COVID-19 hospitalization rates rise exponentially with age,inversely proportional to thymic T-cell production

Here, we report that COVID-19 hospitalization rates follow an exponential relationship with age, doubling for every 16 years of age or equivalently increasing by 4.5% per year of life (R² = 0.98). This mirrors the well-studied exponential decline of both thymus volume and T-cell production, which halve every 16 years. COVID-19 can therefore be added to the list of other diseases with this property, including those caused by methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, MERS-CoV, West Nile virus, Streptococcus pneumoniae and certain cancers, such as chronic myeloid leukaemia and brain cancers. In addition, the incidence of severe disease and mortality due to COVID-19 are both higher in men, consistent with the degree to which thymic involution (and the decrease in T-cell production with age) is more severe in men compared to women. Since these properties are shared with some non-contagious diseases, we hypothesized that the age dependence does not come from social-mixing patterns, i.e. that the probability of hospitalization given infection rises exponentially, doubling every 16 years. A Bayesian analysis of daily hospitalizations, incorporating contact matrices, found that this relationship holds for every age group except for the under 20s. While older adults have fewer contacts than young adults, our analysis suggests that there is an approximate cancellation between the effects of fewer contacts for the elderly and higher infectiousness due to a higher probability of developing severe disease. Our model fitting suggests under 20s have 49–75% additional immune protection beyond that predicted by strong thymus function alone, consistent with increased juvenile cross-immunity from other viruses. We found no evidence for differences between age groups in susceptibility to infection or infectiousness to others (given disease state), i.e. the only important factor in the age dependence of hospitalization rates is the probability of hospitalization given infection. These findings suggest the existence of a T-cell exhaustion threshold, proportional to thymic output and that clonal expansion of peripheral T-cells does not affect disease risk. The strikingly simple inverse relationship between risk and thymic T-cell output adds to the evidence that thymic involution is an important factor in the decline of the immune system with age and may also be an important clue in understanding disease progression, not just for COVID-19 but other diseases as well.     

Detector physics and simulation of resistive plate chambers

We present a simulation model suited to study efficiency, timing and pulse-height spectra of Resistive Plate Chambers. After discussing the details of primary ionisation, avalanche multiplication, signal induction and frontend electronics, we apply the model to timing RPCs with time resolution down to 50 ps and trigger RPCs with time resolution of about 1 ns.     

Predicting Forest Age Classes from High Spatial Resolution Remotely Sensed Imagery Using Voronoi Polygon Aggregation

Efficient identification of forest age is useful for forest management and ecological applications. Here we propose a user-assisted method for determining forest age using high spatial resolution remotely sensed imagery. This method requires individual trees to be extracted from imagery and represented as points. We use a local maximum filter to generate points that are converted to Voronoi polygons. Properties of the Voronoi polygons are correlated with forest age and used to aggregate points (trees) into areas (stands) based on three forest age classes. Accuracy of the aggregation ranges from approximately 68% to 78% and identification of the mature class is more consistent and accurate than the younger classes.     

Project failures in small companies

The author relates his experiences in a small software development company. These experiences show that project management is challenging and if the project manager is an obstacle, the project is bound to fail. When it does, it can spell disaster for the manager and anyone who accompanies him or her on a software development journey.     

Project to develop school education services in Delhi, India

There are many ways in which quantitative decision models can be applied in project management. The introduction of a project evaluation review technique network model to the development of a school education service in the city of Delhi, India, is described. The reasons for choosing this method, its advantages and limitations are discussed. Examples of the information obtained from the model are presented and explained.     

Coupled-mode theory of overmoded cylindrical metal bragg-reflectors

A coupled-mode theory of overmoded, cylindrical metal Bragg-reflectors is presented. The first-order Bragg coupling constants are derived for TE → TE, TM → TM, TE → TM, and TM → TE mode conversions. Reflectivities and transverse modeQ-factors are computed for a Bragg-reflector resonator. The results illustrate important competition effects between nearly-degenerate-transverse-modes occurring within both the Bragg-reflectors and the resonator.     

Longitudinal bone mineral density changes in early rheumatoid arthritis

A prospective longitudinal study of patients with early RA was performed to examine the influence of disease duration, disease activity and physical activity on bone loss. Sixty-seven patients with non-steroid treated RA of less than 5 yr duration, including 16 patients with disease duration less than 6 months, had BMD measurements of the femoral neck and the lumbar spine over a 12-month period using dual energy X-ray absorptiometry. The BMD changes were compared with values from 72 control patients and were also correlated with serial measurements of disease activity (measured by the Stoke Index) and disability [measured by the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) score], at 3-monthly intervals over the 12-month period. No significant differences in BMD changes were found between RA patients and controls overall. Patients with disease duration of less than 6 months had significantly greater loss of BMD at the femoral neck (-3.9%, S.E.M. 1.5) than the remainder of the cohort (-0.2%, S.E.M. 0.7) (P = 0.02) and controls (-0.8%, S.E.M. 0.6). Lumbar spine BMD changes correlated with the initial Stoke Index (Rs-0.373, P = 0.01) but not mean Stoke Indices. There was no correlation of BMD changes with age or HAQ scores. These findings suggest that significant bone loss occurs within the first few months of disease in patients with RA.     

Transrectal electrostimulation therapy for neuropathic bowel dysfunction in children with myelomeningocele

PURPOSE: We attempted to evaluate the efficacy of transrectal bowel stimulation for neurogenic bowel dysfunction in children with myelodysplasia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Daily sessions of transrectal electrostimulation were performed on an outpatient basis for 2 to 3 weeks on children with myelodysplasia and stool incontinence. If benefits were noted, 5 to 10 additional daily sessions were performed. Complete success was defined as improvement in all parameters of interest, including decrease in the frequency of daily bowel movements, increased sensation, increased ability to hold stool and a significant subjective change in bowel habits. Moderate success implied improvement in 1 to 3 parameters and treatment failure was defined as lack of improvement in any parameter. RESULTS: A total of 55 children 2 to 14 years old (mean age 6.7) completed a mean of 18 daily sessions per patient of bowel electrostimulation. Followup ranged from 1 to 6 years. Diapers are no longer required due to defecation problems in 14 children older than 3 years. Complete success was achieved in 20 cases (36.3%) and moderate success in an additional 30 (54.5%, overall success rate 90.8%). Specifically, 89% of the patients reported elimination of stooling accidents, 82% reported increased sensation and 71% were able to hold the bowel movement. Overall 68% of the patients noticed significantly improved bowel function. Complete/moderate success of transrectal electro-stimulation was statistically significant for all 4 parameters (p < 0.05), and complete success was significant for increased sensation, ability to hold and episodes of accidents. Therapy failed in 5 children (9%). There were no untoward effects. CONCLUSIONS: Transrectal electrostimulation is a well tolerated and minimally invasive modality that provides sustainable improvement in stool continence in children with myelomeningocele and neuropathic bowel dysfunction.