock-exchange problem

A new approach is introduced for turbidite modeling, leveraging the potential of computational fluid dynamics methods to simulate the flow processes that led to turbidite formation. The practical use of numerical flow simulation for the purpose of turbidite modeling so far is hindered by the need to specify parameters and initial flow conditions that are a priori unknown. The present study proposes a method to determine optimal simulation parameters via an automated optimization process. An iterative procedure matches deposit predictions from successive flow simulations against available localized reference data, as in practice may be obtained from well logs, and aims at convergence towards the best-fit scenario. The final result is a prediction of the entire deposit thickness and local grain size distribution. The optimization strategy is based on a derivative-free, surrogate-based technique. Direct numerical simulations are performed to compute the flow dynamics. A proof of concept is successfully conducted for the simple test case of a two-dimensional lock-exchange turbidity current. The optimization approach is demonstrated to accurately retrieve the initial conditions used in a reference calculation.     

Does palpability of primary cutaneous melanoma predict dermal invasion?

BACKGROUND: Relatively few studies have addressed the question of whether clinical estimation of melanoma thickness by palpation can accurately predict its histologic thickness. If palpability was a reliable predictor of dermal invasion, it could be used to define the surgical margin. OBJECTIVE: We sought to determine whether clinical elevation of melanoma could be used to predict the presence or absence and the degree of dermal invasion in patients with stage 1 cutaneous melanoma. METHODS: Melanomas in 165 patients were categorized by one observer as flat, just palpable, palpable, or nodular. This was compared with histologic measurements of tumor thickness. RESULTS: Overall there was significant correlation between the degree of palpability of melanoma and the presence or absence of dermal invasion (p<0.001), Breslow thickness (p<0.0001), and Clark level (p<0.001). However, the relation between palpability and Breslow thickness for invasive melanomas less than 1 mm thick was weaker (n=62, p=0.053), and the correlation between elevation and Clark level was not significant for invasive melanomas less than 4 mm thick (n=111, p>0.999). CONCLUSION: We conclude that palpability of melanoma is an inadequate guide to the presence or absence and degree of dermal invasion in melanomas less than 1 mm thick and cannot be used to determine the surgical margin.     

A life cycle approach to modeling sea lamprey population dynamics in the Lake Champlain basin to evaluate alternative control strategies

Sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) is a nuisance species in the Laurentian Great Lakes and Lake Champlain that has devastated native fish populations and hampered sport fisheries development. We developed a modified stage-based life history matrix for sea lamprey to analyze the effects of various management efforts to suppress sea lamprey population growth in Lake Champlain. These efforts targeted different life stages of the sea lamprey life cycle. A beta distribution was used to distribute stochastic larval populations among twenty sea lamprey-bearing tributaries and five deltas to Lake Champlain, from which sea lamprey that survive through larval metamorphosis were then pooled into a lake-wide parasitic-phase population. Parasitic-phase survival to the spawning stage was evaluated based on proximity to the natal tributary and on the size of the resident larval population in each tributary. Potential control strategies were modeled at egg to emergence, larval, and spawning stages to reduce vital rates at each stage, with the goal of suppressing parasitic-phase production. Simulations indicate that control of the larval stage was essential to achieving this goal, and with supplemental effort to reduce the vital rates at early life stages and at the spawning stage, the parasitic-phase population can be further suppressed. Sensitivity simulations indicate that the life history model was sensitive to egg deposition rate, abundance of parasitic-phase sea lamprey from unknown, uncontrolled sources, and the method in which parasitic-phase sea lamprey select tributaries for spawning. Results from this model can guide management agencies to optimize future management programs.     

Use of climate scenarios to aid in decision analysis for interannual water supply planning

This work addresses the issue of climate change in the context of water resource planning on the time scale of a few years. Planning on this time scale generally ignores the role of climate change. However, where the climate of a region has already shifted, the use of historical data for planning purposes may be misleading. In order to test this, a case study is conducted for a region, the Australian Capital Territory, where long term drought is raising concerns of a possible climate shift. The issue is cast in terms of a particular planning decision; the option to augment water supply in the next few years to hedge against the drought persisting. A set of climate scenarios are constructed for the region corresponding to the historical climate regime and to regimes where progressively greater levels of change are assumed to have already taken place (5%, 10%, 20% reductions in mean rainfall). Probabilities of the drought persisting are calculated for each of the scenarios. The results show substantial increases in the probability of the drought persisting for even moderate reductions in mean rainfall. The sensitivity of the decision to augment supply to the scenario results depends ultimately on the planners tolerable thresholds for the probability of the drought persisting. The use of different scenarios enables planners to explore the sensitivity of the decision in terms of their risk tolerance to ongoing drought and to their degree of belief in each of the scenarios tested.     

Exotic species in Lake Champlain

The Lake Champlain basin contains substantially fewer exotic species (N = 48) than the Great Lakes (N > 180), in part due to its isolation from commercial traffic. Exotic species have been introduced by authorized and unauthorized stocking, bait buckets, use of ornamental plants, and through the Champlain and Chambly canals that link the lake to the Hudson River, Mohawk River, Erie Canal, and the Great Lakes. Several species, such as water chestnut and zebra mussels, have had severe ecological, economic, and nuisance effects. The rate of appearance of new species increased in the 1990s, potentially as a result of increasing activity in the basin, improved water quality in the Champlain Canal, and increased sampling. Efforts to slow the introduction of new species have focused on public education and legislation to reduce bait bucket introductions and quarantine undesirable plants; however, the major remaining vector for introductions is the Champlain Canal. An estimated 20 species have entered the lake via canals, of which at least 12 used the Champlain Canal, and numerous species in the connected drainage systems could still enter via this route; some are already in the Erie Canal. Most recently (2008), the Asian clam was discovered two locks below Lake Champlain. The Lake Champlain canals also function as a conduit for exotic species exchange between the Hudson River, St. Lawrence River, and Great Lakes. The potential for future introductions could be reduced by a biological barrier on the Champlain Canal, and additional emphasis on public education.     

Differences in seasonal distribution of wild and stocked juvenile lake trout by depth and temperature in Lake Champlain

Lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) reared in hatcheries are exposed to an environment and feeding regime that is different from wild lake trout, and are stocked at substantially larger sizes with higher lipid reserves. In addition to differences in diet and growth, this early experience may alter habitat use compared to the wild cohort. We used seasonal data on the depth and temperature distribution of wild and stocked juvenile lake trout to test for differences in habitat use and inform sampling strategies to evaluate annual recruitment. Bottom trawling was conducted from 2015 to 2019 in the central basin of Lake Champlain every two to four weeks during the ice-free season. Differences in distribution of wild and stocked lake trout were most pronounced during thermal stratification, when wild juveniles were more abundant than stocked juveniles at shallower depths and warmer temperatures and stocked juveniles were more abundant at deeper depths and colder temperatures. Temperature preferences may be a consequence of different early rearing environments; wild lake trout are acclimated to lake temperatures and forage, whereas stocked fish entered the lake with high lipid content and little foraging experience. Unbiased assessment of the proportion of wild lake trout and growth and survival of the entire juvenile lake trout population using bottom trawl sampling should either take place in the pre- and post-stratification seasons when wild and stocked fish are at the same depths, or include the full range of depths and temperatures that wild and stocked fish occupy during the stratified period.     

The Lyapunov–Malkin theorem and stabilization of the unicycle with rider

This paper analyzes stabilization of a nonholonomic system consisting of a unicycle with rider. It is shown that one can achieve stability of slow steady vertical motions by imposing a feedback control force on the rider's limb.