Nonparametric bootstrapping of the reliability function for multiple copies of a repairable item modeled by a birth process

Nonparametric bootstrap inference is developed for the reliability function estimated from censored, nonstationary failure time data for multiple copies of repairable items. We assume that each copy has a known, but not necessarily the same, observation period; and upon failure of one copy, design modifications are implemented for all copies operating at that time to prevent further failures arising from the same fault. This implies that, at any point in time, all operating copies will contain the same set of faults. Failures are modeled as a birth process because there is a reduction in the rate of occurrence at each failure. The data structure comprises a mix of deterministic & random censoring mechanisms corresponding to the known observation period of the copy, and the random censoring time of each fault. Hence, bootstrap confidence intervals & regions for the reliability function measure the length of time a fault can remain within the item until realization as failure in one of the copies. Explicit formulae derived for the re-sampling probabilities greatly reduce dependency on Monte-Carlo simulation. Investigations show a small bias arising in re-sampling that can be quantified & corrected. The variability generated by the re-sampling approach approximates the variability in the underlying birth process, and so supports appropriate inference. An illustrative example describes application to a problem, and discusses the validity of modeling assumptions within industrial practice.     

Agglomeration and networks in spatial economies

We consider the parallel developments in the economics of agglomeration and the economics of networks. We explore the complementarities between the productivity benefits of agglomeration and those of network linkages, arguing that networks of actors dispersed over space may substitute for agglomerations of actors at a single point.JEL Classification: D20, L14, R30     

Successful Aging

This issue's Works in Progress department presents six abstracts for projects that are developing interesting solutions to the elderly's quality of life challenges. The first two abstracts discuss projects that will help provide the elderly with freedom and independence by instrumenting their environments with supportive technology. The next two abstracts discuss projects building specialized user interfaces for addressing some of the challenges associated with aging, such as vision impairment. The final two abstracts present projects that will aid independence for the elderly by providing remote monitoring and assistance.     

Interoceptive Sensitivity and Self-Reports of Emotional Experience.

People differ in the extent to which they emphasize feelings of activation or deactivation in their verbal reports of experienced emotion, termed arousal focus (AF). Two multimethod studies indicate that AF is linked to heightened interoceptive sensitivity (as measured by performance on a heartbeat detection task). People who were more sensitive to their heartbeats emphasized feelings of activation and deactivation when reporting their experiences of emotion over time more than did those who were less sensitive. This relationship was not accounted for by several other variables, including simple language effects. Implications for the role of interoception in experienced emotion and the validity of self-reported emotion are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

A taxonomy for and analysis of multi-person-display ecosystems

Interactive displays are increasingly being distributed in a broad spectrum of everyday life environments: they have very diverse form factors and portability characteristics, support a variety of interaction techniques, and can be used by a variable number of people. The coupling of multiple displays creates an interactive “ecosystem of displays”. Such an ecosystem is suitable for particular social contexts, which in turn generates novel settings for communication and performance and challenges in ownership. This paper aims at providing a design space that can inform the designers of such ecosystems. To this end, we provide a taxonomy that builds on the size of the ecosystem and on the degree of individual engagement as dimensions. We recognize areas where physical constraints imply certain kinds of social engagement, versus other areas where further work on interaction techniques for coupling displays can open new design spaces.     

Risk factors for noncompliance with glaucoma follow-up visits in a residents' eye clinic

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to identify factors associated with compliance with glaucoma follow-up visits. DESIGN: Computer records of a university residents' eye clinic were reviewed to identify a random sample of all persons who had an examination with International Classification of Disease (ICD) 9 coding (ICD9) for glaucoma suspect or glaucoma during a 2-year period (1991-1993) to undergo telephone interview. PARTICIPANTS: Those who were seen at least every 6 months regardless of earlier return instructions were defined as compliant with follow-up (controls, n = 362). Those who had any lapse between visits of longer than 6 months were defined as noncompliant (cases, n = 362). RESULTS: Interviews were completed for 196 cases and 242 controls. Noncompliant persons were significantly more likely to be suspects for glaucoma rather than to have definite glaucoma and to be dissatisfied with waiting time in the clinic (29.1% vs. 17.8%, P < 0.005) and to state that they did not take their glaucoma medications as prescribed (25.4% vs. 13.4%, P < 0.004). They also were less likely to have been prescribed eyedrop medication. A high percentage of both patients and controls knew that glaucoma can lead to blindness (85.2% and 88.4%, respectively). The most common reasons patients gave for not keeping follow-up visits were the perception that their eye problem was "not serious enough," the cost of examinations, and that the doctor did not tell them to come back. CONCLUSION: Compliance with follow-up visits for glaucoma is associated with markers for early disease. Attempts to improve compliance might focus on improved communication of the seriousness of the disease and improvements in clinic waiting time.     

Effects of additional milk replacer feeding on calf health, growth, and selected blood metabolites in calves

The objective of the experiment was to evaluate effects of increased milk replacer feeding on growth, intake, feed efficiency, and health parameters in stressed calves. Holstein bull calves (n = 120; approximately 3 to 8 d of age) were purchased from sale barns and dairy farms and housed in fiberglass hutches. In addition, wood shavings contaminated with coronavirus were mixed with clean shavings and added to each hutch before the start of the experiment. Calves were fed either a fixed amount (454 g/d) of a 20% crude protein (CP), 20% fat milk replacer to weaning at 28 d or a variable amount (454, 681, 908, and 454 g/d on d 0 to 7, 8 to 14, 15 to 31, and 32 to 41, respectively) of a milk replacer containing 28% CP and 17% fat without or with added dietary supplement containing bovine serum. Calves were also fed commercial calf starter and water ad libitum. Plasma IgG concentration in most calves on arrival at the facility was < 10 g/L. Intake, change in body weight, feed efficiency, morbidity and mortality, and selected plasma metabolites were determined. Body weight at 28 d, 56 d, daily body weight gain, intake of milk replacer, fecal scores, days with diarrhea, and days treated with antibiotics were increased with feeding variable amount of milk replacer over the 56-d study. Starter intake from d 1 to 56 was reduced from 919 to 717 g/d in calves fed fixed and variable amounts of milk replacer, respectively. Morbidity, measured as the number of days that calves had diarrhea, was increased by 53% when a variable amount of milk replacer was fed. Calves fed variable milk replacer were treated with antibiotics for 3.1 d compared with 1.9 d for calves fed 454 g of milk replacer/d. Concentrations of plasma glucose, urea N, and insulin-like growth factor-I were increased when calves were fed variable amount of milk replacer. Dietary supplement containing bovine serum had no effect on any parameter measured. There was no effect of milk replacer feeding on concentrations of nonesterified fatty acids, total protein, or growth hormone concentrations. Plasma tumor necrosis factor-α was highest in calves with the highest plasma IgG concentrations on the day of arrival and might be related to the calf's ability to identify pathogens in the environment. Under conditions of this study, calves fed variable amount of milk replacer and exposed to immunological challenge before weaning had greater BW gain, but also increased incidence of diarrhea that required added veterinary treatments.     

Effects of amount of colostrum replacer,amount of milk replacer,and housing cleanliness on health,growth, and intake of Holstein calves to 8 weeks of age

Newborn Holstein bull calves (n = 96) were assigned randomly at birth to receive 150 g (C150) or 450 g (C450) of IgG in the first 24 h of life from a lacteal-based colostrum replacer in 2 trials. Mass of product fed was 500 and 1,500 g, respectively. Replacer was reconstituted with warm water and administered by esophageal feeder at approximately 1, 6, and 12 h of age. Thereafter, calves were fed 2 L of whole milk twice daily at approximately 0700 and 1700 h until transported to the experimental facility at 2 to 3 d of age. Calves fed C450 had greater serum total protein and IgG concentrations at 2 to 3 d of age. Failure of passive transfer of immunity (serum IgG <10 g/L) was detected in 100 and 11% of calves fed C150 and C450, respectively. Calves (n = 48) in trial 1 were assigned randomly within colostrum group to receive 0.68 kg/d of milk replacer (MR) for 42 d, and then 0.34 kg/d for 7 d (moderate MR, MMR) or 1 kg/d of MR for 5 d, 1.36 kg/d for 37 d, and 0.68 kg/d for 7 d (high MR, HMR). Starter and water were available for ad libitum consumption. Calves fed HMR had greater average daily gain, higher average fecal scores, more days with abnormal fecal scores, and more medical days than calves fed MMR. Calves fed HMR also had lower starter intake and tended to have lower gain-to-feed ratio than calves fed MMR. Calves fed C450 and MMR began eating calf starter earlier and ate more starter than other groups from 3 wk. In trial 2, calves (n = 48) were assigned randomly within colostrum group to housing in nursery pens bedded with clean, dry straw (clean bedding) or soiled straw used in previous studies (dirty bedding). Milk replacer was fed at 0.68 kg/d for 39 d, and then 0.34 kg/d for 3 d along with free-choice texturized starter and water. Calves fed C450 had fewer days with abnormal fecal scores and days with medical treatments compared with calves fed C150. Calves housed in dirty bedding tended to grow more slowly and have lower gain-to-feed ratio than calves housed with clean bedding. Temporal changes in serum IgG and total protein varied by treatment. Serum IgG in calves fed C150 varied little from 0 to 4 wk and increased thereafter, whereas IgG in calves fed C450 declined to 4 wk (estimated half-life = 23.9 d) and increased thereafter. Differences in serum IgG concentrations caused by feeding different amounts of colostrum replacer did not markedly affect growth or intake when calves were fed different amounts of milk replacer or when they were housed with clean or dirty bedding.