Gaming Prediction Markets: Equilibrium Strategies with a Market Maker

We study the equilibrium behavior of informed traders interacting with market scoring rule (MSR) market makers. One attractive feature of MSR is that it is myopically incentive compatible: it is optimal for traders to report their true beliefs about the likelihood of an event outcome provided that they ignore the impact of their reports on the profit they might garner from future trades. In this paper, we analyze non-myopic strategies and examine what information structures lead to truthful betting by traders. Specifically, we analyze the behavior of risk-neutral traders with incomplete information playing in a dynamic game. We consider finite-stage and infinite-stage game models. For each model, we study the logarithmic market scoring rule (LMSR) with two different information structures: conditionally independent signals and (unconditionally) independent signals. In the finite-stage model, when signals of traders are independent conditional on the state of the world, truthful betting is a Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium (PBE). Moreover, it is the unique Weak Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium (WPBE) of the game. In contrast, when signals of traders are unconditionally independent, truthful betting is not a WPBE. In the infinite-stage model with unconditionally independent signals, there does not exist an equilibrium in which all information is revealed in a finite amount of time. We propose a simple discounted market scoring rule that reduces the opportunity for bluffing strategies. We show that in any WPBE for the infinite-stage market with discounting, the market price converges to the fully-revealing price, and the rate of convergence can be bounded in terms of the discounting parameter. When signals are conditionally independent, truthful betting is the unique WPBE for the infinite-stage market with and without discounting.     

Cardiac transplantation in perspective for the future. Survival, complications, rehabilitation, and cost

Two hundred twenty-seven cardiac transplant procedures have been performed in 206 patients from January, 1968, to April, 1981. Postoperative survival rates, calculated by the actuarial method for program years 1968 to 1973 (66 patients), are 44%, 33%, 27%, 21%, and 18% at 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years after transplantation, respectively. Postoperative survival rates for program years 1974 to 1981 (140 patients) are 63%, 55%, 51, 44%, and 39% at 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years after transplantation, respectively. This increase results primarily from improvement in survival achieved in the first 3 postoperative months (59% +/- 7%, 1968 to 1973, versus 80% +/- 40%, 1974 to 1980), reflecting improved patient management. Infection remains the primary cause of death following transplantation (76/131 patients, 58%), followed by acute rejection (24/181, 18.3%), graft arteriosclerosis (14/131, 10.7%), and malignancy (6/131, 4.6%). The development of graft arteriosclerosis has been examined in 85 one-year survivors studied by annual coronary arteriograms. Coronary lesions of varying severity have developed in 21 patients. HLA-A2 incompatibility was associated with a higher incidence of graft arteriosclerosis than was apparent for all other A locus incompatibilities (p less than 0.0003). Lymphoma has been shown to be associated with younger recipient age, a primary disease diagnosis of idiopathic cardiomyopathy, and retransplantation. One hundred six patients have survived at least 1 year after transplantation; 97% were in NYHA Class 1 at that time interval and 82% returned to employment or activity of choice. The longest survival time is new 11 years, 3 months. Cardiac transplantation can be considered "reasonable and therapeutic treatment to extend life" in selected individuals.     

Path curvature of a geared seven-bar mechanism

This paper presents a graphical technique to locate the center of curvature of the path traced by a coupler point of a planar, single-degree-of-freedom, geared seven-bar mechanism. Since this is an indeterminate mechanism then the pole for the instantaneous motion of the coupler link; i.e., the point coincident with the instantaneous center of zero velocity for this link, cannot be obtained from the Aronhold–Kennedy theorem. The graphical technique that is presented in the first part of the paper to locate the pole is believed to be an important contribution to the kinematics literature. The paper then focuses on the graphical technique to locate the center of curvature of the path traced by an arbitrary coupler point. The technique begins with replacing the seven-bar mechanism by a constrained five-bar linkage whose links are kinematically equivalent to the second-order properties of motion. Then three kinematic inversions are investigated and a four-bar linkage is obtained from each inversion. The motion of the coupler link of the final four-bar linkage is equivalent up to and including the second-order properties of motion of the coupler of the geared seven-bar. Then the center of curvature of the path traced by an arbitrary coupler point can be obtained from existing techniques, such as the Euler–Savary equation. An analytical method, referred to as the method of kinematic coefficients, is presented as an independent check of the graphical technique.     

Non-Ligand-Induced Dimerization is Sufficient to Initiate the Signalling and Endocytosis of EGF Receptor

The binding of epidermal growth factor (EGF) to EGF receptor (EGFR) stimulates cell mitogenesis and survival through various signalling cascades. EGF also stimulates rapid EGFR endocytosis and its eventual degradation in lysosomes. The immediate events induced by ligand binding include receptor dimerization, activation of intrinsic tyrosine kinase and autophosphorylation. However, in spite of intensified efforts, the results regarding the roles of these events in EGFR signalling and internalization is still very controversial. In this study, we constructed a chimeric EGFR by replacing its extracellular domain with leucine zipper (LZ) and tagged a green fluorescent protein (GFP) at its C-terminus. We showed that the chimeric LZ-EGFR-GFP was constitutively dimerized. The LZ-EGFR-GFP dimer autophosphorylated each of its five well-defined C-terminal tyrosine residues as the ligand-induced EGFR dimer does. Phosphorylated LZ-EGFR-GFP was localized to both the plasma membrane and endosomes, suggesting it is capable of endocytosis. We also showed that LZ-EGFR-GFP activated major signalling proteins including Src homology collagen-like (Shc), extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK) and Akt. Moreover, LZ-EGFR-GFP was able to stimulate cell proliferation. These results indicate that non-ligand induced dimerization is sufficient to activate EGFR and initiate cell signalling and EGFR endocytosis. We conclude that receptor dimerization is a critical event in EGF-induced cell signalling and EGFR endocytosis.     

The Tech Buzz Game [stock market prediction]

Prediction markets, also known as information or decision markets, are designed to forecast future events or trends. Internet-based prediction markets can easily aggregate the insights of an unlimited number of potentially knowledgeable people asynchronously. The Tech Buzz Game - a joint venture between Yahoo! Research Labs and O'Reilly Media - is a fantasy prediction market launched in March 2005 at the O'Reilly Emerging Technology (ETech) Conference. The game consists of multiple sub-markets that pit a handful of rival technologies, each represented by a stock, against one another. The game's object is to anticipate future search buzz and buy and sell stocks accordingly. Thus, a player who believes BitTorrent stock is undervalued might buy shares, while a player who thinks BitTorrent is overpriced might sell the stock or instead purchase shares in a competing peer-to-peer technology. The Tech Buzz Game serves two key research-oriented goals. One is to evaluate the power of prediction markets to forecast high-tech trends. The other goal of the Tech Buzz Game is to field test the dynamic pari-mutuel market, a Yahoo! Research Labs trading mechanism designed to price and allocate shares.     

Neurons, viscose fluids, freshwater polyp hydra-and self-organizing information systems

Principles of self-organisation are presented and are applied to the fields of the Web, which has developed its form from the bottom up; e-science, in which a grid of intelligent components interacted towards a greater understanding of the science concerned; peer-to-peer systems, that lend themselves to information systems that do not work with centralized authority; software and hardware agents; and mobile applications, which often defy centralized control.     

Visual function in full-term infants with hypoxic-ischaemic encephalopathy

Malignant melanoma with primary onset in the nasal cavity and paranasal sinuses remains a scarcely encountered malignancy and we report 12 cases of our own experience from 1991. These mucosal melanomas occur mainly in the elderly and present most commonly as a one sided airway obstructive syndrome with often bleeding in the nasal cavity. No sex or race ratio is found. Histological examination of the surgical specimen has been made easier since the use of immunohistochemical studies. The original site of onset is commonly located at the inferior part of the nasal cavity but in many cases, it is noted several sites of tumor localization. Despite well conducted treatment the prognosis remains quite deceiving and significantly poor. In our study, the 4-year actuarial survival was 26%. The 5-year survival rate ranges in the literature from 10% to 40%. Short and long term follow-up show an important rate of recurrence (local and lymph node metastases as well as distant metastases). The insidious evolution of the malignancy usually happens during the first year. Computed tomography and MRI are essential in the evaluation of tumor extension. The treatment is based on the combination of surgery and radiotherapy: Surgery is practised first and must ensure sufficient excision of the tumor without minimal functional or aesthetic damage in this complex region. This surgery is based on surgical approaches to the midface known as Lateral rhinotomy and midfacial degloving. When there is cervical lymph node involvement at the time of diagnosis it is suitable to treat it, even in case of recurrence. Complementary high dose radiation is required to treat tumors which could not undergo surgery and also as adjuvant therapy after removal of the mass.     

Increased intraventricular velocities: an unrecognized cause of systolic murmur in adults

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to determine the frequency, clinical features and echocardiographic characteristics of increased intraventricular velocities (IIVs) in patients referred to the echocardiography laboratory for systolic murmur. BACKGROUND: A subset of patients referred to the echocardiography laboratory for evaluation of a systolic murmur have IIVs in the absence of other recognized causes of systolic murmur. METHODS: We prospectively studied echocardiograms from 108 consecutive patients referred for evaluation of a systolic murmur. Clinical data were obtained from patient examinations and medical records. RESULTS: The sole explanation for systolic murmur was IIVs in 16.7% of referred patients. Compared with those without IIVs, patients with IIVs had a higher ejection fraction (EF) (58.7+/-7.8% vs. 51.1+/-12.5%, p < 0.001), percent fractional shortening (42.3+/-9.7% vs. 31.0+/-11.4%, p < 0.0001), left ventricular (LV) mass index (181+/-70 vs. 152+/-48 g/m2, p=0.046) and prevalence of hypertension (73.3% vs. 51.7%, p=0.043) and a lower prevalence of segmental wall motion abnormalities (2.2% vs. 39.3%, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Increased intraventricular velocities are a common cause of systolic murmur in this group of patients and should be included in the differential diagnosis of systolic murmurs in adults. The association of IIVs with LV hypertrophy should be a clinical consideration when these murmurs are identified.